CPI November 10: Bitcoin at $75,700 — 3 Numbers That Decide $68,000 or $80,000

Bitcoin is sitting at roughly $75,700 with one number standing between it and its next big move — and that number arrives on Tuesday, November 10, at 8:30 a.m. ET. The October Consumer Price Index (CPI) report will show whether US inflation cooled to 0.2% or stayed hot at 0.3%, and the difference between those two prints could decide whether Bitcoin crashes toward $68,000 or reclaims $80,000. With the Federal Reserve openly debating another rate hike in December, $430 million already flowing out of Bitcoin ETFs in a single day, and more than $1 billion in leveraged positions wiped out this week, this is the most consequential inflation report crypto has faced all year.

This is not another routine data release. Bitcoin has already fallen about 40% from its $126,080 peak, the Fear and Greed Index has dropped to 28 — deep in "Fear" territory — and traders are openly asking whether this is a bear market or just a brutal correction. Tuesday's print will set the odds for everything that follows: the December Fed decision, the direction of ETF flows, and whether $75,000 holds or breaks. Here are the three numbers that decide it all.

What Happens on Tuesday, November 10

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will publish the October CPI report on Tuesday, November 10, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time — and this one comes with a twist: there will be no official year-over-year inflation rate in it.

The reason is unusual. The BLS collected no prices in October 2025 because the federal government shutdown halted its survey work, and no October 2025 CPI report was ever published. Without an October 2025 index to compare against, the BLS cannot calculate an official 12-month change for October 2026 — anyone quoting an "annual inflation rate" for October is citing a model estimate, not an official number. The last official annual rates remain September's: 3.7% headline and 2.6% core.

What forecasters expect is a cooler month than September. Headline CPI is expected to rise 0.3% month over month, down from September's hot 0.6% jump. Core CPI — which strips out food and energy — is expected to rise 0.2%, down from 0.3% in September. Those two numbers are the ones that will move Bitcoin within minutes of the 8:30 a.m. release, according to the October CPI forecast roundup and the October CPI preview.

The forecasts cluster tightly. The Cleveland Fed's inflation nowcast, updated November 6, puts October headline CPI at 0.24% and core at 0.21% month over month; TD Securities forecasts headline at 0.30% and core at 0.21%. Prediction markets give a 65% chance of a print above 0.2% and only 15% above 0.3%.

Notice how narrow that range is. Every major estimate sits within a few hundredths of a percentage point of the line that separates a "cool" print from a "hot" one. That is exactly why Tuesday matters so much: the market is balanced on a knife's edge, and a rounding difference could swing billions of dollars.

Why This CPI Matters More Than Any Other in 2026

Look at where the market already stands. Bitcoin traded at about $75,700 on Friday morning, down from $80,547 at the start of Thursday — a 6% drop in a single day. Ethereum fell 8.2% to about $2,218, XRP dropped 9.7% to $1.18, and Solana slid 6.9% to about $89. The total crypto market capitalization sits near $2.53 trillion, with Bitcoin's share at about 60%.

The trigger was not crypto-specific at all. It was a violent sell-off in US chip stocks: the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index closed down 12.2% on Thursday, Nvidia lost 9.3%, AMD plunged 17.3%, and the Nasdaq fell 5.5% in its worst day since the pandemic era. The S&P 500 fell 4.4%, erasing roughly $3 trillion in value in one session. Crypto, which has traded in lockstep with tech stocks for weeks, simply followed them down — and leverage made it worse. CoinGlass counted about $1.03 billion in liquidations over 24 hours, with roughly 87% of that coming from long positions that were closed by force as prices fell.

Then the ETF flows told the same story in institutional money. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $430.2 million in net outflows on Thursday, November 5 — the biggest single-day outflow of the month — and not one of the 12 funds took in money. Fidelity's FBTC led the exodus with $199.87 million out, ahead of BlackRock's IBIT at $104.97 million. Spot Ethereum ETFs shed $99.97 million on the same day. XRP ETFs, remarkably, logged zero net flow for a third straight day, while Solana ETFs posted their first outflow of November at $1.18 million.

