Bitcoin Crashes Below $77,000: Jobless Claims Hit a 57-Year Low — 5 Numbers That Decide $73,000 or $80,000

Bitcoin gave back its entire post-midterm rally in a matter of hours on Thursday, falling 5% to $76,455 after U.S. jobless claims hit a 57-year low of 189,000. The number killed the market's hope for easier Federal Reserve policy, repriced a December rate hike, and wiped out $370 million in leveraged crypto positions in just 60 minutes. The $80,000 reclaim that dominated Wednesday's headlines turned out to be a trap — and the five numbers below decide whether Bitcoin reclaims $80,000 or slides to $73,000 next.

Just 24 hours earlier, the mood could not have been more different. Bitcoin had plunged to about $75,600 during the U.S. midterm vote count, then rocketed back above $80,000 as Democrats swept both houses of Congress, oil prices dropped around 8%, and U.S. stocks rallied. By Thursday morning, the Fear and Greed Index had jumped from 34 (Fear) to 50 (Neutral), total crypto market value had risen 5.1% to $2.79 trillion, and traders were talking about $82,000. Then the labor data landed — and everything reversed.

What Happened: From $80,962 to $76,242 in One Session

Thursday's session was a near-perfect round trip in reverse. Bitcoin opened at $80,497, touched an intraday high of $80,962, then slid all day to a low of $76,242 before settling near $76,455 — a 5.02% daily loss, according to Finnhub data. Ethereum fell almost 5% to around $2,316, XRP dropped back to $1.27, and Solana lost about 4%. Zcash, BNB and Hyperliquid fell too, wiping out a large part of Wednesday's post-election rebound.

The scale of the reversal is what makes it remarkable. On Wednesday, Bitcoin had closed at $80,441 on Kraken after a 4% daily gain, its best session in weeks. The 24-hour range on Thursday — $75,568 to $80,962 — spanned more than $5,300. For context, Bitcoin is now down 6.63% over the past month, down 10.09% year to date, and down 21.18% over the past year. It sits roughly 39% below its all-time high of $126,080.

The move was not a crypto-only event. High-growth technology stocks fell at the same time, and Nasdaq-100 futures were down 0.8% early Thursday. As CaptainAltcoin put it, the simultaneous weakness across Bitcoin, altcoins and tech stocks makes this look "much more like a macro risk-off event than a new crypto-specific crisis." The trigger was a single labor-market number.

The Trigger: 189,000 Jobless Claims — a 57-Year Low

Initial unemployment claims fell to only 189,000 for the week ending October 31, against expectations of 196,000. It was the lowest reading in 57 years — a labor market so resilient that it gives the Federal Reserve less reason to move toward easier monetary policy, with inflation still above target.

That is the exact opposite of what risk assets wanted to hear. Markets were already pricing a high probability of another rate increase in December — around 81% before Thursday's data — and the claims number pushed that pricing even firmer. Stronger employment data translates directly into expectations of tighter financial conditions for longer, and Bitcoin, which trades as a high-beta risk asset, repriced instantly.

The timing made it worse. The Bank of England raised rates to 4% on the same day — its first hike since 2023 — as Bitcoin slipped below $80,000. Two major central banks tightening in the same session is a brutal backdrop for any risk rally, and it helps explain why the sell-off was so broad and so fast.

There is a second shoe still to drop: Friday brings the official U.S. jobs report, the data point traders have been waiting for all week. If Friday's report is as strong as Thursday's claims number, the December hike becomes near-certain and Bitcoin's support levels get tested again. If it disappoints, the whole move could reverse just as quickly. Either way, Friday is now the most important session of the week — and it arrives alongside a $2.65 billion Bitcoin options expiry.

