Ethereum vs Bitcoin in November 2026: ETH Is Just 2.96% of One BTC — 5 Numbers That Decide Which One Wins Next
One ether now buys 2.96% of a bitcoin — a 4-year low. ETH is 54% below its $4,951 peak while BTC is 40% off its high, yet Ethereum just set a record 15.4 million active addresses. Here are the 5 numbers that decide which one wins the next leg.
One ether now buys just 2.96% of a bitcoin. That is the lowest the ETH/BTC ratio has been in four years — and it comes in a week when Ethereum's own network just set a record for usage. Ethereum is 54% below its all-time high while Bitcoin is 40% below its own, yet ETH is the coin quietly gaining ground on BTC this week. The question every holder is really asking is simple: at these prices, which one wins the next leg — the $76,000 digital gold, or the $2,245 network that pays you to hold it?
This is not a guess. Five numbers — the ratio itself, the ETF flows, the on-chain activity, the staking yield and the 2031 valuation gap — decide the answer, and they point in different directions. Here is what each one says, and what has to happen for Ethereum to finally stop losing to Bitcoin.
Number 1: The ETH/BTC Ratio Is 0.0296 — a 4-Year Low
The ETH/BTC ratio tells you how much bitcoin one ether is worth. On November 7, 2026, it sits at 0.0296, meaning one ETH costs 2.96% of one BTC. On November 1 it touched 0.0289, the lowest reading in four years, before bouncing to 0.0302 on November 4 and settling back near 0.0295. Ether needs only about 1.6% more outperformance against bitcoin to reclaim the psychologically important 0.03 level — at that point, one bitcoin buys about 33 ETH instead of today's roughly 34.
The ratio matters because it strips out the dollar noise. Both coins fell this week — Bitcoin to about $76,000 and Ethereum to about $2,245 — but between November 1 and 2, Bitcoin fell 2.0% while Ether fell only 1.1%. On November 7, ETH is up 1.02% in 24 hours against Bitcoin's 0.43%, according to Blockchain Reporter's November 7 market brief. Ether is losing the war but winning the last few battles, and that is exactly what a bottom in a ratio looks like before it forms — or what a dead-cat bounce looks like before the next leg down. The rest of this article separates the two.
For context, Ethereum's market value of about $274.6 billion is now just 18.0% of Bitcoin's $1.53 trillion. Bitcoin dominance stands at 59.3%; Ethereum's share is 10.6%, down from 11.55% a month ago. The altseason index reads 46, down from 50 a week earlier and still 29 points below the 75 threshold that defines altcoin season. Money is not rotating into Ethereum yet. It is rotating into Bitcoin — or into cash.
Number 2: The Drawdown Gap — ETH Is 54% Off Its High, BTC Is 40% Off Its Own
Ethereum hit its all-time high of $4,951.66 on August 24, 2025, according to LiteFinance's ETH price data. At $2,245, it is 54.7% below that peak. Bitcoin's all-time high is $126,156; at $76,000 it is 39.7% below its peak. The gap between those two drawdowns — roughly 15 percentage points — is the whole story of 2026 in one number.
The year-to-date figures tell the same story. Ethereum is down 25.3% in 2026; Bitcoin is down 14.4%. Over the last twelve months, ETH is down 34.7% and BTC is down 26.4%. October was brutal for Ether specifically: a 16% monthly loss, the worst major-cap performance of the month, driven by Layer-2 fee cannibalization, post-Dencun blob-fee dynamics that weakened ETH's burn, and capital rotation into Bitcoin dominance and faster networks such as Solana.
But drawdowns cut both ways. The coin that has fallen further has further to climb back. If both coins simply returned to their all-time highs, Bitcoin would gain about 66% from here; Ethereum would gain about 120%. That asymmetry is the core of the bull case for ETH — and the core of the bear case too, because a coin that falls further in a sell-off is, by definition, the riskier asset to hold through one.
Number 3: ETF Flows — $626 Million Left ETH Funds in 7 Sessions
US spot Ethereum ETFs recorded $99.9 million in outflows on November 5 and $93.3 million on November 6 — roughly $193 million in two days, according to Alpha Finance's live Ethereum ETF dashboard. Over the last seven sessions, the outflow total is $626.4 million. BlackRock's ETHA accounted for $90.8 million of the November 6 outflow alone; it remains the largest ETH ETF at $8.61 billion in assets, about 59.6% of the complex. Total ETH ETF net assets stand at $12.84 billion, about 4.71% of Ethereum's market capitalization, with cumulative net inflows since launch of $11.88 billion.
Bitcoin's ETFs are bleeding too — $842.1 million left across the November 5 and 6 sessions, including $430.2 million on November 5 — but the scale is different. Bitcoin's ETF complex is an order of magnitude larger, so the same dollar outflow is a smaller wound. The telling detail is the ratio of pain: ETH funds have now seen sustained selling for over two weeks, with the October 29 outflow of $105.5 million the heaviest single day, and the selling continued even as ETH bounced above $2,400 on November 4.
