Bitcoin CPI November 10: 3 Numbers That Decide Whether BTC Holds $75,000 or Falls to $68,000

Bitcoin is heading into Tuesday, November 10, with $75,944 on the line — and one inflation number will decide whether it holds $75,000 or slides toward $68,000. The October CPI report drops at 8:30 a.m. ET, and traders are already pricing a 75% chance of a Federal Reserve rate hike on December 9. Here is the part most coverage misses: a soft core print has far more room to move markets than a hot one, because the hike is already three-quarters priced in.

That asymmetry is the whole trade. Bitcoin has already fallen 40% from its $126,080 all-time high. Spot Bitcoin ETFs just bled $1.28 billion in a single week — their second straight negative week — and turned negative for 2026. The October jobs report came in hot at 165,000 new jobs against 65,000 expected, pushing December hike odds from roughly 67% to nearly 80%. Everything now hinges on three numbers inside Tuesday's report. This article breaks down what they are, the exact levels that decide Bitcoin's next move, and the five things to do before 8:30 a.m. ET.

Why Tuesday's CPI Matters More Than Any Other Report This Month

The Consumer Price Index is the single most important data point between now and the Fed's December 9 meeting. The Fed held its target range at 3.75% to 4.00% on October 28 in a 10–2 vote, with two officials dissenting in favor of another quarter-point hike. The Fed had already raised rates in mid-September — its first increase since 2023 — and September meeting minutes showed most officials expected another hike before year-end. Sixteen of eighteen Fed participants projected a higher year-end rate.

Then came the jobs report. October payrolls rose 165,000, more than double the 65,000 economists expected, according to CoinDesk data cited by CoinJuice. Within hours, traders were pricing a December hike at close to 80%, up from about 70% before the release. The 10-year Treasury yield jumped 6.4 basis points to 4.894%. The Nasdaq lost 5.5% on November 5, wiping $2.5 trillion off the Nasdaq 100, according to Reuters. Bitcoin, which had briefly touched $81,196 earlier in the week, slid back toward $75,000.

As Nick Rees, head of macro research at Monex, put it: without a significant downside surprise in the October CPI report or the November jobs report due December 4, a December rate hike could become almost fully priced in before the meeting. That makes Tuesday's print the last clean chance for inflation data to change the story. For a full primer on how Bitcoin reacts to macro shocks, see our beginner's guide to Bitcoin.

The 3 Numbers Inside the CPI Report That Decide Bitcoin's Next Move

Forget the headlines. Three figures inside Tuesday's release do the real work — and each one has a different threshold.

1. Core CPI month-over-month: the 0.25% rounding line

Core CPI — which strips out food and energy — is the number the Fed watches most. Consensus points to a 0.2% monthly rise, but the nowcasts cluster just below the line where a print rounds up to 0.3%. The Cleveland Fed nowcast, last updated October 30, shows core at 0.21%. Continuum Economics projects 0.22%. TD Securities forecasts 0.21%.

Here is why that decimal matters: the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes monthly changes to one decimal place, so an unrounded reading of 0.25% or higher appears as 0.3%. Every major nowcast sits at 0.21–0.22% — a hair below the line. A print of 0.3% would confirm the hawkish case and likely push December hike odds toward 90% or higher. A print of 0.2% would be a small relief. A print of 0.1% would be a genuine surprise — and the one outcome that could send Bitcoin sharply higher, because it would force traders to unwind a hike that is already 75% priced in.

2. Headline CPI month-over-month: the 0.3% test

Headline CPI is expected to rise 0.3% month over month. The Cleveland Fed nowcast puts it at 0.24%, Continuum Economics at 0.24%, and Kalshi's market-implied figure at 0.28%. Prediction markets price a reading above 0.1% at 92% and above 0.2% at 65%, but above 0.3% at only 14–15%. In other words, the market expects a moderate print and would be caught off guard by anything hotter. Energy prices are the wildcard: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh flagged higher energy prices in October, and a surprise in gasoline or shelter costs could push the headline number over the line.

3. December hike odds: the 75% already in the price

This is the number that frames everything else. According to LSEG data cited by Dow Jones Newswires on November 6, money markets price a 75% probability of a 25-basis-point hike at the Fed's December 9 meeting. CME FedWatch, as cited by Charles Schwab, showed 77%. Kalshi and Polymarket priced it near 73%. As analysts at BYDFi noted, with a hike about three-quarters priced, a hot core print can add at most 23 to 27 percentage points of probability — while a soft one has up to 73 to 77 points to remove. That asymmetry is why a soft CPI is the bigger market mover: the downside for rate expectations is much larger than the upside.

CPI Forecasts at a Glance: What Every Forecaster Expects

One quirk to know before Tuesday: the BLS will not publish official year-over-year changes for most indexes in this report. It collected no prices in October 2025 during the federal shutdown, so there is no October 2025 base to compare against. Any headline claiming an exact annual inflation figure for October is describing a model estimate, not an official number. Month-over-month figures are the only clean comparison this time — which is another reason the 0.2% versus 0.3% core rounding line matters so much.

