XRP Price Prediction: XRP Crashes to $1.19 — 5 Levels That Decide If $1.50 or $1.00 Comes Next

XRP Just Lost 8.7% in a Day — the Same Week the SEC Approved an ETF Holding It

XRP crashed 8.7% to $1.19 on 5 November 2026, its worst single day in months — in the very same week the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission approved a five-coin crypto ETF that includes XRP. The best regulatory news XRP has ever received arrived on the worst possible trading day, and the market sold anyway. Two numbers now decide everything: $1.20, the support XRP just lost, and $1.15, the line below which the sell-off turns into a rout. This article lays out the five levels that decide whether $1.50 or $1.00 comes next, why the ETF approval did not save the price, and the three scenarios traders are watching.

XRP traded near $1.32 on 4 November, up 3.1% on the day, and then gave it all back — and more — in a single session, falling to about $1.19. The drop was not an XRP problem alone: Bitcoin fell 5.9%, Ethereum 7.9% and Solana 6.4%, more than $1.25 billion in leveraged positions were liquidated, and the Fear & Greed Index fell to 28. But XRP fell harder than Bitcoin and harder than the market, and that gap is what holders need to understand.

What Actually Happened to XRP on 5 November

The crash started in the stock market, not in crypto. On Thursday 5 November, the Nasdaq Composite fell 5.5% — its worst session since April 2025 — while the S&P 500 dropped 4.3% and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged 12%, its worst day since the March 2020 Covid panic. A brutal sell-off in AI and chip stocks spread into every risk asset, and crypto, which trades around the clock with no circuit breakers, absorbed the blow first and hardest.

XRP opened the day near $1.32 and closed down 8.7% at about $1.19 — the steepest fall among the top five cryptocurrencies. Ethereum fell 7.9%, Solana 6.4%, Bitcoin 5.9%, and BNB just 3.2%. XRP was the worst performer in the top five, which tells us the selling was not just passive de-risking. Something XRP-specific was also going on.

The derivatives data confirms it. CoinGlass data shows aggregate crypto liquidations hit $1.22 billion in 24 hours, up from $730 million the day before, and 239,861 traders were liquidated. Bitcoin led with $329.57 million, Ethereum followed with $210.36 million — and XRP's own leveraged longs were swept out as the price broke below $1.25, a level that had held through the previous week. When a price breaks a level that many traders have bet on, the liquidations themselves become selling pressure, and the move feeds on itself. By Friday evening XRP traded near $1.18–$1.21, down another 2.4% while some altcoins bounced, and its daily RSI sat at 34.85 — close to oversold, but not yet at the kind of extreme that reliably marks a bottom.

How Bad Was the XRP Crash Compared to the Rest of the Market?

Here is how the top coins performed across the same 24-hour window, using reported market snapshots from 5–6 November:

Asset	Price	24h Change	Market Cap	What Drove It
Bitcoin (BTC)	~$75,800	-5.9%	$1.52T	Nasdaq sell-off, hot jobs data, Fed hike fears
Ethereum (ETH)	~$2,227	-7.9%	$271.8B	$100M ETF outflows, below all major moving averages
XRP (XRP)	~$1.19	-8.7%	$75.6B	Worst in top 5; broke $1.25, ETF flows silent
Solana (SOL)	~$89.46	-6.4%	$52.8B	Pump.fun selling overhang, ETF outflows
BNB (BNB)	~$688.77	-3.2%	—	Relative strength; smallest fall in top 5

Two things stand out. First, XRP fell more than Bitcoin even though Bitcoin is the asset most correlated with stocks — that points to XRP-specific selling. Second, the whole market fell together, which means this was a macro event first and a crypto event second: if the Nasdaq stabilises, crypto usually stabilises with it; if stocks keep falling, no amount of XRP-specific good news will hold the price up.

The macro trigger was a jobs report nobody expected: 165,000 new jobs in October, against 60,000 the previous month and expectations of just 65,000, with jobless claims down to 189,000. Strong jobs data sounds like good news, but for markets fearing inflation it meant one thing: the Federal Reserve is more likely to raise rates in December. Fed hike odds jumped to around 70%, the dollar rose, and risk assets sold off. Our full breakdown is in Fed December Rate Hike Odds Hit 79%: Bitcoin at $75,700 — 3 Scenarios That Decide It.

