CryptoQuant Bull Score Crashed From 90 to 20: 5 Numbers That Decide If Bitcoin's Bull Market Is Over — What Happens Next in 2027

CryptoQuant's Bull Score Index just crashed from 90 to 20 in four weeks. Bitcoin demand shrank by 284,000 BTC in 30 days, its fastest collapse since March 2025. And yet the last time this exact gauge hit 20 — in April 2025 — Bitcoin bottomed, and the score rocketed back to 80 within two months.

Bitcoin trades near $73,700 on November 11, 2026, down 9% in a month and 15% below its September peak of $87,400 — while stablecoin supply shrinks at its fastest pace since the 2022 bear market and the Fed is 90% likely to raise rates on December 9. This article explains what the Bull Score measures, why it collapsed, what happened the last time it printed 20, and the three scenarios — with exact price levels — that decide whether 2027 opens with a recovery or a deeper bear market.

What the Bull Score Actually Measures

The Bull Score Index is CryptoQuant's composite gauge of Bitcoin's market strength. It combines 10 on-chain and market indicators across four categories: demand, investor profitability, network activity, and liquidity. The scale runs from 0 to 100. Readings above 60 signal a bull market; readings below 40 signal a bear market; the zone between is neutral. On October 13, the index stood at 90 — deep in bull territory, with eight of its ten components flashing bullish. By November 10, it had fallen to 20, in the zone CryptoQuant labels "extreme bearish."

That 70-point collapse in 28 days is the story. Single indicators flip all the time; a composite built from ten different signals does not move 70 points on noise. It moved because nearly everything it tracks deteriorated at once: buyers stopped buying, holders slipped underwater, liquidity drained, and network demand faded.

The index has a track record worth respecting — but it is not a crystal ball. It measures the present, not the future, and its most famous recent reading is a warning against overreacting: in April 2025, after the US tariff sell-off, the same index printed 20, then recovered 60 points in two months as Bitcoin found its floor. The score tells you how bad things are. It does not tell you how long they stay bad.

The 5 Numbers That Decide What Happens Next

Number 1: 284,000 BTC — the demand collapse. Bitcoin's apparent demand contracted by roughly 284,000 BTC over the past 30 days, according to CryptoQuant's November 10 report. That is the sharpest demand decline since March 2025. Apparent demand compares new Bitcoin issuance against changes in supply that has been inactive for more than a year; when it falls this fast, it means the market is absorbing far less new supply than it is producing — the textbook definition of a market losing its bid. Until this number stops falling, every rally is a rally into shrinking demand. Watch for it to flatten first, then turn positive: that is the earliest sign new money is returning.

Number 2: $6.6 billion — the USDT drain. Tether's USDT market capitalization fell by about $6.6 billion over 60 days, the largest contraction since CryptoQuant's data series began in mid-2022 — bigger even than the drop that followed the FTX collapse in December 2022. Stablecoins are the cash sitting inside crypto waiting to buy; when $6.6 billion of it is redeemed, the buying power simply leaves the building. Glassnode's wider measure is even starker: total stablecoin supply fell $14.2 billion in 30 days, the fastest contraction since June 2022, leaving supply just below $280 billion, its lowest since September 2025. As Glassnode put it, a return to stablecoin supply growth would be the first evidence of new money coming back. Until then, dip buyers are fighting without fresh funding.

Number 3: -6% — short-term holders are underwater. Investors who bought Bitcoin one to three months ago have seen their unrealized profit margin collapse from +33% on September 22 to -6% on November 10. That matters because short-term holders are the market's weakest hands: when they slip underwater, they sell into every bounce, capping rallies. History offers a useful yardstick — in corrective phases inside previous bull cycles, this same measure has bottomed around -12% before the market turned. At -6%, the pain is real but not yet at the level where capitulation historically exhausts itself. If the margin slides toward -12% while the price holds $70,000, that is the classic washout signature. If it slides toward -12% while the price breaks $70,000, the washout is still ahead.