Wednesday's Rally Was a Trap: The Rally Ran on Short Covering, Not Demand

Here is the contrarian take most coverage missed: Wednesday's reclaim of $80,000 was never built on real buying. It was built on shorts being forced to close. CoinDesk's Daybook analysis laid out the evidence plainly: Bitcoin futures open interest held largely unchanged at $53.40 billion even as price surged, meaning little fresh leverage entered the market. The Coinbase Premium indicator — a widely tracked measure of demand from U.S.-based investors — remained negative, meaning Bitcoin traded at a slight discount on Nasdaq-listed Coinbase relative to offshore giant Binance.

And the flows confirm it. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs took in just $74.6 million on Wednesday, ending a three-day outflow streak but hardly a flood — and that followed outflows of over $400 million in the first two trading days of the week and more than $500 million last month. Within the total, Fidelity's FBTC attracted $236.7 million while BlackRock's IBIT lost $201.2 million: institutional flows remain deeply mixed, not the unified bid a durable rally needs. CoinGabbar's ETF breakdown shows Ethereum ETFs also booked their first November inflow at $53.02 million, while XRP and Solana ETFs recorded zero flows for the day.

What actually moved the price was liquidation. In the past 24 hours, crypto futures shorts worth $450 million were liquidated, with Bitcoin alone accounting for $300 million — the highest since September 21, according to CoinDesk. An earlier burst saw almost $378 million in bearish positions liquidated within a single hour, crypto.news reported. When shorts cover, they buy — and that buying looks exactly like a rally until the covering stops. On Thursday, it stopped, and there was no real demand underneath.

The on-chain picture was warning about this all along. Only about 38% of Bitcoin short-term-holder supply was in profit as of November 4, compared with at least 97.5% in early October, according to data cited by NDTV. When fewer than four in ten recent buyers are in the green, every rally becomes a selling opportunity for trapped holders — and Thursday's data gave them the excuse.

5 Numbers That Decide $73,000 or $80,000

Strip away the noise and the next move comes down to five numbers. Each one is sourced, each one is live, and together they frame the entire trade:

Number	What It Means	Why It Matters Now
189,000 jobless claims	Lowest in 57 years, vs 196,000 expected	Killed the easy-Fed hope; December hike odds firmed
$370 million liquidated in 60 minutes	Leveraged longs wiped out in one hour (Kobeissi Letter)	Shows how crowded the long side was after Wednesday
38% of short-term holders in profit	Down from 97.5% in early October	Every bounce meets sellers who just want their money back
$2.65 billion options expiry Friday	24,912 calls vs 8,223 puts; max pain near $79,000	Dealers hedge around $79,000 — a magnet and a ceiling
$74.6 million ETF inflow	First positive day in November, but tiny vs $500M+ October outflows	Real demand is still missing; the rally needs a second, bigger inflow day

The most dangerous number is the first one, because it changes the macro story. The most telling is the third: a market where 62% of recent buyers are underwater does not rally cleanly. It rallies in short squeezes — and then gives the gains back, exactly as it did on Thursday.

Bull, Base and Bear: Three Scenarios for the Next 48 Hours

With Friday's jobs report and the $2.65 billion options expiry landing on the same day, the range of outcomes is unusually wide. Here is how the three scenarios stack up:

Scenario	Trigger	Price Path	Probability
Bull: reclaim $80,000	Jobs report disappoints; December hike odds fall; ETF inflows follow up with a second strong day	Break $80,000, then $81,300–$82,000 resistance; upper Bollinger Band near $84,240 comes into focus	25%
Base: chop between $76,000 and $80,000	Jobs report mixed; options expiry pins price near $79,000 max pain; no fresh leverage enters	Sideways grind; $76,000–$77,000 support holds, $80,000 caps rallies	50%
Bear: slide to $73,000	Jobs report strong; December hike becomes near-certain; $76,000 support breaks and liquidations cascade	$76,000 gives way, then $75,568 (Thursday's low) and $73,000 — the next major support zone	25%

The base case — sideways between $76,000 and $80,000 — is the most likely precisely because of the options expiry. With 24,912 calls against 8,223 puts and max pain near $79,000, dealers' hedging tends to pin price toward that level into expiry. The coinlab morning brief made the same call before the sell-off, setting a 24-hour base case of sideways at $78,500–$81,000 with 50% probability, and Polymarket's median for November 6 sat near $79,600. Thursday's drop shifted the range lower, but the pinning logic still holds.