Bitcoin at $75,944: The Levels That Decide $80,000 or $68,000

Bitcoin enters CPI week in a fragile technical position. It closed November 6 near $75,792, sitting almost exactly on its 50-week moving average. The short-term holder cost basis sits at $75,839 — almost exactly the current price — which means the average recent buyer is barely breaking even. The Ichimoku Kijun on the daily chart marks immediate support at $75,633. The 200-day moving average sits at $73,191. The daily Bollinger Bands place the lower band at $75,085, the middle at $79,759 and the upper at $84,433. The relative strength index reads 37.82, below its average of 40.42 — oversold, but not washed out.

Analysts are split on what comes next. CryptoInsightUK has outlined a move lower to $73,400–$74,500 before any recovery. A separate scenario from Crypto Patel points to a deeper decline toward $68,000 first. TradersUnion's model forecasts consolidation between $74,623 and $77,444, with strong selling pressure and a low probability of an upward breakout. Bitfinex identified a key support band between $77,000 and $80,000 above the price — resistance Bitcoin must reclaim before any real recovery begins.

The picture is the same across the market. Ethereum trades near $2,238, down 16.8% over the past month and 55% below its peak. Solana sits near $89, down almost 18% in 30 days after crashing below $90. XRP is at $1.16, down 15.97% over the month. The Fear & Greed Index reads 27 — firmly in Fear territory. For context on whether this dip is a buying opportunity or a trap, read our 5-test guide to buying crypto right now.

Bitcoin's 3 CPI Scenarios: Bull, Base and Bear

The bull case is the least likely on the numbers — prediction markets give only a small chance to a sub-0.2% core print — but it carries the biggest payoff precisely because so little of it is priced in. The base case is the most probable and the most boring: Bitcoin grinds sideways while ETF outflows and the December hike debate drag on. The bear case is the one traders fear most, because losing the $75,000 level would put Bitcoin below its short-term holder cost basis and its 50-week average at the same time — a combination that has historically accelerated selling.

The $1.28 Billion ETF Bleed: Why Institutions Are Selling Into CPI Week

The flow data tells its own story. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $1.28 billion last week — their second straight negative week — and are now down $914.1 million for 2026, according to data from SoSoValue reported by The Block. The funds lost money on every day except Wednesday: $398.6 million on Monday, $115.6 million on Tuesday, $430.2 million on Thursday and $411.9 million on Friday. Wednesday brought a smaller $74.6 million inflow. BlackRock's IBIT accounted for about 88% of Friday's gross outflows.

Ether ETFs lost $365.3 million — their sixth straight negative week — taking about $2.02 billion from the funds since late September. Solana ETFs lost $26.3 million, their fifth straight negative week, with nearly all of it on Friday. Hyperliquid ETFs lost $15.6 million, also their fifth straight negative week.

But the selling is not universal. Long-term holders keep adding. Strive acquired 15,124 BTC between October 1 and October 30, according to its third-quarter results filed with the SEC. That split — ETF holders selling while corporate treasuries accumulate — is the defining tension of this market. ETF flows are driven by traders reacting to rates; treasury buyers are driven by a multi-year thesis. CPI week will test which group is right. Our November price prediction breaks down the $2.37 billion short bet sitting on the other side of this trade.

What Most People Get Wrong About CPI and Crypto

Myth 1: "Hot CPI always crashes Bitcoin." Not true. What crashes Bitcoin is a hot CPI that changes Fed expectations. If a 0.3% core print arrives when the market already expects 0.3%, hike odds barely move — and Bitcoin barely moves. The damage comes from surprise, not from the number itself. That is why the nowcasts matter more than the consensus: they tell you what is actually priced in.

Myth 2: "The annual inflation rate is the number to watch." Not this month. Because the BLS collected no prices in October 2025, there is no official year-over-year figure for most indexes. Anyone quoting a precise annual rate for October is citing a model estimate. The month-over-month core number is the only clean signal on Tuesday.

Myth 3: "A Fed hike is already fully priced, so CPI doesn't matter." A 75% probability is not 100%. There are still 25 points of doubt, and a soft print could remove most of them in minutes. Conversely, a hot print could take hike odds toward 90% and force a fresh wave of de-risking. With Bitcoin sitting exactly on its 50-week average, even a small shift in rate expectations can decide whether support holds.

Myth 4: "Bitcoin is a hedge against inflation, so high CPI is good for BTC." That was the 2021 story. In 2026, Bitcoin trades like a risk asset: hot inflation means higher rates for longer, and higher rates punish every risk asset at once. The Nasdaq lost 5.5% on the same day Bitcoin slid toward $75,000. Until the Fed pivots, inflation prints hurt crypto far more often than they help it.

Myth 5: "ETF outflows mean institutions have given up on Bitcoin." The flows say otherwise. The same week ETFs lost $1.28 billion, long-term corporate buyers added thousands of coins. ETF flows measure short-term positioning; treasury accumulation measures conviction. Both are real — they just operate on different clocks.