There is one crack of light. BlackRock's ETHB — the only staking-enabled ETH ETF, offering roughly 3% annualized yield with a 0.12% first-year fee — was the only fund to attract fresh money on November 6, taking in $1.15 million while every other fund bled. Investors are not buying Ethereum. They are buying Ethereum's yield. That distinction matters, and it leads directly to number four.
Number 4: Ethereum Pays You 3–5% to Hold It — Bitcoin Pays Nothing
This is the single biggest structural difference between the two assets, and the one most comparisons skip. More than 32 million ETH — about 26% of supply — is staked on-chain, earning holders roughly 3–5% a year. Bitcoin pays no yield at all. Over a five-year holding period, a 3% staking yield compounds to roughly 16% of extra ETH, before any price move. That is a real, mechanical advantage that has nothing to do with market sentiment.
The advantage is widening, not narrowing. Staking-enabled ETF products are now live, which means the yield is reaching investors who would never run a validator. And Ethereum's network is being used more than ever: ecosystem active addresses hit a record 15.4 million, up 62.7% in seven days, according to AInvest's November 2 Ethereum briefing, gas fees sit at a historically low 0.05 gwei, the network supports $142.5 billion in stablecoins and $46 billion in DeFi deposits. Usage is at an all-time high while the price is 54% off its high. That divergence — record usage, depressed price — is either the best buying signal in crypto or proof that usage no longer drives price. The honest answer is that nobody knows yet, which is why the next number matters most.
Number 5: The 2031 Valuation Gap — CoinShares Sees ETH at $4,935 in Its Base Case
CoinCentral's report on the CoinShares framework puts the scenarios at $1,443 bearish, $4,935 base and $14,135 bullish for 2031. The base case alone implies a 120% gain from today's $2,245. The bearish case implies a further 36% fall.
Compare that with Bitcoin's own setup. Bitcoin sits just above its 50-week moving average near $75,559, with its 30-day closing range running from $75,775 to $84,082. The December Fed hike odds have climbed toward 80% after a hot October jobs report — 165,000 payrolls against 65,000 expected, as covered in CoinJuice's November 7 Bitcoin brief — and the October CPI report lands on November 10. Bitcoin's near-term path is hostage to macro data. Ethereum's near-term path is hostage to the same macro data plus its own catalysts: the Glamsterdam upgrade, whose Hoodi testnet activation was postponed again on November 6, and the slow rollout of staking in ETFs.
Put together, the five numbers say this: Bitcoin is the safer asset and the better trade in a fearful market; Ethereum is the cheaper asset with the better long-term math, if — and only if — its ratio stops making new lows.
Ethereum vs Bitcoin: The Full Comparison
| Metric | Bitcoin (BTC) | Ethereum (ETH) |
|---|---|---|
| Price (Nov 7, 2026) | ~$76,000 | ~$2,245 |
| Distance from all-time high | -40% ($126,156 peak) | -54.7% ($4,951.66 peak) |
| Year-to-date 2026 | -14.4% | -25.3% |
| Last 12 months | -26.4% | -34.7% |
| Market cap | ~$1.53 trillion | ~$274.6 billion |
| Market dominance | 59.3% | 10.6% |
| ETF flows, Nov 5–6 | -$842.1 million | -$193.2 million |
| ETF flows, last 7 sessions | Heavy outflows | -$626.4 million |
| Staking yield | 0% — no yield | ~3–5% a year |
| Supply model | Capped at 21 million | No cap; burn offsets issuance |
| Record network usage | Store of value | 15.4M active addresses (ATH) |
| Key near-term level | $75,775 (30-day low) | $2,200 support / $2,450 resistance |
The table makes the trade-off visible. Bitcoin wins on safety, size and momentum. Ethereum wins on yield, upside asymmetry and network usage. There is no objectively "better" coin — there is a better coin for a specific market regime, and the regime right now is fear: the Crypto Fear & Greed Index reads 25–27, in Extreme Fear, and Bitcoin is behaving like the defensive asset.
Three Scenarios for the ETH/BTC Ratio
The ratio is the scoreboard. Here is what each path looks like, and what would cause it.
| Scenario | ETH/BTC target | What it means | What triggers it |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bull — ETH outperforms | 0.035 and above | ETH gains ~18% on BTC | Staking ETF inflows build, Glamsterdam ships cleanly, ratio reclaims 0.03 and holds it |
| Base — range continues | 0.028 – 0.032 | ETH tracks BTC, no edge either way | Macro stays choppy into the November 10 CPI print; ETF outflows slow but do not reverse |
| Bear — ETH bleeds further | Below 0.028 | New 4-year low; ETH underperforms again | ETH loses $2,200 support, ETHA outflows accelerate, Layer-2 fee drain continues |
The base case is the most likely in the next two weeks: a choppy range while the market waits for the CPI report and the December Fed decision. The bull case needs a catalyst, and the most credible one is flows, not headlines — sustained inflows into staking-enabled ETH ETFs would be the first hard evidence that institutions are buying Ethereum for its yield rather than selling it as a risk asset.