Number 4: 30 days — the Coinbase Premium drought. The Coinbase Premium Index, which measures the price gap between Coinbase and other exchanges and acts as a proxy for US institutional demand, completed 30 consecutive days in negative territory as of November 10. Thirty straight days of US investors paying less than the rest of the world is not a blip; it is a month-long strike by the buyer class that powered this cycle's rallies. Spot Bitcoin ETFs tell the same story: $1.28 billion left the funds in the week of November 2–6, and Tuesday marked a fourth straight day of outflows. The outflows are slowing — $95 million on Tuesday, down from $201 million on Monday, $412 million on Friday and $430 million on Thursday — but slowing outflows are not inflows, and the premium will not turn positive until US buyers return.

Number 5: $73,200 — the line in the sand. Bitcoin sits almost exactly on its 200-day moving average near $73,200, a level CryptoQuant identifies as the dividing line between a shallow correction and a deeper one. It has already lost the 365-day average at $76,400, which the firm says must be reclaimed to restore a bullish structure. Below $73,200, the next widely watched levels are $70,000 — the bottom of CryptoQuant's expected bottoming range of $70,000 to $76,000 over the coming weeks — and $65,000, the target flagged by analysts after Bitcoin's descending-channel breakdown since September. Above, the levels that matter are $75,600, the average cost basis of short-term holders, and $76,400, the 365-day average. The market is trading inside a $6,000 corridor where the entire cycle's verdict gets decided.

Why the Money Left: Four Forces at Once

CryptoQuant attributes the selling to four overlapping causes, and none of them has fully resolved. First, profit-taking after September's rally to $87,400. Second, a more hawkish Federal Reserve: October consumer prices rose 0.4%, above the 0.3% forecast, and traders now price a 90% chance of a rate hike at the Fed's December 8–9 meeting, with even a half-point move given roughly 15% odds. Higher rates raise the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset, and Bitcoin felt it immediately — it dipped to $72,700 on Tuesday as the hike bets hardened.

Third, the Binance security incident, which shook confidence at the exact moment the market was already fragile. Fourth, the US midterm elections, where the Republicans' defeat shifted the political backdrop for crypto regulation. Layered on top is the derivatives picture: puts dominate Bitcoin options, with eight of the ten most active Deribit contracts expiring between November 12 and 27 at strikes from $69,000 to $74,000. Meanwhile, Bitcoin futures open interest has climbed to about 493,000 BTC, its highest since August 19 — positions are being added even as the price eases, which means the leverage that could fuel either a squeeze or a flush is still building.

The macro backdrop is not helping. Bitcoin sat out a stock-market rebound this week even as Nasdaq-100 futures rose 1.7% on CoreWeave's earnings beat, and the altcoin picture is worse: the Altcoin Season Index has fallen to 40 out of 100, down from 49 last Thursday, while Bitcoin's dominance has risen to 60.5%. When the market's strongest asset cannot follow stocks higher, capital is not rotating — it is leaving. The $715 million in liquidations over the past 24 hours, $580 million of it from bullish longs, shows how many traders were caught leaning the wrong way.

The April 2025 Precedent: Why 20 Is Not a Death Sentence

Here is the number that changes the whole conversation: the last time the Bull Score hit 20, it was April 2025, in the aftermath of the US tariff sell-off. Bitcoin found its floor, the score recovered 60 points in two months, and the market went on to make new highs later in the year. The gauge has cried "extreme bearish" before, and been wrong about what came next — because it measures how bad the present is, not how the future unfolds.

The April parallel is not perfect, and honest analysis says so. In April 2025 the Federal Reserve was not about to hike rates into a sell-off; in November 2026 it probably is, with a 90% chance priced for December 9. In April 2025 stablecoin supply was growing; today it is shrinking at its fastest pace since 2022. Those differences argue for caution. But the market that has to absorb this sell-off is deeper and more institutional than the one that bottomed in April 2025 — spot Bitcoin ETFs, corporate treasuries the size of Strategy's, and a GENIUS Act framework bringing banks toward stablecoins all sit underneath it now.

