Ethereum Crashed 8% While Bitcoin Fell 5.5%: ETH Just Lost Its 200-Day Average — 5 Numbers That Decide $2,000 or $2,400

Ethereum just fell harder than Bitcoin in a single day — down 8% to about $2,240 while Bitcoin dropped 5.5% to roughly $76,000 — and in the process ETH lost its 200-day moving average, the line that has defined its trend all year. More than $1.08 billion in crypto positions were liquidated in 24 hours. The question now is not whether Ethereum is weak — it is whether $2,000 or $2,400 comes first, and the answer depends on five numbers this article breaks down.

The sell-off was not a crypto-only story. The Nasdaq fell 5.52% on November 5, its worst day since April 2025, as AI and chip stocks collapsed on fears that Democratic midterm wins could mean tighter rules on data centres and artificial intelligence. Nvidia and Broadcom each lost about 5%, Tesla fell roughly 9%, and the S&P 500 shed 4.36%. Crypto, which had briefly rallied above $80,000 after the midterms, gave it all back — and Ethereum gave back more than Bitcoin.

What Happened Overnight: The Nasdaq Dragged Crypto Down With It

Bitcoin had climbed back above $80,000 on Wednesday, November 4, after the US midterm results, helped by a short squeeze of roughly $380 million and $74.6 million in net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs. By Thursday evening it was trading near $75,900, and on Friday morning, November 6, it sat around $76,000 — down 5.5% in 24 hours and more than 40% below its all-time high of $126,080.

Ethereum's fall was steeper. ETH dropped to an intraday low near $2,216.58, down 8.51% at its worst point, before recovering slightly to around $2,240. XRP fell about 5.5% to $1.21, Solana slid 5.5% to around $90, and Dogecoin dropped more than 6%. Total crypto market capitalisation fell to roughly $2.55 trillion, down more than 5% in a day. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index sits at 34 — firmly in "Fear" territory.

The speed of the move caught leveraged traders off guard. Around $370 million in crypto positions were liquidated in roughly one hour as Bitcoin fell below $77,000, according to Bitcoin Magazine, and total 24-hour liquidations topped $1.08 billion, according to Coinglass data. When leverage unwinds that fast, the assets with the most leveraged long positions fall the furthest — and this week, that was Ethereum.

Attention now turns to the October US jobs report, due today, Friday November 6, with economists expecting around 65,000 jobs. The October consumer price index follows on November 10, and the Federal Reserve makes its next decision on December 9. Any of the three can flip the market's direction in minutes.

Ethereum vs Bitcoin: 5 Numbers That Decide $2,000 or $2,400

Both coins are falling, but they are not falling the same way. Bitcoin is testing its 200-day average from above; Ethereum has already lost its own. Here is the head-to-head picture as of Friday morning, November 6:

Number	Ethereum (ETH)	Bitcoin (BTC)
Price	~$2,240	~$76,000
24-hour move	-7.5% to -8.5%	-5.5%
200-day moving average	$2,315 — LOST	$76,497 — testing
Distance from all-time high	-55% (ATH $4,954, Aug 2025)	-40% (ATH $126,080)
30-day performance	-16%	-8.6% to -11%
Year-to-date	-23.5%	-10.1%
ETF flows (October)	Over $1.6B in outflows	Net outflows, then $74.6M inflow Nov 4

The most important row is the 200-day average. FXStreet's technical analysis puts Ethereum's 200-day exponential moving average at $2,315, with the 100-day at $2,348 and the 50-day at $2,397 stacked overhead — three layers of resistance now sitting above the price. Bitcoin, by contrast, trades just under its 200-day average at $76,497, with its 100-day at $77,778 and 50-day at $79,837 above it. Both coins are below their trend lines, but Ethereum is further below its own, and its 30-day loss of 16% is roughly double Bitcoin's.

The second number that matters is the ETH/BTC ratio. It traded near 0.02955 on November 3 after breaking above a descending trendline that had capped every rebound since the summer, according to charts shared by analysts Max Crypto and Ash Crypto. That breakout was supposed to mark the end of Ethereum's underperformance against Bitcoin. Two days later, the ratio is under pressure again — and if ETH keeps falling faster than BTC, the breakout fails and the "ETH is about to outperform" thesis dies with it.

Why Ethereum Fell Harder Than Bitcoin

There are four reasons ETH bled more than BTC in this sell-off, and none of them is a mystery.

First, the ETF money has been leaving Ethereum for weeks. US spot Ethereum ETFs recorded $139.7 million in net outflows on November 2 alone, with BlackRock's ETHA accounting for $138.3 million of it. Across the six trading sessions from October 26 to November 2, combined net withdrawals reached $571.1 million — every single session finished negative. Across October as a whole, Ether exchange-traded products suffered more than $1.6 billion in net outflows. Bitcoin ETFs had their own rough patch — about $1.16 billion in outflows across three sessions — but they flipped back to a $74.6 million inflow on November 4. Ethereum's funds have not flipped yet.

Second, Ethereum carries more leverage. ETH is the favourite vehicle for leveraged long bets among altcoin traders, and when the Nasdaq sell-off hit, those positions were the first to be force-closed. The $370 million liquidated in a single hour was concentrated in long positions, and ETH's deeper fall is the fingerprint of that unwind.

