Bitcoin November 11: Two Fibonacci Clocks Point at Today — $74,600 Holds or $68,000 Comes Next

Bitcoin is trading at roughly $74,700 on Wednesday, November 11 — and today is not just another red day in a five-week losing streak. Two separate Fibonacci time counts, calculated from completely different starting points in Bitcoin's history, both land on today. One of them points at $74,600. Bitcoin is sitting almost exactly on it. What happens in the next 48 hours decides whether this is the bottom of the correction or the start of a slide toward $68,000.

Why November 11 Is the Date Traders Are Watching

The case for today starts with a piece of technical analysis circulating among Bitcoin traders this week. Two independent Fibonacci time counts converge on November 11. The first measures 0.618 of the 82-day rally from Bitcoin's July low near $57,700 to its October high near $87,400. The second measures 0.382 of the full 2022-to-2025 bull market, counted from the October 2025 peak. On that date, the 0.382 Fibonacci fan line sits near $74,600.

Bitcoin's price action this week has respected that line almost to the dollar. After five consecutive weekly closes in the red, BTC retested major support near $73,000, bounced to a local peak of about $75,431 on Monday, and then slipped back to trade near $74,700. The 24-hour low was around $73,748. The market has spent the week circling the exact level the Fibonacci counts flagged — and today is the day the counts say matters most.

Time-based Fibonacci analysis is not a crystal ball, and no honest analyst would present it as one. What makes it worth watching is that traders act on it. When thousands of traders, algorithms, and options desks all watch the same level on the same day, the level becomes real through their orders. The next key date in the same framework is December 12. Between now and then, the market has to choose a direction. For the full background on the asset itself, see What Is Bitcoin? The Complete Beginner's Guide.

The Numbers Behind the Fall: CPI, Outflows, and Fear

Bitcoin did not arrive at $74,700 by accident. Three forces pushed it here, and all three are still in play.

The inflation surprise came first: Tuesday's October Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% month over month, above the 0.3% economists expected. The hotter print hit risk assets immediately: Bitcoin dipped toward 11-week lows near $73,500 at the Wall Street open, and the market repriced the odds of a December rate hike sharply higher. A December hike is now 85% priced in by some measures, and prediction markets put it even higher — more on that below.

ETF flows turned against Bitcoin. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw roughly $530 million in outflows on Thursday of last week, and the selling has not let up. BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), the largest of the funds, still holds about $60.29 billion in net assets, but the direction of travel matters more than the stock: when the ETFs that powered Bitcoin's 2024 and 2025 rallies start bleeding, the marginal buyer disappears. Our earlier analysis, CPI November 10: Bitcoin at $75,700 — 3 Numbers That Decide $68,000 or $80,000, laid out why the CPI print was the trigger for this leg down.

Fear took over the tape. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index has fallen from the greed zone of 81 in October to 28 today — deep in fear territory. And the leverage washout is real: according to Coinglass data, close to $360 million in positions were liquidated in 24 hours, with long positions accounting for 78.7% of the damage. More than 80,000 traders were liquidated in a single day. If you want to understand how that index is built and how traders use it, see What Is the Crypto Fear and Greed Index? How to Read It in 2026.

Put together, the picture is a market that is oversold, over-leveraged on the long side, and staring at a macro calendar that gets worse before it gets better. That combination is exactly what produces either a sharp relief rally or a capitulation leg — and the November 11 level is where the two outcomes split.

The December 9 Fed Decision: A Hike Is Now the Base Case

The single biggest macro input for Bitcoin over the next four weeks is the Federal Reserve's December 8–9 meeting — the last scheduled FOMC meeting of 2026. On October 28, the committee held the federal funds target range at 3.75%–4.00% by a 10–2 vote, with Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack dissenting in favor of a hike. Sixteen of the eighteen Fed participants projected a higher year-end rate in September. The market has now taken the hint. Here is where the odds stand as of November 10–11, from three independent sources:

Source	25bp hike on Dec 9	Any hike	Hold
Kalshi	86%	96%	5%
Polymarket	76.5%	~77%	22.5%
Fed funds futures (CME method)	~81%	~81%	~19%

The spread between the sources is instructive. Kalshi traders give a hike of any size a 96% chance, with a 25-basis-point move at 86% and a larger 50-basis-point move at 10%. Polymarket is more cautious at 76.5% for the quarter-point hike. Fed funds futures price roughly 29 basis points of tightening by December 9 — effectively a full hike. Whatever the exact number, the message is the same: the market now expects the Fed to raise rates in December, reversing the cutting cycle that supported risk assets for most of the year. You can follow the live odds on Kalshi's Fed rate odds page and Polymarket's Fed rate tracker.

Why does this matter for Bitcoin? Because the last time the Fed was in a hiking regime, Bitcoin fell after all seven post-pause hikes since 2016, with a median drop of 2.4% and a worst case of 42%. Rate hikes raise the return on holding cash, strengthen the dollar, and drain the liquidity that flows into speculative assets. A December hike would not kill Bitcoin — the asset has survived far worse — but it would remove the one tailwind traders were counting on for a year-end rally, and it would put the December 9 announcement squarely in the middle of Bitcoin's seasonal low window.