What actually ended the April 2025 washout was a sequence, not a single event: the tariff panic faded, buyers returned at the lows, short-term holders capitulated, and the demand numbers turned. Watch for the same sequence now — the Fed hike getting fully priced in and the December 9 meeting passing without a surprise, the Coinbase Premium turning positive after 30 negative days, the short-term holder margin touching -12% while the price holds $70,000, and the 30-day demand change flattening from -284,000 BTC. Four checkpoints, all measurable, all public.

Three Scenarios for Bitcoin in 2027

The Bull Score says the present is extreme bearish. The April 2025 precedent says extreme bearish can be the bottom. The scenarios below are predictions, not certainties — each with the levels and triggers that would confirm it, so you can judge for yourself which one is unfolding.

Scenario	Price path	What confirms it	Probability
Bull case: the April replay	BTC holds $73,200, reclaims $76,400, then $80,000–$87,400 in early 2027	Bull Score back above 40; stablecoin supply grows again; Coinbase Premium turns positive; Fed hikes once and pauses	30%
Base case: the slow bottom	BTC grinds between $70,000 and $76,000 for weeks, then bases and recovers toward $80,000	Demand decline flattens from -284,000 BTC; short-term holder margin bottoms near -12% while $70,000 holds; ETF outflows stop	45%
Bear case: the deeper correction	BTC loses $70,000, falls to $65,000, then tests $59,500	Bull Score stays below 20; USDT supply keeps shrinking; Fed signals more hikes in January; $73,200 breaks on volume	25%

The base case is the most likely because it matches what CryptoQuant itself expects — a bottoming process in the $70,000 to $76,000 range over the coming weeks — and because the April 2025 precedent shows that even extreme-bearish readings usually resolve through grinding bases rather than V-shaped recoveries or straight-line collapses. But the next two data points matter enormously: the December 9 Fed decision, and whether stablecoin supply stops shrinking before year-end. A hawkish surprise combined with another month of stablecoin contraction would shift the weight toward the bear case fast. A dovish hold and a return to stablecoin growth would do the opposite.

For 2027, the stakes are bigger than the next $10,000. If the bull case plays out, Bitcoin enters 2027 with its market structure intact, ETF flows resuming, and the next catalysts — the January 27 Fed meeting, the GENIUS Act's January 18 stablecoin deadline, and Japan's first Bitcoin ETFs — lined up behind it. If the bear case plays out, 2027 becomes a year of repair, and the recovery timeline stretches toward the 2028 halving. Either way, the decision is made in the next few weeks, not the next few months.

What Most People Get Wrong About the Bull Score

Myth 1: "A score of 20 means the bear market has started." Wrong. The index has no memory and no forecast; 20 is a measurement of ten indicators today. In April 2025 it printed 20 and the market bottomed within weeks. A bear market is declared by months of lower highs and lower lows, not by one gauge on one day.

Myth 2: "The score fell because of one bad event." Wrong. A 70-point drop across ten indicators in four weeks means demand, profitability, network activity and liquidity all broke together. Blaming the CPI print or the Binance incident alone misses the point: the market was fragile before the triggers arrived.

Myth 3: "On-chain data is useless because price is all that matters." Wrong in both directions. Price told you Bitcoin fell 9% in a month; on-chain data told you why — demand down 284,000 BTC, stablecoin cash down $14.2 billion, US buyers absent for 30 days. Price is the symptom. The Bull Score's components are the diagnosis, and you cannot treat a patient you have not diagnosed.

Myth 4: "If the score recovers, the danger is over." Wrong. The score recovered to 80 within two months of April 2025 — but Bitcoin still had to reclaim its moving averages and hold them. A rising score is a necessary condition for a recovery, not a sufficient one. Watch the levels — $75,600 and $76,400 — alongside the score.

