ETH/BTC at 0.0295: Ethereum Is 80% Below Its 2017 Peak Against Bitcoin — 5 Numbers That Decide If ETH Ever Catches Up

One ether now buys just 0.0295 bitcoin. That single number is the worst verdict on Ethereum in years: ETH has lost to Bitcoin in every calendar year since 2022, it is 80% below the level it reached against BTC in 2017, and Ether ETFs have now bled money for six straight weeks. The question for every ETH holder is no longer "when does ETH go up" — it is whether ETH can ever catch BTC again, and these five numbers decide the answer.

On November 8, 2026, ether traded at $2,234.61 while bitcoin held $75,800. Divide the first by the second and you get 0.0295 — the ETH/BTC ratio. It is the cleanest scoreboard in crypto, because it strips out the dollar entirely: when the ratio falls, Ethereum is losing to Bitcoin no matter what either price does in dollars. And it has been falling for most of the last five years.

This is not a prediction that ETH is finished. Ethereum still settles more stablecoin volume than Visa moves in a year, and whales just pulled 18,550 ETH off exchanges in five days. But the data is blunt: buying ETH instead of BTC has cost investors money in 2026, in 2025, and in every year since 2022. Here is what the numbers say, why ETH keeps losing, and the five levels that would prove the trend is turning.

What the ETH/BTC Ratio Actually Measures

The ETH/BTC ratio is the price of one ether expressed in bitcoin. At 0.0295, one ETH buys 0.0295 BTC — roughly one-thirty-fourth of a bitcoin. A rising ratio means ether is gaining on bitcoin, usually a sign of risk appetite and a healthy environment for altcoins. A falling ratio means bitcoin is winning, usually a sign of caution and capital concentrating in the safest crypto asset.

Traders watch it because dollar prices lie by omission. If ETH rises 10% while BTC rises 20%, ETH holders feel richer in dollars while falling behind the market's benchmark asset. The ratio removes that illusion. It is a relative-strength gauge and a regime signal, not a price target — and it can stay depressed for years.

History gives today's level its meaning. The ratio peaked at 0.15017 on June 12, 2017, when one ether was worth about 15% of a bitcoin, driven by the initial-coin-offering boom that ran on Ethereum. It fell to 0.01639 in September 2019, recovered to 0.08794 in December 2021 as decentralized finance and NFTs drove enormous activity, and has been grinding lower ever since. It hit 0.01805 on April 21, 2025 — its lowest close in more than five years — bounced to 0.04213 in August 2025, and closed at 0.0297 on October 15, 2026. Coinbase daily-close data compiled by GrowYourEthereum shows the ratio has been lower than today's level on about 29% of days since May 2016 — deep in the bottom third of a decade of history, but not the all-time low.

The 9-Year Scoreboard: Bitcoin Has Won 6 of 9 Years

The calendar-year record is the most honest evidence for ETH holders. Bitcoin beat Ethereum in six of the nine full calendar years from 2017 to 2025, and ETH's wins came in short, explosive bursts — 2017, 2020 and 2021 — while its losses have been long, grinding affairs.

Year	Ether (ETH)	Bitcoin (BTC)	ETH/BTC at year-end	Winner
2017	+9,034%	+1,318%	~0.08	ETH
2018	−82.4%	−73.6%	~0.03	BTC
2020	+469%	+302%	~0.03	ETH
2021	+398%	+59%	~0.08	ETH
2022	−67.5%	−64.2%	~0.07	BTC
2023	+90.8%	+155.8%	~0.05	BTC
2024	+46.0%	+120.8%	~0.04	BTC
2025	−10.9%	−6.3%	0.0339	BTC
2026 (to Oct 15)	−17.8%	−6.2%	0.0297	BTC

Read the table the right way: ETH's victories were spectacular but brief, and every one of them came when the whole market was euphoric. In the grinding years — the years when discipline matters — BTC won every time. Ether has now trailed bitcoin in 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 and 2026 so far. Five straight years of underperformance is a regime, not a blip. If you are new to Ethereum itself, our beginner's guide to what Ethereum is and how it works is the place to start — the asset's value case and its price case are two different things, and confusing them is the most common mistake in this debate.