Third, the regulatory fear hits Ethereum harder. The Democratic sweep of Congress raised fears of tighter rules on artificial intelligence and data centres — and the same political shift complicates the CLARITY Act, which failed a Senate cloture vote 49–50 in September. Ethereum, as the home of DeFi, tokenisation and most on-chain activity, is more exposed to any regulatory tightening than Bitcoin, which politicians increasingly treat as a separate, simpler asset.

Fourth, the Binance overhang has not lifted. The $6.3 billion Binance hack — attributed to North Korea — froze withdrawals for days and is still weighing on confidence in centralised platforms. Ethereum's ecosystem lives on exchanges and DeFi protocols in a way Bitcoin's does not, so exchange-risk headlines hit ETH first.

For readers new to the asset, our guide What Is Ethereum? The Complete Beginner's Guide explains how the network works and why it behaves differently from Bitcoin in a sell-off. And if you are weighing the two coins right now, Bitcoin vs Ethereum in November 2026 compares them head to head on the latest numbers.

The Contrarian Case: 3 Reasons Ethereum Could Bounce First

A crash story that only lists reasons to sell is only half the picture. There are three genuine reasons Ethereum could recover faster than Bitcoin from here — and the first one is the most surprising.

On-chain activity just hit an all-time high. While the price was bleeding in early November, Ethereum's on-chain activity surged to record levels, according to AInvest's November 2 briefing. People are using the network more than ever even as the price falls. That is the opposite of a dying chain: usage and price have decoupled, and historically, usage leads price over months, not days. AInvest's report puts ETH near $2,265 at the time with a cautiously bullish bias on a one-to-three-week horizon, contingent on holding the $2,200 demand zone.

Whales are buying while ETFs are selling. One Ethereum whale bought $63 million of ETH at $2,286 while ETFs dumped $1.61 billion, as we reported earlier this week. Whale wallets and ETF flows are telling opposite stories: institutions selling through funds, large holders accumulating on-chain. When those two diverge, the whales have been right more often than the funds in past cycles — though not always, and not immediately.

The ETH/BTC breakout has not failed yet. The trendline break on November 3 was real, and the ratio is still near 0.02955. If Ethereum holds its ground against Bitcoin through today's jobs report, the breakout survives and the technical case for ETH outperformance stays alive. If ETH falls another 5% while BTC holds $76,000, it fails — and that binary outcome is exactly what makes the next 48 hours so important.

There is also a structural support that Bitcoin does not have: staking. BlackRock's ETHB is the only staking-enabled ETH ETF, offering around 3% annualised yield, and our staking guide explains how ETH holders earn rewards for securing the network — income that does not exist for Bitcoin holders and that gives long-term ETH holders a reason to sit through volatility rather than sell it.

Bull, Base and Bear: 3 Scenarios for Ethereum

Scenario	Trigger	Price target	Probability
Bull — $2,400	Jobs report comes in soft, rate-cut bets rise, ETH reclaims $2,315 (200-day average) and $2,348 (100-day)	$2,400–$2,420	25%
Base — $2,240 holds	Jobs report roughly as expected (65,000 jobs), markets chop sideways, $2,200 demand zone holds	$2,200–$2,350 range	45%
Bear — $2,000	Jobs report hot, December hike bets surge, ETH loses $2,200 and $2,160 support	$2,000–$2,100	30%

These are scenarios, not predictions. The base case is a range, not a direction: Ethereum chopping between $2,200 and $2,350 while the market waits for the November 10 inflation report and the December 9 Fed decision. The bull case needs ETH to reclaim its 200-day average at $2,315 — until it does, every rally is a rally into resistance. The bear case needs a hot jobs number today; a strong payrolls print would push December hike odds higher and punish risk assets across the board.

Note what the scenarios have in common: the levels matter more than the headlines. $2,315 is the line between a bounce and a breakdown. $2,200 is the demand zone that has held since the Binance hack sell-off. $2,000 is the round number where buyers stepped in during earlier corrections — and where a break would open the door to a much deeper slide.

What Most People Get Wrong About Ethereum in a Crash

Myth 1: "Ethereum falls more because it is weaker." Wrong. Ethereum falls more because it is more leveraged and more traded, not because its fundamentals deteriorated this week. Its on-chain activity hit an all-time high in the same week its price fell 16% in a month. Price and usage are telling different stories.

Myth 2: "ETF outflows mean institutions have abandoned ETH." Wrong. ETF flows are one channel. The same week ETFs lost $571 million, a single whale bought $63 million on-chain and network activity set records. Institutions use ETFs, funds and direct custody — and the flows through those channels do not all point the same way.

Myth 3: "Losing the 200-day average means a bear market." Wrong — it means the short-term trend is down, not that the asset is finished. Bitcoin itself is sitting below its own 200-day average right now. Both coins lost the line in the same week, driven by the same Nasdaq sell-off. The 200-day average is a signal, not a sentence.