5 Checks Before You Buy the Dip or Sell the Rally

• Check the 200-day average first: Bitcoin must hold $73,200 on a daily close. Two consecutive closes below it, and the base case weakens toward the bear case.
• Check stablecoin supply weekly: Glassnode's total supply is just below $280 billion. The first week it grows instead of shrinks is the first real sign of new money — everything else is noise until then.
• Check the Coinbase Premium: after 30 negative days, a flip to positive for three straight sessions means US buyers are back. One green day is not enough.
• Check short-term holder margins: at -6%, the washout is incomplete. A slide toward -12% with the price holding $70,000 is capitulation; the same slide with the price breaking $70,000 is continuation.
• Check the calendar: the Fed decides on December 9, the GENIUS Act's stablecoin rules take effect in January 2027, and the next Fed meeting follows on January 27. Do not make a full-size decision the week before a known catalyst — size your position for the event, not just the chart.

FAQs

What is CryptoQuant's Bull Score Index?

It is a composite gauge from 0 to 100 that combines 10 on-chain and market indicators across four categories — demand, investor profitability, network activity, and liquidity. Readings above 60 signal a bull market; below 40 signal a bear market. It fell from 90 on October 13 to 20 on November 10, 2026.

Does a Bull Score of 20 mean Bitcoin's bull market is over?

No. It means current conditions are extremely bearish. The last time it printed 20, in April 2025 after the US tariff sell-off, Bitcoin bottomed and the score recovered to 80 within two months. A bear market is confirmed by months of price action, not by a single indicator reading.

What is Bitcoin's apparent demand, and why did it fall 284,000 BTC?

Apparent demand estimates how much Bitcoin the market is absorbing by comparing new issuance with changes in long-inactive supply. It contracted by about 284,000 BTC in 30 days — the fastest decline since March 2025 — because ETF outflows, profit-taking after the September rally, and a hawkish Fed all reduced buying at the same time stablecoin liquidity drained.

What price levels matter most right now?

Support sits at $73,200 (the 200-day moving average) and $70,000 (the bottom of CryptoQuant's bottoming range). Resistance sits at $75,600 (short-term holders' average cost) and $76,400 (the 365-day moving average).

When will we know whether this is the bottom?

Watch the four checkpoints in order: the Fed's December 9 decision passing without a hawkish surprise, stablecoin supply growing again, the Coinbase Premium turning positive after 30 negative days, and the 30-day demand change flattening from -284,000 BTC. When three of the four flip, the bottom is likely in.

Should I buy Bitcoin at $73,700?

That depends on your time horizon and risk tolerance, and this article is not financial advice. The data says the market is in an extreme-bearish washout with a real chance of a deeper drop to $65,000 — and also that the identical setup in April 2025 marked the bottom. Traders who buy here are betting on the April replay; traders who wait are betting on the break of $70,000. Either way, size the position so that a move to $65,000 is survivable, and revisit the five numbers above weekly rather than watching the price hourly.

Conclusion

CryptoQuant's Bull Score crashed from 90 to 20 because nearly everything it measures broke at once: demand down 284,000 BTC, USDT supply down $6.6 billion, short-term holders underwater, US buyers absent for 30 days, and Bitcoin sitting on the $73,200 line that separates a correction from something worse.

But the same gauge printed 20 in April 2025 and Bitcoin bottomed within weeks. The difference between a bottom and a bear market is not the score — it is what happens next: whether stablecoin supply stops shrinking, whether the Fed's December 9 decision surprises, whether $70,000 holds, and whether demand turns. Those are measurable, dated, public facts, and they will all be answered before 2027 begins. The bull market is not over until the numbers say it is. For the framework that separates a correction from a bear market, see our 7 tests for whether Bitcoin is in a bear market and what the Fear and Greed Index at 28 says about what happens next; for the wider view, read our 2028 outlook and our guide on how to buy Bitcoin in 2027.

Sources: Crypto.News, Crypto-Economy, The Block, CoinDesk.