Friday brought no relief. The October jobs report showed the US economy added 165,000 jobs — about 2.5 times the forecast — with unemployment steady at 4.1% and wages up 0.4% in the month, as reported here. Strong jobs are normally good news, but in this market they mean one thing: the Fed has less reason to cut rates and more room to hike them. Bitcoin fell 1.1% within minutes of the release, touching an intraday low of $74,888, before stabilizing near $75,850.

For a fuller picture of how fear is shaping this market, see our guide to the Crypto Fear and Greed Index and our 7 tests for whether Bitcoin is in a bear market.

The 3 Numbers That Decide $68,000 or $80,000

Strip away the noise and Tuesday comes down to three numbers. Each one has a clear line, a clear consequence, and a clear price level attached to it.

Number 1: Core CPI month over month — the line is 0.2% versus 0.3%. Core CPI is the number the Fed watches most closely, because it strips out volatile food and energy prices and shows underlying inflation. The consensus is 0.2%. The Cleveland Fed nowcast says 0.21% and TD Securities says 0.21% — every serious estimate lands just above or just below the rounding line. The BLS publishes monthly changes to one decimal place, so an unrounded print of 0.25% or higher appears as 0.3%. That means the difference between a market-friendly 0.2% and a market-punishing 0.3% could come down to four hundredths of a percentage point. If core prints 0.2%, December hike odds should fall and Bitcoin gets room to push back toward $79,000–$80,000. If it prints 0.3% — a third straight month at that level — hike odds jump, and $72,000 comes into view fast.

Number 2: Headline CPI month over month — the line is 0.3% versus 0.4%. Headline CPI includes everything, and September's 0.6% jump was driven largely by energy. Forecasters expect energy to moderate: gasoline flattened after September's surge, and shelter costs — the biggest component of the index — should stay near 0.3%. The consensus is 0.3% and the Cleveland Fed nowcast is 0.24%. A headline print of 0.2% could trigger a short squeeze, because funding rates on Bitcoin perpetuals are still slightly positive. A print of 0.4% or higher would confirm September was not a one-off and would likely send Bitcoin testing $70,000 within hours.

Number 3: The December Fed hike odds — the line is 75%. This is the number that translates the CPI print into a Bitcoin price. Heading into Tuesday, markets price a December hike at roughly 73% to 77% depending on the venue. If core CPI comes in cool, those odds should drop toward 60% or below, and history says risk assets rally hard when hike odds fall. If CPI comes in hot, odds push toward 85–90%, the dollar strengthens, and the same leveraged market that just lost $1 billion in a day faces another wave of forced selling. Watch the CME FedWatch tool and Polymarket in the minutes after 8:30 a.m. ET: the speed and direction of the odds move will tell you where Bitcoin is heading before the price chart does.

Bull, Base and Bear: Three CPI Scenarios for Bitcoin

Here is the full scenario map — what each CPI outcome likely means for the Fed, for ETF flows, and for Bitcoin's price. These are scenarios based on the published forecasts and current market pricing, not predictions, and the levels below are the ones traders are actually watching.

Scenario	CPI print (core m/m)	December hike odds	Bitcoin likely path
Bull — Cool inflation	0.1% – 0.2%	Fall to ~55–65%	Relief rally toward $79,000–$80,000; a break above $80,000 opens $84,000. ETF outflows reverse.
Base — As expected	0.2% (headline 0.3%)	Hold near 70–77%	Choppy trade between $74,000 and $78,000. Bitcoin stays under its 200-day moving average near $76,500 until the Fed minutes on November 18.
Bear — Hot inflation	0.3% or higher	Jump to 85–90%+	Break below $75,000 opens $72,000, then $68,000. Another $500M+ ETF outflow day is likely, and leveraged longs face a second liquidation wave.