There is also a data trap. November's CPI report arrives on December 10 — one day after the Fed's decision. The committee will vote without seeing the freshest inflation data, which raises the stakes and the odds of a volatile reaction: if the Fed hikes and the next day's CPI comes in cool, the market will call it a policy error within 24 hours.

3 Scenarios: What Happens Next for Bitcoin

With the November 11 level, the November 13 options expiry, and the December 9 Fed decision all in view, Bitcoin's path splits into three scenarios. Each one has a trigger, a price target, and a probability based on current market pricing. These are scenarios, not predictions.

Scenario	Trigger	Price path	Probability
Bull: the Fibonacci bottom holds	BTC holds $74,600 through the Nov 13 expiry and reclaims $76,000	$79,400, then $81,300–$82,000 resistance	~35%
Base: range-bound grind	BTC bounces off $73,000–$74,600 but fails at $76,000–$79,400	$72,350–$79,400 into December 9	~40%
Bear: $74,600 breaks	Daily close below $74,600, then below $73,000 support	$68,000, with the next Fibonacci fan line near $67,700	~25%

In the bull scenario, the November 11 date works as advertised. Bitcoin has already shown it can bounce: Monday's relief rally lifted BTC more than 2% from its 24-hour low, and trading volume soared over 262% to $31.2 billion in 24 hours, according to CoinMarketCap. If the $74,600 level holds through Friday's options expiry, the options market itself starts working in bulls' favor — the largest Deribit position is the November 13 $81,000 call, carrying 8,306.8 BTC in open interest. A push toward $79,400 would squeeze shorts and set up a run at the $81,300–$82,000 resistance band. One pseudonymous trader, Brick, has argued publicly that BTC has already reached its correction bottom and is preparing for a run toward $140,000 — a prediction, not a fact, but a reminder that the most aggressive bulls are buying this dip, not selling it.

In the base scenario, Bitcoin does what it has done for five weeks: grind sideways-to-down inside a range. Bitfinex analysts expect BTC to trade between $72,350 and $79,400 ahead of the November 13 expiry, with trading concentrated toward the lower half of that range. That is the most likely outcome on current positioning — options open interest is heavily concentrated around the November and December expirations, and the market is waiting for the Fed decision to pick a direction.

In the bear scenario, $74,600 gives way and the Fibonacci framework flips from support to target. If the level breaks, several independent methods point to the same area near $68,000: the next Fibonacci fan line sits near $67,700 on November 11 and $70,200 on December 12. A daily close below $73,000 would confirm the breakdown and likely trigger another wave of long liquidations. The December 9 Fed hike would then land on a market already falling, which is how corrections become capitulations.

The November 13 Options Expiry: The Next Tripwire

Before the Fed decision, there is a nearer deadline: Friday, November 13, when a large block of Bitcoin options expires. Coinglass options data shows 240,193 BTC in outstanding call contracts against 186,945 BTC in puts — calls still lead at 56% of open interest, a mildly bullish skew. But the positioning is defensive: the November 13 $74,000 put leads Deribit's rankings by volume at 3,563.4 BTC, meaning traders are actively buying protection at exactly the level Bitcoin is trading at now.

Options expiries matter because of a mechanic called pinning. As expiry approaches, market makers who sold those options hedge their exposure by buying or selling the underlying asset, which tends to drag the price toward the strike with the most open interest. With the $81,000 call carrying the largest open interest and the $74,000 put leading by volume, the tug-of-war this week is between a magnet at $81,000 and a floor at $74,000. Which one wins depends on whether the November 11 level holds. If it breaks, the put buyers get paid and the slide accelerates into the weekend — when liquidity is thinnest and moves are sharpest.

The full breakdown of the options positioning is covered in Finvestly's report on Bitcoin slipping below $74,000, and the Fibonacci time-count analysis behind the November 11 date is laid out in Bitget's Bitcoin price analysis for November 11. For a day-trader's view of the same levels, see DailyForex's BTC/USD signal for November 10–11.

What Most People Get Wrong About This Drop

The first mistake is calling every bounce a dead-cat bounce. After five red weeks, skepticism is warranted — but Bitcoin has rallied 51% in 82 days from its July low of $57,700, and it is still about 30% above that level. A correction that retraces a third of a 51% rally is normal market behavior, not a collapse. The test is the level: bounces that reclaim $76,000 and hold it are not dead cats; bounces that fail at $75,400 and roll over are.

The second mistake is treating the Fed hike as already priced in. Yes, markets price a December hike at 81–96%. But "priced in" describes the rate decision, not the reaction. The December meeting is an SEP meeting — it comes with a new Summary of Economic Projections and a new dot plot. If the dots show two more hikes in 2027, the market will reprice the entire path, and Bitcoin will move on the dots, not the decision.

The third mistake is ignoring the calendar. Bitcoin's history is full of dated turning points — halvings, ETF decisions, options expiries — and the market's memory of those dates shapes positioning around the next ones. November 11, November 13, December 9, December 10, and December 12 are five dates in a 31-day window, each capable of moving the price 5% or more. Traders who ignore the calendar trade blind; traders who respect it know when to be aggressive and when to stand aside.