What Most People Get Wrong About Ethereum vs Bitcoin
The most common mistake is treating this as a technology debate. It is a flows debate. Ethereum's technology case — smart contracts, stablecoins, DeFi, tokenization — is stronger than ever by every usage metric, and the price still fell 16% in October. Bitcoin's technology has not changed at all, and it fell less. In a fearful market, flows beat fundamentals, and Bitcoin's flows are bigger, deeper and stickier.
The second mistake is reading the ETH/BTC ratio as a buy signal by itself. A 4-year low is not a floor — it is a trend, and trends in this ratio have lasted years. The ratio has been grinding lower since 2022. Buying a falling ratio because it "can't go lower" has been wrong for four years. What changes the call is a reclaim of 0.03 with ETF inflows behind it, not the low itself.
The third mistake is ignoring the yield. A 3–5% staking yield sounds small next to 100% price swings, but over a multi-year hold it is the difference between owning an asset that pays you and one that costs you in opportunity terms. It is also the reason BlackRock's staking ETF was the only ETH fund to take in money on November 6. The market is already telling you which feature it values.
The Verdict: Which One Wins Next?
For the next few weeks, Bitcoin. It is holding its 50-week average, its dominance is rising, and in an Extreme Fear market the larger, more liquid asset with the deeper ETF complex is where capital hides. Ethereum just lost its 200-day average, its RSI sits at 38.65, and $210 million in ETH liquidations hit in 24 hours on November 6. The path of least resistance for ETH in the short term is still down toward the $2,200 support, and below that $2,000.
For the next few years, the math favors Ethereum — if the ratio stabilizes. A 120% run back to its all-time high, plus a 3–5% annual yield, plus record network usage, is a combination Bitcoin cannot match from these levels, because Bitcoin is already the consensus holding. But "if the ratio stabilizes" is doing a lot of work in that sentence. Until ETH reclaims 0.03 and holds it with real inflows, the smart positioning is Bitcoin as the core holding and Ethereum as the calculated bet — sized for a scenario where the four-year bleed finally ends, not for a hope that it ends tomorrow.
Watch three things this week: whether ETH holds $2,200, whether the November 10 CPI report moves December hike odds off 80%, and whether ETHB keeps taking in money while ETHA keeps losing it. The first fund-flow print that shows staking ETFs winning the flow war is the moment this comparison flips.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the ETH/BTC ratio right now?
The ETH/BTC ratio is about 0.0296 on November 7, 2026, meaning one ether is worth 2.96% of one bitcoin. It touched 0.0289 on November 1, a four-year low, and needs roughly 1.6% more outperformance from ETH to reclaim 0.03.
Is Ethereum a better buy than Bitcoin in November 2026?
It depends on your horizon. Short term, Bitcoin is the safer asset: it is holding its 50-week average, its dominance is 59.3%, and it fell less in the sell-off. Long term, Ethereum offers more upside from these levels — about 120% back to its $4,951 all-time high versus about 66% for Bitcoin — plus a 3–5% staking yield that Bitcoin does not pay. The key condition is the ETH/BTC ratio stabilizing above 0.03.
Why is Ethereum down more than Bitcoin in 2026?
ETH is down 25.3% year-to-date against BTC's 14.4%. The drivers are Layer-2 fee cannibalization that weakened ETH's burn, post-Dencun blob-fee dynamics, sustained ETF outflows ($626.4 million over the last seven sessions), capital rotation into Bitcoin dominance, and the postponed Glamsterdam upgrade. October alone cost ETH 16%.
Will Ethereum reach $10,000?
No major published framework puts ETH at $10,000 soon. CoinShares' 2031 scenarios are $1,443 bearish, $4,935 base and $14,135 bullish. ETH would need to more than quadruple from $2,245 to reach $10,000, which would require a full bull market plus successful scaling and staking adoption. Treat $10,000 as a long-term bull-case dream, not a forecast. For a deeper look at the long-term ETH outlook, see our Ethereum price prediction for 2027.
Does Ethereum staking make it better than Bitcoin?
Staking is a genuine structural edge: over 32 million ETH (about 26% of supply) earns roughly 3–5% a year, and staking-enabled ETFs such as BlackRock's ETHB now pass that yield to fund investors. Over five years that compounds to roughly 16% more ETH. But yield does not protect against price falls — ETH still lost 16% in October — so staking improves the long-term hold, it does not fix the short-term trend.
What would make Ethereum outperform Bitcoin?
Three things: the ETH/BTC ratio reclaiming and holding 0.03, sustained inflows into staking-enabled ETH ETFs instead of outflows from plain ETH funds, and a clean Glamsterdam upgrade delivery. The single most important signal is flows — the first week where ETH ETFs take in more than BTC ETFs on a relative basis is the moment the four-year rotation reverses.
Before deciding anything, it is worth reading the basics properly. Our guide to whether Bitcoin is a good investment in 2026 covers the risk framework, our explainer on the Crypto Fear and Greed Index shows how to read today's Extreme Fear print, and our Bitcoin vs stocks comparison puts the crypto-versus-traditional-assets choice in context. For the other side of this debate, see Bitcoin vs gold in 2026. This article is market analysis, not investment advice — prices move fast, and every number here is a snapshot from November 7, 2026.