The 2026 numbers make the gap concrete. Year to date, bitcoin is down 13.49% while ether is down 24.73%, according to PortfoliosLab's BTC-USD vs ETH-USD comparison. Over the past year the gap is wider: BTC −26.0% against ETH −34.3%, with bitcoin's annualized volatility at 44% versus ether's 61%, and a maximum drawdown of −44.7% against ether's −56.2%, per Gale Finance's one-year BTC vs ETH comparison. Over the year to October 14, $1,000 in bitcoin became about $721; $1,000 in ether became about $586. ETH is also further from its peak: 53.78% below its all-time high of $4,956, against bitcoin's 39.31% below its $126,277 high.

The 30-day picture is the same story in miniature. Ether fell 17% over the past 30 days while bitcoin fell 9.9%, and the ratio slipped from 0.0321 on October 1 to 0.0288 on October 29 — its lowest since July 19. The levels that matter now are 0.0287, the July 19 low sitting directly below the price, and 0.0258, the 2026 low from June 6.

5 Numbers That Decide Whether ETH Ever Catches Up

Forget the narratives for a moment. Five measurable numbers will decide whether the ETH/BTC ratio recovers or keeps grinding toward its 2026 low.

1. 0.0258 — the 2026 low. The ratio bottomed at 0.02578 on June 6, 2026. If it breaks below that level, ETH is in uncharted territory for the year and the next stop is the April 2025 low of 0.01805. Holding above 0.0258 is the bare minimum for any recovery story. Right now the ratio sits just 14% above it.

2. $365 million — one week of Ether ETF outflows. US spot Ethereum ETFs lost about $365 million last week, extending their losing streak to six straight weeks, according to SoSoValue data. Year-to-date net outflows are roughly $310 million. That is the institutional verdict in dollar terms. For context, bitcoin ETFs just suffered their own worst week since June — $1.28 billion of outflows from November 2 to 6 — yet BTC still outperformed ETH. When both assets face selling and ETH falls further, the problem is ETH-specific, not market-wide. Our guide to how spot Bitcoin ETFs work — and whether to buy one explains why these flows move prices so much.

3. 2.63% — the ETH staking yield. Staking ether pays about 2.63% a year. That is below the dollar interest rate and far below Solana's roughly 6% staking yield. The yield is supposed to be ETH's compensation for its underperformance — the "you get paid to wait" argument. At 2.63%, the payment is too small to matter, and it is one reason capital rotates elsewhere. Our complete ETH staking guide breaks down the real net rewards after fees, and the comparison with Solana is stark: SOL pays about 6% while ETH pays 2.63%.

4. $2,200 — the line ETH must hold in dollars. Technical analysis puts the key support zone at $2,200 to $2,220, with the strongest support just below the market at $2,212. Resistance sits at $2,317, and the last lower high is $2,451. ETH trades below its 50-day average of $2,493 but above its 200-day average of $2,157. The October 30 low of $2,174 is the floor of the current downtrend, which has run since September 15 with lower highs at $2,808, $2,526 and $2,451. A clean break below $2,174 puts $2,000 back in view; a reclaim of $2,451 breaks the downtrend. The next macro test is the US CPI print on November 10 — our Bitcoin CPI guide explains why that release matters for both assets.

5. $25.8 trillion — the number that says ETH is not dead. Ethereum settled $25.8 trillion in stablecoins in the first ten months of 2026 — more than Visa moves in a year — while ETH itself trades 55% below its peak. That is the bull case in one number: the network is doing record real-world business while its token is priced like a failure. If any of that activity ever translates into fee revenue and token value again, the ratio has enormous room to recover. We covered the milestone in detail in Ethereum's $25.8 trillion stablecoin year.

Why ETH Keeps Losing in 2026

The ratio does not fall by accident. Four forces have pushed it down all year, and none has reversed yet.