Myth 4: "Staking yields protect ETH in a crash." Partly wrong. A 3% staking yield does not stop an 8% daily fall. What staking does is change holder behaviour: staked ETH cannot be sold instantly, which reduces panic supply — but it does not create demand when the whole market is selling.

For a longer-term view on whether ETH is worth holding through volatility like this, see Is Ethereum a Good Investment in 2026? — and if you are considering buying your first ETH, How to Buy Ethereum in 2026 walks through the process step by step.

Checklist: 5 Checks Before You Buy the Ethereum Dip

If you are thinking about buying ETH at $2,240, run through this checklist first. It is not financial advice — it is the discipline that separates a plan from a gamble.

• Check the 200-day average first: is ETH above or below $2,315? Buying below a falling 200-day average is catching a falling knife; wait for a reclaim or buy in tranches.
• Check the jobs report reaction: today's payrolls print sets the tone for the Fed's December decision. Do not buy the dip before the number lands.
• Check ETF flows, not just price: one day of inflows after $1.6 billion in October outflows is not a reversal. Look for two or three consecutive inflow days.
• Check the ETH/BTC ratio: if ETH keeps falling faster than BTC, the relative trade is broken — wait for the ratio to stabilise near 0.02955 before adding.
• Check your position size: ETH is down 16% in 30 days and 55% from its all-time high. Size any buy so that a further fall to $2,000 does not force you to sell.

What Happens Next: 3 Dates That Decide Ethereum's November

Today, November 6 — the October jobs report. Economists expect around 65,000 jobs. A soft number supports rate-cut bets and risk assets; a hot number pushes December hike odds higher — Kalshi already put the chance of a December hike at 66% as of November 5. This is the single biggest near-term catalyst for ETH.

November 10 — the October CPI inflation report. If inflation comes in cool, the Fed has room to cut in December and crypto rallies. If it runs hot, the hike bets harden and the $2,000 scenario comes into play.

December 9 — the Federal Reserve decision. The meeting that decides whether the market's rate path is a cut, a hold or a hike. Everything between now and then — jobs, inflation, ETF flows — is the market pricing that decision in advance.

Beyond the calendar, watch two market signals: whether spot Ethereum ETFs can post consecutive inflow days after a month of selling, and whether the ETH/BTC ratio holds its November 3 breakout. If both turn positive, the contrarian case strengthens. If both stay negative, the bear scenario's $2,000 level is the next stop.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why did Ethereum fall more than Bitcoin today?

Ethereum fell about 8% while Bitcoin fell about 5.5% because ETH carries more leveraged long positions, its ETFs have suffered over $1.6 billion in outflows in October, and it is more exposed to regulatory fears after the Democratic midterm sweep. When leverage unwinds, the most leveraged asset falls furthest.

Is Ethereum below its 200-day moving average?

Yes. Ethereum trades around $2,240, below its 200-day exponential moving average of $2,315, with the 100-day at $2,348 and the 50-day at $2,397 above it. Bitcoin is also just below its own 200-day average at $76,497. Both coins need to reclaim those lines to turn the short-term trend back up.

What is the ETH/BTC ratio and why does it matter?

The ETH/BTC ratio measures Ethereum's value in Bitcoin — it traded near 0.02955 after breaking above a descending trendline on November 3. A rising ratio means ETH is outperforming BTC. If the ratio holds its breakout, the case for ETH outperformance survives; if it rolls over, Bitcoin stays the stronger relative trade.

Are Ethereum ETFs still seeing outflows?

Yes. US spot Ethereum ETFs lost $139.7 million on November 2, $571.1 million across October 26 to November 2, and more than $1.6 billion in October as a whole. BlackRock's ETHA accounted for most of the selling. No inflow reversal has been confirmed yet.

Could Ethereum fall to $2,000?

Yes — it is the bear-case scenario in this article, with roughly 30% probability. It would likely need a hot jobs report today or hot inflation on November 10 to push December rate-hike bets higher. The $2,200 demand zone and the $2,160 level are the supports to watch first.

Is now a good time to buy Ethereum?

That depends on your time horizon and risk tolerance, and this article is not financial advice. Short-term, ETH is below all its major moving averages and ETF flows are still negative. Long-term, network activity is at an all-time high and staking pays around 3%. The checklist above — the 200-day average, the jobs report, ETF flows, the ETH/BTC ratio and position size — is the framework to decide with.

Conclusion

Ethereum's 8% crash is not a story about Ethereum failing. It is a story about leverage, ETF flows and a Nasdaq sell-off hitting the most leveraged major asset hardest. ETH lost its 200-day average at $2,315, its ETFs have bled more than $1.6 billion in a month, and it is down 16% in 30 days — but its network activity just hit an all-time high, whales are buying while funds sell, and the ETH/BTC ratio broke a months-long trendline three days ago.

The next 48 hours decide which story wins. A soft jobs report today and ETH reclaiming $2,315 opens the path to $2,400. A hot report and a loss of $2,200 opens the path to $2,000. Either way, the levels are clear, the catalysts are dated, and the five numbers in this article are the ones to watch. Ethereum has fallen harder than Bitcoin — the question is whether it also bounces harder, and the answer starts with today's payrolls number.