Will Bitcoin Fall Below $70,000? 5 Levels That Decide $70K or $85K After the $1.24B Liquidation Crash

Bitcoin Crashed to $75,600 — and $70,000 Is Now a Real Question

Bitcoin fell 6% in 24 hours to around $75,600 on Friday, November 6, 2026, wiping out $1.24 billion in leveraged positions and dragging the entire crypto market down with it. Ethereum lost 8.5% to about $2,220, Solana dropped 6.7% to $89, and the total crypto market cap shrank to $2.56 trillion. The question every holder is asking this morning is brutally simple: does Bitcoin fall below $70,000 next — or is this the bottom?

The honest answer is that five specific price levels will decide it, and two of them get tested today. A $2.65 billion Bitcoin options expiry hits Deribit at 08:00 UTC this morning, and the US jobs report lands later today. Here is what each level means, what the data actually says, and the three scenarios that decide whether Bitcoin sees $70,000 or $85,000 first.

What Just Happened: The Crash in 7 Numbers

Bitcoin's slide was fast, broad, and driven by Wall Street, not by crypto itself. The Nasdaq fell 4.2% to 5.5% as AI and semiconductor stocks sold off, and Bitcoin — now trading as a leveraged tech proxy, as we covered in our analysis of why Bitcoin no longer behaves like digital gold — followed it down almost tick for tick.

• Bitcoin's 24-hour range ran from $80,832 down to $75,259, a swing of more than $5,500 in a single day, according to Phemex trading data.
• $1.24 billion in crypto positions was liquidated in 24 hours, with 88.6% of them longs, according to CoinGlass. Bitcoin alone accounted for $325 million of forced selling, 90.2% of it long positions.
• Bitcoin is now down roughly 40% from its all-time high of $126,080, a drawdown that puts this correction among the deepest of the current cycle.
• Bitcoin slipped below its 50-week moving average of $75,733, a line that had held through every dip since September.
• US spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $1.04 billion in two sessions — $643.2 million in one session and $398.6 million on November 2, according to Farside Investors data.
• Ethereum fell 8.5% to $2,216 and lost its 200-day moving average, while Solana dropped to $89.06.
• The Crypto Fear & Greed Index sat at 34, in "Fear" territory, after briefly recovering to 50 (Neutral) following the US midterm results.

The trigger was a pile-up, not a single event. The tech rout came first. Then came the political reality: Democrats won control of both chambers of Congress in the November 3 midterms, which makes the crypto industry's flagship CLARITY Act — the market-structure bill the industry has waited years for — significantly harder to pass. And the market was already fragile after the $6.3 billion Binance hack on October 29, which the FBI attributed to the North Korea-linked TraderTraitor group and which froze withdrawals for days.

The 5 Levels That Decide $70,000 or $85,000

Forget the noise. Bitcoin's next move runs through five price levels, and each one has a job. Here they are, from the one being tested right now to the one that decides the cycle.

Level	What it is	What happens if it breaks
$76,300 – $76,500	Immediate support, the floor of Thursday's bounce	A daily close below it opens the door to $75,000 within hours
$75,000	Psychological round number and the week's low zone	Losing it triggers stop-losses and exposes the $73,000–$75,000 demand zone
$73,000	Bottom of the demand zone flagged in Coinbase analysis; near the 200-day moving average (~$73,188)	A break below $73,000 puts $70,000 directly in play, about 8% lower
$70,000	The bull-market support band (early-to-mid $70,000s), per analyst Benjamin Cowen	Losing it would confirm a deeper correction toward $65,000, where dip buyers last stepped in with size
$80,000	The 50-day moving average zone and the level of the failed post-election bounce	Reclaiming it flips the script — the next stops are $82,000 and $85,000

The maths behind the $70,000 call is straightforward. As CoinPaper's analysis put it this week, a sustained breakdown below $76,000 exposes $75,000, then the $73,000–$75,000 demand zone — and below $73,000, the psychological $70,000 level becomes a plausible bearish target, representing roughly 8.4% downside from $76,455. That is not a prediction. It is a map: if $73,000 fails, $70,000 is the next place buyers are actually waiting.

Analyst Benjamin Cowen, who called the 2021 crypto crash in advance, frames the same zone differently. He puts the bull-market support band in the early-to-mid $70,000s and says the two paths from here are a sharp, short capitulation — panicked holders selling all at once — or a defence of the $73,000–$77,000 zone, a bounce toward $79,000–$80,000, and then one final leg lower in November. As TheStreet reported, Cowen's message is not to chase moves in either direction: his cycle calendar says the accumulation phase began on July 1, 2026, past cycle bottoms in 2014, 2018 and 2022 all came after midterm votes, and he expects a new bull run in 2027.

Bull, Base, Bear: 3 Scenarios for the Next 72 Hours

Three scenarios cover almost everything that can happen next. The probabilities are our judgement, based on the levels above and the two catalysts landing today — the options expiry and the jobs report.