The levels to watch are simple. Resistance sits at $81,300–$82,000 — the zone that capped Wednesday's rally and that Bitcoin must clear for any real recovery. Support sits at $76,000–$77,000, the area CaptainAltcoin flagged as the immediate zone to watch, with Thursday's low of $75,568 just below it. Lose $76,000 on a strong jobs report and the $73,000 scenario opens up fast, because the same liquidation mechanics that powered Wednesday's squeeze work in reverse: longs get wiped out, their forced selling pushes price lower, and more longs get wiped out.

What Most Traders Get Wrong About This Crash

The most common mistake after a day like Thursday is assuming the crash means something is broken in crypto. Nothing in Thursday's data was crypto-specific. There was no hack, no exchange failure, no regulatory crackdown. The market fell because the U.S. labor market is too strong for the Fed to ease — a macro repricing that hit tech stocks at the same time. Treating a macro move as a crypto crisis leads traders to sell the bottom of a risk-off day and miss the recovery when the macro picture flips.

The second mistake is reading Wednesday's rally as strength. It was not. A rally built on $450 million of short liquidations, flat open interest and a negative Coinbase premium is a rally with no foundation. The traders who bought Wednesday's breakout above $80,000 bought the top of a squeeze — and Thursday's 5% drop is the bill for it. The lesson is old but keeps repeating: price up on liquidations is not the same as price up on demand, and the difference shows up within 24 hours.

The third mistake is assuming ETF flows will save the market. They might — eventually. But November's first inflow day was $74.6 million against October outflows of more than $500 million in a single month, and BlackRock's IBIT was still selling while Fidelity bought. One green day does not reverse a month-long institutional retreat. Until inflows print several strong days in a row, the ETF bid is a hope, not a floor. For a fuller picture of how these flows work, see our step-by-step guide to buying a Bitcoin ETF.

What Happens Next: Friday Decides Everything

Friday, November 6, is now the biggest day of the week for crypto, and it arrives with two catalysts at once. First, the U.S. jobs report — the data point that will either confirm Thursday's strong-labor story or contradict it. A hot report locks in the December hike and puts $76,000 support under real pressure. A soft report does the opposite and could send Bitcoin straight back toward $80,000. Second, the $2.65 billion Bitcoin options expiry, with its $79,000 max pain level pulling price toward it like a magnet.

Beyond Friday, the calendar stays loaded. The Federal Reserve's December 9 decision is the next major macro event, and Thursday's claims data has already shifted the debate from whether the Fed hikes to how much room it has left to stay tight. The Solana Breakpoint conference runs November 15–17, and Ethereum's Glamsterdam upgrade timeline remains open after its Hoodi trial was postponed. Any of these can move the market — but none of them matter as much as Friday's jobs number.

For long-term holders, the context is worth remembering. Bitcoin is down 21.18% over the past year and roughly 39% below its all-time high, yet it still holds above its 200-day average near $73,000. The 4-year cycle debate — whether halvings still drive the market or liquidity has replaced them — is unresolved, and this week's whipsaw is evidence for the liquidity side: a single jobs number moved Bitcoin 5% in a day. If you are still deciding whether the current levels make sense for you, our honest guide to whether Bitcoin is a good investment in 2026 walks through the risks and the case, and our guide to the best time to buy Bitcoin looks at what history says about entries after sharp drops.