The Paradox: the SEC Approved an XRP ETF and the Price Still Crashed

Here is the part that confuses most XRP holders. In the same week XRP lost 8.7% in a day, the SEC approved Grayscale's five-coin crypto ETF — the Grayscale Digital Large Cap Fund (GDLC) — holding Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, Solana and Cardano. It is the first multi-coin spot crypto ETF, and XRP's inclusion is a genuine milestone: a regulator that spent years fighting Ripple in court has now approved a regulated product holding XRP. Our full explainer is here: SEC Just Approved a 5-Coin Crypto ETF: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, Solana and Cardano Explained.

So why did the price fall? Because ETF approval and ETF demand are two different things — and right now, demand is the problem. SoSoValue data shows XRP spot ETFs recorded zero net inflows for three consecutive days. Cumulative net inflows stand at $1.81 billion with net assets of $1.49 billion, but the flow has stopped. Bitcoin ETFs managed $74.57 million of inflows on 4 November and Ethereum ETFs $53.02 million the same day. XRP and Solana ETFs took in nothing.

That silence is the market's real verdict. An approval opens a door; it does not force anyone to walk through it. Institutional buyers who were waiting for a regulated XRP product now have one, but they are not buying it into a falling market with a December rate hike on the table. The approval matters enormously for XRP's long-term legitimacy, but in the short term flows beat headlines, and the flows are zero. A second headwind: $540 million of XRP left Binance over three days alongside the zero ETF flows — XRP ETF Zero Flows for 3 Days as $540M Leaves Binance — which, combined with falling prices, reads as distribution by large holders.

5 Levels That Decide Whether XRP Hits $1.50 or $1.00 Next

Price predictions are guesses; levels are facts. These are the five prices analysts are watching for XRP right now, drawn from the reported support and resistance clusters. Every scenario in the next section runs through one of these levels.

Level 1: $1.20 — the line XRP just lost. The $1.20 area was support before the crash; it is now the first resistance. If XRP reclaims $1.20 on a daily close and holds it, the crash looks like a shakeout. If it cannot, the breakdown is confirmed.

Level 2: $1.25–$1.28 — the reclaim zone. This was the floor that held through the previous week. Reclaiming it would mean buyers have absorbed the forced selling and open the path back toward $1.32 — but it would take a Nasdaq recovery plus a return of ETF inflows.

Level 3: $1.32–$1.36 — the pre-crash base. XRP traded at $1.32, up 3.1%, on 4 November. Recovering this band would declare the correction over — and mean the market has decided the ETF approval matters more than the macro fear.

Level 4: $1.15 — the last defence. This level decides whether the current move is a correction or the start of something worse. A daily close below $1.15 would likely trigger another wave of leveraged long liquidations, the same mechanism that accelerated the 5 November fall.

Level 5: $1.10 — the line where the bear case gets real. If $1.15 fails, $1.10 is next. From $1.19, that is only a 7.5% fall — less than the single-day drop XRP just suffered. The distance to the bear case is one bad day.

For background on what XRP is, see What Is XRP? The Complete Beginner's Guide to How XRP Works in 2026, and for how spot ETFs work — creation, redemption, and why flows matter more than approvals — read What Is a Bitcoin ETF? How Spot ETFs Work in 2026.

Bull, Base and Bear: 3 Scenarios for XRP

Predictions without probabilities are just wishes. Here are the three scenarios, with the levels above as triggers. These are analytical scenarios based on the reported data, not financial advice.

Scenario	Target	Trigger	Probability	What Must Happen
Bull: ETF flows return	$1.50	Daily close above $1.28	25%	XRP ETF inflows resume; Nasdaq stabilises; Fed hike odds fall below 50%
Base: range-bound grind	$1.15–$1.32	Hold $1.15, fail $1.28	50%	Stocks stop falling; ETF flows stay at zero; no new selling catalyst
Bear: support breaks	$1.00–$1.10	Daily close below $1.15	25%	Fed hikes in December; Nasdaq falls further; leveraged longs liquidate again

The base case is a grind. XRP is caught between a positive structural story — ETF approval, tokenised commodities growth, regulatory clarity — and a negative market: a 70% chance of a December rate hike, a Nasdaq in correction, and zero ETF inflows. When forces balance, prices chop sideways, and the range is $1.15 to $1.32.