The ETF flow gap. Bitcoin ETFs recovered roughly two-thirds of their prior outflows during the year while spot ETH ETFs recovered only about one-third, according to JPMorgan data cited in May. Cumulative US spot ETH ETF net inflows reached $12.05 billion in total — real money — but the flow direction in the second half of 2026 has been firmly negative, with six consecutive weeks of outflows. Institutions buy bitcoin first and ask about ether later, and in a fearful market — the Crypto Fear & Greed Index sits at 28, in Fear — "later" keeps getting postponed.

The Layer-2 fee drain. Ethereum's own success at scaling pushed activity and fees onto Layer-2 networks, draining the mainnet fee-burn that was supposed to make ETH a value-accrual asset. Gas fees crashed 58% to 3.5 cents — great news for users, bad news for holders waiting for fee burn to tighten supply. Two proposals that would reprice state-access and state-creation gas costs, EIP-8037 and EIP-8038, are in Last Call with a November 1 deadline and remain under peer review, so no relief is imminent.

The upgrade delays. Ethereum developers delayed the next test of the Glamsterdam upgrade on the Hoodi test network, removing the nearest catalyst from the calendar. Upgrades have historically been ETH's best ratio catalysts — the 2021 run to 0.08794 coincided with the Merge narrative building. With Glamsterdam delayed and no hard date, the catalyst shelf is empty into year-end.

The competition for the "second asset" slot. Solana's staking yield, its ETF filings, and its speed narrative have absorbed the capital that used to flow to ETH as the default altcoin bet. Bitcoin dominance sits near 60% of the total crypto market, and the remaining share is being fought over by chains that, on several metrics, are growing faster than Ethereum. ETH is no longer the automatic second choice — it has to earn the allocation, and in 2026 it has not.

None of this means Ethereum is broken as a network. It means the investment case for ETH over BTC has to be rebuilt on evidence, not on the assumption that the number-two asset must eventually catch up. That assumption has now been wrong for five straight years.

What Would Have to Change: 3 Scenarios for the Ratio

Predictions are cheap; levels are useful. Here are three scenarios for the ETH/BTC ratio into year-end, each defined by what would have to happen, not by hope.

Scenario	Ratio target	What has to happen	Probability read
Bear: capitulation	0.0258, then 0.018	Ratio breaks the June low; ETH ETF outflows extend past 8 weeks; ETH loses $2,174 support and CPI comes in hot on Nov 10	The trend's direction — the default unless something changes
Base: grinding sideways	0.028–0.032	ETF outflows slow but don't reverse; ETH holds $2,200; Glamsterdam gets a firm test date; ratio chops in its 12-month band	Most likely near-term outcome
Bull: the catch-up trade	0.040	ETH ETF flows turn positive for 3+ weeks; Standard Chartered's 0.04 year-end target requires ~36% ETH outperformance from here; stablecoin settlement growth converts into fee revenue	Needs a catalyst that does not exist yet

The bull case deserves a hard look because 0.04 is not a fantasy number — Standard Chartered targeted it for year-end back in June. But reaching it from 0.0295 requires ether to outperform bitcoin by roughly 36% in under two months, while ETH has underperformed BTC by 11.6 percentage points over the whole of 2026 so far. Possible? Yes — ETH's history is full of short, explosive bursts. Likely without a catalyst? No. The honest base case is sideways: ETH holds its dollar support, the ratio chops between 0.028 and 0.032, and the real decision gets postponed to 2027.

What Most People Get Wrong About ETH vs BTC

"ETH is cheap because it is 55% below its all-time high." A discount from the peak is not a valuation. ETH was also "cheap" at 40% below its peak, then 50% below it. What matters is the ratio, and the ratio says ETH is cheap relative to its own history but still expensive relative to its recent trend. Cheap can get cheaper — the 2026 low of 0.0258 is another 13% below today's ratio.

"Ethereum does more than Bitcoin, so it must eventually be worth more." Utility and token price are loosely connected at best. Ethereum settles $25.8 trillion in stablecoins while its token falls, because most of that activity happens on Layer-2 networks and in stablecoins, not in ETH itself. Doing more business does not automatically mean the token captures the value.