Scenario	Trigger	Price path	Probability
Bull: the $85,000 reclaim	Jobs report cools rate fears; $76,300 holds; options expiry passes without a flush	BTC reclaims $78,000–$78,500, then $80,000, then $82,000–$85,000	25%
Base: the $73,000–$80,000 chop	$75,000 holds but $80,000 rejects every rally; volatility stays high	Bitcoin grinds sideways for days, testing $75,000 repeatedly without breaking it	45%
Bear: the $70,000 test	Jobs report disappoints; $73,000 breaks on heavy volume; ETF outflows accelerate	BTC slides to $70,000, and if that fails, $65,000 — where dip buyers last showed real size	30%

The base case — messy, choppy, range-bound — is the most likely precisely because both sides have ammunition. Bears have the trend, the ETF outflows and the Nasdaq. Bulls have the oversold readings: Bitcoin's daily RSI sits around 34–39, just above the oversold mark of 30, and the Fear & Greed Index at 34 says sellers are already crowded. Crowded trades rarely pay off for the crowd.

Today's $2.65 Billion Options Expiry: What Actually Happens at 08:00 UTC

Today is not a normal Friday. Approximately $2.65 billion worth of Bitcoin options expire on Deribit at 08:00 UTC, with a "max pain" price of $79,000 and a put-call ratio of 0.33 — meaning there are roughly three times as many calls as puts in the expiring set. That matters because Bitcoin is trading around $75,600, some $3,400 below max pain. Getting to $79,000 before expiry would require a sharp rally that the current selling makes unlikely, so most of those call options are set to expire worthless.

What does that mean in practice? Two things. First, the expiry itself can add volatility in the hours around 08:00 UTC as market makers hedge and unwind positions — a final flush is possible even if the broader trend is sideways. Second, once the expiry clears, one source of downward pressure disappears: the hedging flows that pushed price toward the strike levels stop. Expiries are often followed by a relief bounce, not because the market turns bullish, but because the mechanical selling ends. We covered the full setup in our breakdown of the $2.65 billion options expiry earlier this week — the scenarios there still hold, but the crash has moved the starting price $5,000 lower.

Why $70,000 Matters More Than Any Other Number

$70,000 is not just a round number. Three separate things converge there. First, it is the bottom of Cowen's bull-market support band — the zone that separates a correction inside a bull market from a genuine bear market. Second, it is roughly where the 2026 accumulation phase began to build: buyers who stepped in during the summer lows sit near this level, and their conviction gets tested if price returns there. Third, it is the line below which the floor that actually matters — $65,000, where dip buyers last stepped in with size, according to CryptoDaily's chart analysis — comes into view. Below $65,000, the next support sits near $62,000, and a slide there would erase most of the year's cushion above the long-term trend line.

That is also why the "is this a bear market?" debate is missing the point. We ran seven tests for whether Bitcoin is in a bear market earlier this week, and the verdict was mixed — several tests say correction, not bear market, but the trend tests were failing one by one. The $70,000 level is the tiebreaker. Hold it, and this stays a brutal correction inside a longer uptrend. Lose it on a weekly close, and the conversation changes completely.

There is also a corporate angle that makes $70,000 more dangerous than usual. Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) now holds Bitcoin at an average cost of around $75,451 — meaning the company's entire stack is already underwater at current prices, as we reported in our piece on Strategy's cost basis. Strategy's stock fell more than 11% in the sell-off, and Coinbase fell about 10%. If Bitcoin drops toward $70,000, the pressure on these stocks — and on the leveraged buyers who copied them — intensifies, which can feed back into spot selling.

What Most People Get Wrong About This Crash

Three misconceptions are doing the rounds this morning, and all three cost people money.

Myth 1: "Bitcoin crashed because of crypto." It did not. The Nasdaq fell 4.2% to 5.5% in the same session, AI stocks led the rout, and Bitcoin followed. When tech crashes, Bitcoin crashes with it — the correlation has been near lockstep all year. Blaming crypto-specific news misses the driver, and it means the recovery also depends on tech, not on a crypto catalyst.

Myth 2: "The midterm results caused the crash." The timing looks guilty — Bitcoin bounced above $80,000 on the election results, then gave it all back — but the bounce and the crash had different causes. The bounce was a short squeeze, roughly $380 million of it, plus ETF inflows of $74.6 million. The crash was the tech rout plus $1.24 billion in liquidations. The Democrats' win matters for the CLARITY Act's future, but it did not liquidate a billion dollars of longs. Politics set the mood; leverage set the price.

Myth 3: "An oversold RSI means the bottom is in." Bitcoin's RSI near 34–39 is close to oversold, but oversold is not the same as bottomed. In strong downtrends, RSI can sit below 30 for days while price keeps falling — the 2022 bear market proved that repeatedly. Oversold tells you sellers are exhausted, not that buyers have arrived. The confirmation is a reclaim of a level, not a reading on an indicator. That is why the $76,300 and $80,000 levels matter more than any oscillator.