The bull case is real but narrow. It needs the Nasdaq to stop falling first, because crypto has not decoupled from stocks — Bitcoin fell in lockstep with the Nasdaq, and XRP fell harder. If equities stabilise and XRP ETF inflows resume, a move to $1.50 is a 26% rally from $1.19 — large, but smaller than the single-day moves this market has already produced. The trigger is a daily close above $1.28, which would break the descending channel of lower highs and lower lows.

The bear case is one bad day away. A daily close below $1.15 opens $1.10, and a break of $1.10 opens $1.00 — a round number that would likely trigger the same liquidation cascade seen on 5 November. The RSI at 34.85 is near oversold, which argues against chasing shorts, but oversold can stay oversold for weeks in a macro sell-off. Fear & Greed at 28 tells the same story: scared markets do not bottom on a single green candle. Our full read is here: Crypto Fear and Greed Index at 28: What Happens Next for Bitcoin.

What Most People Get Wrong About XRP and ETFs

Myth 1: "ETF approval means the price goes up." Wrong, at least in the short term. Approval is a permission slip, not a purchase order. Bitcoin's own spot ETFs took weeks to build momentum, and XRP's dedicated ETFs have posted zero flows for three straight days despite the GDLC approval. Flows, not headlines, move prices.

Myth 2: "XRP crashed because something is wrong with XRP." Mostly wrong. The primary cause was macro: hot jobs data, rising rate-hike odds, and a tech sell-off. XRP fell harder than Bitcoin, which points to XRP-specific selling — the zero ETF flows and the Binance outflows — but no hack, lawsuit or network outage drove this move.

Myth 3: "The XRP Ledger is dead because the price fell." Wrong. While the price crashed, the XRP Ledger led tokenised commodities in 2026 with a $2.2 billion Justoken fund — real institutional usage that has nothing to do with the daily price. Read that story here: XRP Ledger Leads Tokenized Commodities With $2.2 Billion in 2026. Price and usage can diverge for months.

Myth 4: "Oversold means it must bounce." Wrong. An RSI of 34.85 is close to oversold, but in a macro sell-off oversold readings can persist while prices grind lower. Oversold is a condition, not a signal. Wait for a reclaim of $1.20, not for an indicator reading.

What the Whales, the Ledger and the Market Are Doing Now

Three data points beyond the price deserve attention. First, the XRP Ledger's tokenised commodities story: a $2.2 billion Justoken fund now leads tokenised commodities on the network — institutional plumbing that does not appear in a price chart but determines where the asset sits in five years. Second, the exchange flows: $540 million of XRP left Binance over three days — the honest reading is that big money is repositioning, not accumulating aggressively.

Third, Bitcoin. It sits near $75,800, down about 40% from its October 2025 record high of $126,080, and it is testing its 50-week moving average near $75,552. Our latest Bitcoin analysis is here: Bitcoin Price Prediction November 2026: $75,000 Is Where Short-Term Holders and Cost Basis Decide It. If Bitcoin loses $75,000, XRP's $1.15 support will be tested the same day. And until the December Fed meeting — hike odds near 70% — every strong economic data point is bad news for crypto, because strong data keeps the hike on the table.

Should You Buy, Sell or Hold XRP Now? A Checklist, Not Advice

This is not financial advice — it is a decision framework. Work through it before you touch your position.