The base case is the most likely outcome: every major forecaster has core at 0.21–0.22%, which rounds to 0.2%. But September's CPI came in hotter than forecast — headline 0.6%, core 0.3% — and the market punished risk assets immediately. The Cleveland Fed's nowcast also warns that November's annualized CPI could run near 4.25%, so even a cool October print may only buy Bitcoin a few days of relief before the November data, due December 10, takes over as the next worry.

What Most People Get Wrong About This CPI

Three misconceptions are already spreading ahead of Tuesday, and each one can cost traders money.

Wrong: "Inflation is 3.7%, so Bitcoin will react to 3.7%." There is no official annual inflation rate in this report. The 3.7% figure is September's number, and October has no official year-over-year comparison because October 2025 prices were never collected. As explained in detail here, headlines quoting a specific annual rate for October are citing model estimates — the Cleveland Fed's nowcast puts it at 3.74% headline and 2.48% core — not BLS data. Trade the monthly numbers, not a made-up annual one.

Wrong: "A 0.2% print means the Fed is done hiking." Even a cool print leaves the Fed's problem unsolved. The Fed raised its target range to 3.75%–4.00% in September, held it in October with two officials voting for another hike, and the September minutes showed most officials expected another increase by year-end. Core PCE, the Fed's preferred gauge, is expected to keep rising into November. One soft CPI month slows the hiking case; it does not end it.

Wrong: "CPI only matters for a few minutes." The immediate reaction at 8:30 a.m. ET is only the first move. The CPI print feeds into the October PCE estimate due November 25, shapes the FOMC minutes on November 18, and sets the tone for the producer price index (PPI) on Friday, November 13. Tuesday is the start of a month-long inflation story, not a one-day event.

The honest answer to "should I buy Bitcoin before CPI?" is that nobody knows the print in advance. Position sizing matters more than prediction right now. For a longer-term view, read our honest guide, Is Bitcoin a Good Investment in 2026?, and for historical context on how deep this correction really is, see Bitcoin Crash History: What 6 Past Crashes Did Next.

How Bitcoin Has Reacted to Inflation Data Before

Bitcoin's relationship with inflation data has flipped over the years. In 2021 and 2022, hot CPI prints often lifted Bitcoin, because traders treated it as an inflation hedge. Since the Fed began hiking aggressively, the pattern has reversed: hot inflation now means higher rates for longer, a stronger dollar, and lower prices for risk assets — Bitcoin included. The last two weeks are a textbook example: a jobs report that beat expectations by 2.5 times pushed Bitcoin down to $74,888, because strong jobs mean the Fed can keep hiking. The market is no longer asking whether the economy is strong; it is asking whether the Fed will use that strength to raise rates again.

That is why Tuesday's CPI matters more than the jobs report. Jobs data tells the Fed the economy can handle higher rates. CPI tells the Fed whether higher rates are necessary. A cool core print could move the December hike odds down in a meaningful way — and let Bitcoin's dip buyers, punished all week, finally step back in. Funding rates on Bitcoin perpetuals also remain slightly positive even after the billion-dollar flush, so a hot print could trigger a second flush while a cool print could force shorts to cover and fuel a rally toward $80,000. Either way, CPI-day moves in Bitcoin routinely run 3–5% within the first hour.

Your CPI Morning Checklist: What to Watch at 8:30 AM ET

If you hold Bitcoin or are thinking about buying the dip, here is the checklist for Tuesday morning:

• 8:30 a.m. ET — the print itself. Core CPI month over month is the headline number. 0.2% or below is good for Bitcoin; 0.3% or above is bad. Headline CPI at 0.3% is expected; 0.2% is a bonus, 0.4% is trouble.
• 8:31 a.m. ET — December hike odds. Check the CME FedWatch tool and prediction markets. If hike odds fall below 65%, the rally case strengthens. If they jump above 85%, expect selling.
• 8:35 a.m. ET — the $75,000 level. Bitcoin's immediate support sits near $75,000, with the intraday low from the jobs report at $74,888 just below it. Losing that level on a hot print opens $72,000.
• 9:30 a.m. ET — the stock market open. Bitcoin has followed the Nasdaq all week. If tech stocks rally on a cool CPI, Bitcoin usually follows within the hour.
• ETF flows the next morning. Thursday's $430 million Bitcoin ETF outflow was the damage report for the sell-off. Watch Wednesday's data: inflows confirm institutions are buying the CPI dip; another big outflow day confirms they are still heading for the exit.
• Do not trade the first 60 seconds. CPI releases trigger wild wicks in both directions as algorithms react to the headline before reading the details. Wait for the core number, the hike-odds move, and the first 15-minute candle before deciding anything.