"Bitcoin dominance at 60% means altcoin season is coming." High dominance can persist for years, and the altcoin season index sits at just 37. Dominance near 60% is a fact about the present, not a timing signal for the future.

Hold or Rotate? A 3-Point Checklist Before You Decide

If you hold ETH and are wondering whether to keep it, rotate to BTC, or add more, run through this checklist honestly. It is a decision framework, not financial advice.

1. Check your ratio, not your dollars. Are you measuring your ETH position against BTC or against the dollar? If ETH is up in dollars but down against BTC, you lost ground to the market's benchmark. Decide which benchmark you actually care about.

2. Ask what your catalyst is. Name one specific event before year-end that would push the ratio to 0.04. If you cannot name one, you are holding on hope, and hope is not a position. A Glamsterdam test date, an ETF flow reversal, or a fee-revenue change would all qualify — but none has happened yet.

3. Respect the $2,174 line. If ETH loses its October 30 low, the technical picture breaks and $2,000 comes into view fast. Decide in advance what you will do if that level breaks, while you are calm — not after it breaks. And separate the network from the token: Ethereum the network is thriving while Ethereum the token struggles. You can believe in the first while being cautious about the second. If you do want to own ETH, our guide to buying your first ETH covers the safest ways to do it.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the ETH/BTC ratio right now?

0.0295 as of November 8, 2026, with ether at $2,234.61 and bitcoin at $75,800. That means one ETH buys 0.0295 BTC. The ratio is down from 0.0321 on October 1 and sits in the lower third of its 12-month range of 0.0258 to 0.0361.

Is 0.0295 the lowest the ETH/BTC ratio has ever been?

No. The ratio fell to 0.01639 in September 2019 and 0.01805 in April 2025, and its 2026 low is 0.02578 from June 6. It has been lower than today's level on about 29% of days since May 2016. Today's level is weak, but it is not the all-time low — which cuts both ways: there is room to fall further, and the ratio has recovered from worse.

Why is Ethereum underperforming Bitcoin in 2026?

Four forces: six straight weeks of Ether ETF outflows ($365 million last week alone), Layer-2 networks draining mainnet fee revenue, the delayed Glamsterdam upgrade removing the nearest catalyst, and competition from Solana and others for the "second asset" allocation. Bitcoin, meanwhile, benefits from its safe-haven status inside crypto while the Fear & Greed Index sits at 28.

Will Ethereum ever catch up to Bitcoin?

It has before — in short bursts in 2017, 2020 and 2021, when the ratio spiked to 0.15 and 0.088. But ETH has trailed BTC in every year since 2022, and catching up to Standard Chartered's 0.04 target would require about 36% outperformance. A recovery is possible, but it needs a catalyst — an ETF flow reversal, a Glamsterdam rollout, or fee revenue returning to the mainnet — and none has arrived yet.

Is it better to hold ETH or BTC right now?

The data favors BTC on every trailing measure: 2026 year-to-date (−13.49% vs −24.73%), one year (−26.0% vs −34.3%), volatility (44% vs 61%) and maximum drawdown (−44.7% vs −56.2%). ETH's case rests on its network dominance — $25.8 trillion in stablecoin settlement — and on the possibility of a sharp catch-up rally, which has happened three times before. There is no risk-free answer; the checklist above is the honest way to decide. For a full framework, read Is Ethereum a Good Investment in 2026? and Is Bitcoin a Good Investment in 2026?.

Conclusion

The ETH/BTC ratio at 0.0295 is the single most honest number in crypto right now. It says Ethereum's network is doing record business while its token has lost to Bitcoin for five straight years — and that the gap widened again in 2026, with ETH down 24.73% year to date against BTC's 13.49% fall. It says the staking yield is too small to compensate, the ETF flows are going the wrong way, and the nearest upgrade catalyst is delayed.

Watch the five numbers: 0.0258, $365 million, 2.63%, $2,200 and $25.8 trillion. If the first four stabilize and the fifth starts converting into fee revenue, the ratio turns. Until then, the scoreboard is what it is — and in 2026, the scoreboard says Bitcoin.

For information only, not financial advice. All figures are snapshots as of November 8, 2026.