5 Moves to Make Before December 9

The next four weeks reward preparation over prediction. Here is a practical checklist for the run-up to the Fed decision:

• Mark the five dates on your calendar now: November 11 (Fibonacci convergence), November 13 (options expiry), December 9 (Fed decision, 2:00 PM ET), December 10 (November CPI, one day after the Fed), and December 12 (the next Fibonacci date). Set alerts for each one.
• Define your invalidation level in advance: a daily close below $73,000 breaks the support Bitcoin retested after five red weeks; a close below $74,600 breaks the Fibonacci level itself. Decide now what you will do at each level, while you are calm, not after the candle closes.
• Check your leverage before Friday's expiry: with $356 million liquidated in a single day this week and 78.7% of it longs, leveraged longs are the market's fuel right now. If you are leveraged, the November 13 expiry is the moment your position is most at risk.
• Secure your stack before volatility spikes: if you hold Bitcoin through a period like this, it should be in a wallet you control, not sitting on an exchange. Our comparison Best Crypto Wallets for Beginners in 2026 walks through hot versus cold wallets, and How to Buy Bitcoin in 2026 covers buying safely for first-time buyers.
• Plan your December 9 trade in both directions: write down what you will do if the Fed hikes and the dots are hawkish, and what you will do if the Fed surprises with a hold. The traders who lose money on FOMC days are the ones deciding in the moment; the ones who profit decided the day before.

Bitcoin in 2027: Why November 11 Still Matters After December

Zoom out, and the November 11 test is a preview of the bigger question for 2027: can Bitcoin hold its higher-low structure while the Fed tightens again? Since its October 2011 low of $2.22, Bitcoin has gained an average of just under 6% a month. Projecting that growth rate across a 30-year chart places Bitcoin's midpoint at about $79,700 in November 2026 — almost exactly where the price is trading now. The long-term trend and the current price have converged, which is rare and worth noting: Bitcoin is not trading far below its own historical growth path, even after a 14.67% slide from its October high of $87,400.

That is the constructive case for 2027, and it is why our longer-range outlook, Future of Bitcoin in 2027: BTC at $74,500 Is 41% Below Its Peak — 5 Numbers That Decide $53,000 or $250,000, frames the choice as $53,000 or $250,000 rather than a straight line in either direction. The near-term path runs through the five dates in this article. If $74,600 holds and the Fed's dots stay measured, the 2027 bull case stays alive. If $68,000 breaks first, the 2027 story becomes a longer base-building year.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why is November 11, 2026 important for Bitcoin?

Two separate Fibonacci time counts converge on November 11: one measures 0.618 of the 82-day rally from Bitcoin's July low, and the other measures 0.382 of the 2022–2025 bull market. Both point to today, and the 0.382 fan line sits near $74,600 — almost exactly where Bitcoin is trading. The next key date in the same framework is December 12.

Will Bitcoin fall to $68,000?

It is the bear-case target if $74,600 breaks. Several methods point to the same area near $68,000, with the next Fibonacci fan line near $67,700. A daily close below $73,000 support would confirm the breakdown. It is a scenario, not a certainty — the base case is a $72,350–$79,400 range into December.

What is the December Fed meeting date?

The Federal Open Market Committee meets December 8–9, 2026, with the decision announced Wednesday, December 9 at 2:00 PM ET. It is the last scheduled FOMC meeting of 2026 and includes a new Summary of Economic Projections and dot plot. Markets price a 25-basis-point hike at 76–86% depending on the source.

What happens on November 13 for Bitcoin?

A large block of Bitcoin options expires on Friday, November 13. Calls total about 240,193 BTC in open interest against 186,945 BTC in puts. The largest single position is the $81,000 call, while the $74,000 put leads by trading volume — a tug-of-war that tends to pin price near the biggest strikes into expiry.

Is the Crypto Fear and Greed Index at 28 a buy signal?

It is a contrarian indicator, not a timing tool. A reading of 28 means extreme fear, which has historically preceded good multi-month entry points — but fear can deepen before it reverses. Use it to build a plan, not to time a single trade. See our guide What Is the Crypto Fear and Greed Index? for the full methodology.

Should I buy Bitcoin before the December Fed decision?

There is no single right answer, and this article is not financial advice. The practical approach is to decide your levels in advance: what you will do if $74,600 holds, what you will do if $73,000 breaks, and what you will do under each Fed outcome on December 9. For first-time buyers, How to Buy Bitcoin in 2026 covers exchanges, wallets, and common mistakes, and What Is a Bitcoin ETF? explains the funds now driving much of Bitcoin's daily flow.

Conclusion

Bitcoin at $74,700 on November 11 is a market standing on a line that two different clocks drew. The hot CPI print, the $530 million in ETF outflows, the Fear and Greed reading of 28, and $356 million in liquidations all explain how it got here. What decides where it goes next is simpler: whether $74,600 holds through Friday's options expiry, and what the Fed signals on December 9. Hold the level and the path opens toward $79,400 and $81,300. Lose it and $68,000 comes into view fast. The dates are set, the levels are marked, and the next 48 hours will do the talking.