What Happens After Tuesday

CPI is the first of three inflation checkpoints in the next month. The producer price index (PPI) lands on Friday, November 13, with the annual rate expected to rise to 6.6% from 6.3%. The FOMC minutes from the October 27–28 meeting arrive on Wednesday, November 18, and the October PCE inflation reading, the Fed's preferred gauge, is due November 25.

Each of those releases will move the December hike odds, and each will move Bitcoin with them. But Tuesday is the one that sets the direction. A cool print gives the market a story — inflation is fading, the Fed can pause, risk assets can recover — that can carry Bitcoin back toward $80,000. A hot print gives the market the opposite story, and $68,000 becomes the next real target.

Either way, one thing is already clear from the past week: this market punishes leverage and rewards patience. More than $1 billion in leveraged positions was wiped out in a single day, the Fear and Greed Index sits at 28, and Bitcoin is 40% below its peak — yet the network itself has not changed and the ETFs are still there. Whether Tuesday turns the buyers who stepped in at $75,000 into heroes or cautionary tales comes down to two decimal places in a government report.

FAQs

When is the October CPI report released?

Tuesday, November 10, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time — and the market reaction usually begins within seconds.

What is the CPI forecast for October 2026?

The consensus expects headline CPI to rise 0.3% month over month (down from 0.6% in September) and core CPI to rise 0.2% (down from 0.3%). The Cleveland Fed nowcast puts headline at 0.24% and core at 0.21%. There is no official year-over-year rate in this report because October 2025 prices were never collected during the government shutdown.

How does CPI affect Bitcoin price?

Hot CPI prints usually push Bitcoin down, because higher inflation raises the odds of another Federal Reserve rate hike, strengthens the US dollar, and makes risk assets less attractive. Cool prints usually lift Bitcoin by lowering hike odds. On November 6, a stronger-than-expected jobs report pushed Bitcoin down 1.1% in minutes to an intraday low of $74,888.

What are the odds of a Fed rate hike in December 2026?

Prediction markets price a December 9 hike at roughly 73% to 77% heading into the CPI report, after the Fed held rates at 3.75% to 4.00% on October 28 in a 10-to-2 vote. A hot CPI print would push those odds toward 85–90%; a cool print could pull them below 65%.

What Bitcoin price levels matter after the CPI report?

Support sits at $75,000, then $72,000, then $68,000. Resistance sits at $76,500 (the 200-day moving average), then $79,000–$80,000. A cool core print of 0.2% or below favors a push toward $80,000; a hot print of 0.3% or above favors a break toward $72,000 and then $68,000.

Should I buy Bitcoin before the CPI report?

There is no safe way to trade an unknowable data release — CPI-day moves in Bitcoin routinely run 3–5% within the first hour, in either direction. The safer approach is to decide your levels in advance, size any position for a move against you, and wait for the core print and the December hike-odds reaction before acting. This article is not financial advice.

Conclusion

Tuesday, November 10, at 8:30 a.m. ET, the October CPI report will give Bitcoin its next direction. The market is balanced on the difference between a 0.2% and a 0.3% core print, with $430 million in ETF outflows, $1 billion in liquidations, and a 73–77% chance of a December Fed hike already hanging over prices. A cool print opens the road back to $80,000; a hot print opens the road to $68,000. Watch the core number, watch the hike odds, and do not trade the first 60 seconds.