Your Checklist: 5 Things to Do Before 8:30 a.m. ET on Tuesday

• Set a price alert at $75,633 and $73,191. The first is the Ichimoku Kijun support; the second is the 200-day moving average. Losing both in one session would confirm the bear scenario — don't wait for the news to tell you.
• Know the two numbers before the release. Core CPI month-over-month (watch the 0.25% rounding line) and the December hike odds on CME FedWatch. If core prints 0.2% and hike odds barely move, the market got what it expected — don't overreact to the headline.
• Check your exchange exposure. If your coins sit on an exchange, make sure you know its withdrawal status and your account limits before volatility hits. Our 5-check exchange safety guide covers what to verify.
• Decide your plan in advance — in writing. If Bitcoin breaks below $73,000, will you buy, hold, or sell? Decide now, when you are calm. CPI prints move Bitcoin hundreds of dollars in minutes; decisions made mid-spike are almost always the wrong ones. If you are still weighing whether Bitcoin fits your portfolio at all, our honest 2026 investment guide lays out the case for and against.
• Secure what you hold. Volatility weeks are prime time for phishing and fake "CPI trade" scams. Move long-term holdings to a wallet you control — see our best crypto wallets for beginners — and never click a link promising guaranteed gains from the CPI print.

The Calendar After CPI: What Comes Next

CPI is the first of three catalysts that will decide Bitcoin's November. The October Producer Price Index lands on Friday, November 13. The November jobs report arrives December 4 — the last major data point before the Fed meeting. And the FOMC decision itself comes on December 9, when the market will learn whether the 75% hike probability becomes reality.

Between now and then, watch three things: whether ETF outflows slow after CPI (a sign the selling is exhausted), whether Bitcoin reclaims $77,000–$80,000 (the resistance band Bitfinex flagged), and whether the November jobs report confirms or contradicts the hot October print. If CPI comes in soft and jobs cool in December, the hike could vanish from pricing entirely — and Bitcoin's 40% drawdown from its all-time high would start to look like the buying opportunity of the year. If CPI comes in hot and jobs stay strong, $68,000 stops being a bearish fantasy and becomes the next support test. Either way, Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. ET is when the market finds out which path it is on.

FAQs

When is the October CPI report released?

Tuesday, November 10, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time (1:30 p.m. GMT). The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes it. Core CPI is expected to rise 0.2% month over month and headline CPI 0.3%, according to consensus forecasts cited by Seeking Alpha and TradingView.

Why does CPI move Bitcoin's price?

CPI shapes Federal Reserve rate decisions, and rate expectations drive risk assets. Hot inflation raises the odds of a December rate hike — currently priced near 75% — which strengthens the dollar, lifts bond yields and pressures Bitcoin. Soft inflation does the opposite. Bitcoin fell toward $75,000 after the hot October jobs report pushed hike odds to nearly 80%.

What is the December Fed hike probability right now?

About 75%, according to LSEG data cited by Dow Jones Newswires on November 6. CME FedWatch showed 77%, while Kalshi and Polymarket priced it near 73%. The Fed's next meeting is December 9, and its target range is currently 3.75% to 4.00%.

What happens to Bitcoin if core CPI prints 0.3%?

A 0.3% core print would likely push December hike odds toward 90% or higher and put Bitcoin's $75,633 support under immediate pressure. Analysts see $73,400–$74,500 as the first downside zone, with the 200-day moving average at $73,191 behind it. A deeper scenario from Crypto Patel targets $68,000. These are analyst forecasts, not certainties.

What happens to Bitcoin if core CPI prints 0.1%?

A soft 0.1% core print would be a genuine surprise and could cut December hike odds sharply, since a hike is already about 75% priced in. Bitcoin would likely break above the $77,444 range top and test $79,759 (the Bollinger middle band), then the $80,000–$81,196 zone. Prediction markets give this outcome a low probability — which is exactly why it would move markets the most.

Why is there no official year-over-year inflation rate for October?

The BLS collected no prices in October 2025 during the federal shutdown, so there is no October 2025 base for a 12-month comparison. It will not publish year-over-year changes for most October 2026 indexes. Month-over-month figures are the clean comparison this month, and any annual rate you see quoted is a model estimate.

Conclusion

Tuesday's CPI report is not just another data release — it is the fork in the road for Bitcoin's November. The numbers to watch are simple: core CPI month-over-month against the 0.25% rounding line, headline CPI against 0.3%, and December hike odds against the 75% already priced in. A soft print has more room to move markets than a hot one, because the hike is already three-quarters in the price. A hot print confirms the hawkish case and puts $75,000 — and then $73,191 and $68,000 — on the table.

Bitcoin at $75,944, 40% below its all-time high, with $1.28 billion in weekly ETF outflows and Fear at 27, is a market waiting for a reason to move. On Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. ET, it gets one. Whatever the print, have your plan written down before the release — and remember that one inflation number never decides a cycle, only the next few weeks of it. The December 9 Fed meeting is where this story ends. Tuesday is where it turns.