Checklist: 5 Checks Before Buying This Dip

If Thursday's drop has you thinking about buying, run through this checklist first — it is the difference between catching a dip and catching a falling knife:

• Wait for Friday's jobs report before sizing any position. A hot number breaks $76,000; a soft one reclaims $80,000. Buying the day before the data is gambling, not investing.
• Check ETF flows, not just price. One $74.6 million inflow day means nothing after a month of outflows. Look for two or three consecutive strong inflow days before trusting a recovery.
• Watch open interest and the Coinbase premium. Rising open interest with a positive premium means real demand is returning. Flat open interest with a negative premium means another short squeeze is loading — and another trap.
• Size for the $73,000 scenario. If you buy at $76,500, know your plan if $76,000 breaks. A position that forces you to sell at $73,000 is too big. Our beginner's guide to buying Bitcoin covers position sizing and exchange safety basics.
• Do not use leverage into the options expiry. With $370 million liquidated in 60 minutes on Thursday, leveraged longs were the first casualties. If you want to understand how fast it happens, read how $1 billion in liquidations wiped out traders in 24 hours earlier this week — and how shorting works before betting against the market either way.

And if the volatility is making you question the whole market, the honest framework is in our bear-market check: altcoins say yes, Bitcoin says no — the same five numbers that decide whether this is a dip or a downtrend.

FAQs

Why did Bitcoin crash today?

Bitcoin fell about 5% to $76,455 on Thursday, November 5, 2026, after U.S. initial jobless claims came in at 189,000 — a 57-year low, well below the 196,000 expected. The strong labor data pushed up expectations that the Federal Reserve will hike rates again in December, triggering a broad risk-off move across crypto and tech stocks. The sell-off wiped out $370 million in leveraged positions in 60 minutes.

Is Bitcoin going to $73,000 or $80,000?

Both are live scenarios and Friday's jobs report likely decides. The base case (50%) is sideways between $76,000 and $80,000, pinned near the $79,000 options max-pain level. A strong jobs report breaks $76,000 support and opens $73,000; a soft report could send Bitcoin back above $80,000 toward $81,300–$82,000 resistance. These are scenarios, not predictions.

Was Wednesday's rally above $80,000 real?

Mostly no. The rally was driven by short covering — $450 million in shorts liquidated in 24 hours, with Bitcoin accounting for $300 million — while futures open interest stayed flat at $53.4 billion and the Coinbase premium stayed negative. ETF inflows were only $74.6 million. That is why the gains evaporated within a day: there was little real demand underneath.

What is the $2.65 billion Bitcoin options expiry?

On Friday, November 6, $2.65 billion in Bitcoin options expire, with 24,912 calls against 8,223 puts and a max-pain level near $79,000. Dealers hedge around max pain, which tends to pin the price toward $79,000 into expiry — acting as both a magnet and a ceiling for Friday's session.

Should I buy Bitcoin after a 5% drop?

A 5% drop alone is not a buy signal. Wait for Friday's jobs report, look for consecutive strong ETF inflow days, and check that open interest is rising with a positive Coinbase premium before trusting a recovery. Size any position so a slide to $73,000 does not force you to sell. This article is educational, not financial advice.

How far is Bitcoin from its all-time high?

Bitcoin's all-time high is $126,080. At Thursday's price near $76,455, Bitcoin sits roughly 39% below that peak, and it is down 21.18% over the past year and 10.09% year to date. It still holds above its 200-day average near $73,000.

Conclusion

Thursday was a reminder of how this market actually works in November 2026: Bitcoin does not move on crypto news anymore, it moves on jobs numbers. A 57-year-low jobless claims print of 189,000 erased a $5,000 rally in hours, liquidated $370 million in leveraged positions in 60 minutes, and exposed Wednesday's $80,000 reclaim for what it was — a short squeeze with no demand behind it.

The good news is that the market is honest about what it needs next. Real ETF inflows, rising open interest, a positive Coinbase premium, and a soft Friday jobs report would rebuild the case for $80,000 and beyond. A hot jobs report breaks $76,000 and opens the road to $73,000. Either way, Friday decides — and the traders who wait for the data, instead of guessing before it, are the ones who keep their money. Bitcoin vs gold remains the longer debate, but this week belongs to the jobs report.