• Check your time horizon. If you need this money in the next three months, you are gambling on the December Fed meeting. If your horizon is two years, the ETF approval and the Ledger's tokenisation growth matter far more than this week's 8.7% drop.
• Check the $1.20 level first. A daily close back above $1.20 changes the picture; another close below it confirms the breakdown. Do not buy because the RSI looks low — wait for the level.
• Check the ETF flows, not the headlines. The first day of real inflows after three days of zero is a more important signal than any approval announcement.
• Check your position size. If an 8.7% day makes you panic, the position is too big. Size for XRP's daily volatility, not for the calm days.
• Check your storage. If you hold XRP on an exchange, understand the counterparty risk. Our wallet guide is here: Best Crypto Wallets for Beginners in 2026.
• Check Bitcoin. XRP will not bottom while Bitcoin is breaking $75,000 — watch that level as closely as $1.20.

FAQs

Why did XRP crash to $1.19?

XRP fell 8.7% to about $1.19 on 5 November 2026 during a broad market sell-off. The Nasdaq fell 5.5% — its worst day since April 2025 — after a hotter-than-expected U.S. jobs report (165,000 jobs vs 65,000 expected) pushed December Fed rate-hike odds to around 70%. XRP fell harder than Bitcoin (-5.9%) because XRP spot ETFs recorded zero inflows for a third straight day and $540 million of XRP left Binance. More than $1.22 billion in crypto positions were liquidated in 24 hours.

What is the XRP price prediction for November 2026?

Analytical scenarios, not guarantees: base case (50%) is a $1.15–$1.32 range while the market waits for the December Fed meeting. Bull case ($1.50, 25%) needs a daily close above $1.28 plus returning XRP ETF inflows and a stabilising Nasdaq. Bear case ($1.00–$1.10, 25%) triggers on a daily close below $1.15.

Did the SEC approve an XRP ETF?

Yes — the SEC approved Grayscale's Digital Large Cap Fund (GDLC), a five-coin spot crypto ETF holding Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, Solana and Cardano, the first multi-coin spot crypto ETF. But approval has not yet produced demand: dedicated XRP spot ETFs recorded zero net inflows for three consecutive days around the approval.

Is XRP a good investment after the crash?

That depends on your horizon and risk tolerance. The bull case rests on ETF approval, regulatory clarity and real usage growth on the XRP Ledger, including a $2.2 billion tokenised commodities fund. The bear case rests on a 70% chance of a December Fed hike, zero ETF inflows and a descending price channel. XRP is down roughly 65% from its all-time high of about $3.40 set in January 2018. Do your own research and never invest money you cannot afford to lose.

What is the next support level for XRP?

The immediate support is $1.15, with $1.10 below it. XRP lost $1.20, now the first resistance. A daily close below $1.15 would likely trigger another wave of leveraged liquidations and open $1.10, and a break of $1.10 would open $1.00. On the upside, reclaiming $1.25–$1.28 breaks the descending channel, and $1.32–$1.36 is the pre-crash base.

How is XRP different from Bitcoin and Ethereum?

XRP is the native asset of the XRP Ledger, designed for fast, cheap cross-border payments, with transactions confirming in seconds. Bitcoin is primarily a store of value with a fixed 21 million supply, and Ethereum is a smart-contract platform. XRP's investment case is tied to payments infrastructure and institutional tokenisation, but its price stays highly correlated with Bitcoin in sell-offs — as the 5 November crash showed.

Conclusion

XRP's 8.7% crash to $1.19 is a paradox wrapped in a warning. The paradox: the best regulatory week in XRP's history — a five-coin ETF approval from the SEC — produced the worst trading day in months, because approvals do not create demand and a hot jobs report put a December rate hike on the table. The warning: XRP fell harder than Bitcoin, its ETFs took in zero dollars for three days, and $540 million left Binance. The market is not buying this dip yet.

The five levels are the map: a 50% chance of a $1.15–$1.32 grind, a 25% chance of an ETF-flow-driven run to $1.50, and a 25% chance of a break toward $1.00 if $1.15 fails. But do not confuse a bad week with a broken asset: the XRP Ledger is tokenising $2.2 billion of commodities and the SEC has approved a regulated product holding XRP. Watch $1.20, watch the ETF flows, and watch the Fed — in that order.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency prices are highly volatile and you can lose some or all of your money. Always do your own research before making any investment decision.

Sources: CoinGabbar; TradingView / dpa-AFX; 36Crypto; CoinGabbar ETF News.