The Jobs Report Wildcard: Why Today Could Swing $5,000 Either Way

The US employment report lands today, Friday, November 6, and it is the second catalyst that decides the $70,000 question. ADP's private payrolls data showed just 86,000 hires, and jobless claims have been running hot — the combination that fed this week's "will the Fed cut or hike?" anxiety. A weak jobs print strengthens the case for a December Fed rate cut, which would be risk-positive and could fuel the bounce toward $80,000. A hot print does the opposite: it keeps rates higher for longer, pressures the Nasdaq further, and pushes Bitcoin toward the $73,000 test.

Watch the sequence, not just the headline. The options expiry clears at 08:00 UTC, the jobs report follows in the US morning, and the weekly close comes tonight. If Bitcoin is still above $75,000 after all three, the base case — chop, not collapse — is winning. If it closes the week below $73,000, the $70,000 test becomes the base case for next week.

What To Do If You Hold Bitcoin: A 6-Point Checklist

This is not financial advice — it is a decision framework for a volatile weekend. Work through it before you touch your portfolio.

• Check your leverage first, not your price target. The $1.24 billion in liquidations hit leveraged longs hardest. If you hold spot Bitcoin with no leverage, a move to $70,000 is a 7% drawdown from here, not a wipeout. If you are leveraged, reduce it before the weekend, not during a flush.
• Decide your $73,000 rule in advance. Will you buy the dip, hold, or trim if $73,000 breaks? Decide now, in calm, and write it down. Decisions made during a red candle are almost always the wrong ones.
• Move coins you do not trade off exchanges. The Binance hack froze withdrawals for days and the FBI is still investigating a $2.47 million theft by one of its own agents. Our cold-storage guide covers the setup — a hardware wallet and a seed phrase written on paper, not a screenshot.
• Do not sell into the options-expiry volatility window. The hours around 08:00 UTC are the noisiest of the day. If you must sell, wait for the expiry to clear and the jobs report to print.
• Watch the ETF flows, not the price. Two sessions of $1.04 billion in outflows did more damage than any headline. If flows flip back to inflows next week, that is the earliest real sign the selling is exhausting itself.
• Zoom out before you panic. Bitcoin is down 40% from its $126,080 all-time high — and it has done this before. Our history of Bitcoin's bull runs and crashes shows corrections of 40% or more inside longer uptrends are normal, not exceptional. The question is not whether Bitcoin falls; it is whether $70,000 holds.

FAQs

Will Bitcoin fall below $70,000?

It is possible but not the most likely path right now. Bitcoin must first lose $75,000, then the $73,000–$75,000 demand zone, before $70,000 comes into play — about 8% below current prices. Analysts put the odds of the bearish path at roughly 30%, with a choppy $73,000–$80,000 range as the base case. The decisive test is whether $73,000 holds into the weekly close.

What is Bitcoin's price today?

Bitcoin traded around $75,600–$76,100 on the morning of Friday, November 6, 2026, down about 6% in 24 hours, with a 24-hour low of $75,259. It is down roughly 40% from its all-time high of $126,080.

Why did Bitcoin crash on November 6?

A tech-stock rout on Wall Street — the Nasdaq fell 4.2% to 5.5% — dragged Bitcoin down with it, triggering $1.24 billion in liquidations, 88.6% of them leveraged longs. The market was already fragile after the $6.3 billion Binance hack and $1.04 billion in Bitcoin ETF outflows across two sessions.

What is the $2.65 billion Bitcoin options expiry?

About $2.65 billion in Bitcoin options expired on Deribit at 08:00 UTC on November 6, with a "max pain" price of $79,000 — the level that would cause the most pain to option buyers. With Bitcoin trading near $75,600, most expiring calls were set to expire worthless, and the expiry can add volatility in the hours around it.

Is now a good time to buy Bitcoin?

That depends on your time horizon and risk tolerance, and nobody can answer it for you. What the data says: Bitcoin is near oversold readings, but oversold does not mean bottomed. Many investors use dollar-cost averaging — buying fixed amounts on a schedule — instead of trying to time a single bottom. Read our beginner's guide to buying Bitcoin before placing any order, and never invest money you cannot afford to lose.

What happens if Bitcoin loses $70,000?

Below $70,000, the next meaningful support is around $65,000, where dip buyers last stepped in with size, and then $62,000. Losing $70,000 on a weekly close would also break the bull-market support band that analysts use to separate a correction from a bear market — which is why it is the level the whole market is watching.

Conclusion

Bitcoin at $75,600 is a market at a crossroads, not a market in freefall. The crash was real — 6% in a day, $1.24 billion liquidated, $1.04 billion in ETF outflows — but the levels that decide what happens next are clear, and they are all within a few thousand dollars of the current price. Hold $75,000 and the base case is a choppy range. Lose $73,000 and $70,000 becomes the question of the week. Reclaim $80,000 and the conversation flips to $85,000.

Today decides more than most days: the $2.65 billion options expiry clears this morning, the jobs report prints in the US session, and the weekly close comes tonight. By Monday, we will know whether $70,000 was a scare or a destination. Until then, the smartest move is the boring one: no leverage, no panic selling into expiry volatility, and a written plan for $73,000 — whichever way it breaks. If you are new to Bitcoin and want the fundamentals before the next move, start with our What Is Bitcoin? beginner's guide.