Bitcoin vs Stocks vs Gold: Gold Up 64%, Bitcoin Down 15% — 5 Numbers From the $3 Trillion Week That Decide What to Hold Next

Gold is up 64% this year. Bitcoin is down 15%. And on Thursday, November 5, a single day of selling erased roughly $3 trillion from US stocks — dragging Bitcoin, the Nasdaq and gold into the same storm. If you hold any of the three, this was the week that decided what each asset really is.

The headline numbers from the week ending November 7, 2026, are brutal in their symmetry: the Nasdaq fell 3.4%, the S&P 500 fell 2.7% — its worst week since April 2025 — and Bitcoin fell 2.9% to about $76,000. Gold, the supposed safe haven, jumped 3.4% in a single day to $4,061 an ounce. Same week, same trigger, wildly different results. The Nasdaq's fourth straight weekly decline and Bitcoin's slide toward $75,000 were reported within hours of each other. The difference between the assets is not a slogan. It is the numbers below — and they point to a clear answer about what to hold next.

This article breaks down the five numbers that matter, the comparison table nobody in crypto wants to look at, the correlation myth this week destroyed, and three scenarios for Bitcoin with exact price levels. Every figure is sourced, every prediction is labelled as a prediction, and nothing here is financial advice.

The Week in 5 Numbers

Before the analysis, the raw scoreboard. All prices are as of the November 6 close or the morning of November 7, 2026, as reported by Reuters, CoinDesk, Farside Investors and market data providers.

• $3 trillion erased in one day: US stocks lost roughly $3 trillion in market value on Thursday, November 5, after Democrats swept both chambers of Congress in the November 3 midterm elections and investors reassessed the AI trade. The Nasdaq 100 suffered its biggest one-day rout since the Covid pandemic.
• 3.4% weekly Nasdaq drop: the Nasdaq Composite fell 3.4% for the week — its fourth consecutive weekly decline — and is now in correction territory, down 10% from its peak a month ago. The S&P 500 fell 2.7%, its worst week in more than a year, closing at 7,376.86. The Dow slipped 0.9% to 51,285.73.
• 64% gold gain in 2026: gold is up more than 64% year-to-date, its best annual performance since 1979, trading near $4,305 an ounce and within striking distance of October's all-time high of $4,381. Silver is up 121% this year after touching a record $64.65.
• 15% Bitcoin decline in 2026: Bitcoin traded near $76,045 on November 7, down 14.63% year-to-date and 25.87% over the past year — and 39.72% below its all-time high of $126,156. US spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $1.28 billion across the November 2–6 trading week, including $411.9 million on Friday alone.
• 80% chance of a December rate hike: October payrolls came in at 165,000 jobs against an expected 65,000, and traders repriced the odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike in December to close to 80%. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.894%. October CPI arrives on November 10 and PPI on November 13.

What Actually Happened This Week

The week started with politics and ended with the jobs report. On Tuesday, November 3, Democrats swept both chambers of Congress in the midterm elections. Wednesday brought a relief rally — stocks surged, Bitcoin ripped back above $80,000 from about $75,600, and gold jumped 3% back above $4,000. Then Thursday happened.

Thursday's sell-off was not about crypto at all. It was about the AI trade. Memory-chip and storage names collapsed, the Nasdaq 100 recorded its worst day since Covid, and the VIX — Wall Street's fear gauge — posted its biggest jump since April 2025. The S&P 500 energy index dropped 12% for the week, its worst since April 2025. Friday brought a partial rebound: the Nasdaq gained 1.09% to 24,579.43 and the S&P 500 added 0.32%, but neither came close to recovering the week's losses.

Bitcoin followed the same script, almost tick for tick. It fell from above $81,000 back toward $75,500, briefly setting a fresh 30-day low of $74,888, before steadying near $76,000 on Saturday. More than $1 billion in leveraged crypto positions was liquidated during the week, with most of the losses falling on traders betting prices would keep rising. Bitcoin's daily RSI sat at 38.78, below neutral, and the price rested on its 50-week moving average near $75,560 — the line every trader is now watching.

Then came the jobs report. October payrolls of 165,000 — two and a half times the expected 65,000 — revived bets on a December rate hike, pushing the odds toward 80%. A hot labour market means the Fed has less reason to cut, and that is bad news for every risk asset at once. That is the thread connecting all five numbers: one macro trigger, three very different outcomes. The full breakdown of the hot jobs report and the buyers who kept adding Bitcoin shows both sides of the trade.

Bitcoin vs Stocks vs Gold: The Comparison Table

Put the three assets side by side and the 2026 story is unmistakable. Bitcoin was supposed to be "digital gold." This year it has behaved like a leveraged tech stock — and a weak one.

Asset	This week	Year-to-date 2026	Distance from peak
Gold	+3.4% in one day (Nov 4)	+64%	Near all-time high $4,381
Silver	Near record levels	+121%	Record high $64.65
S&P 500	-2.7%	Positive for the year*	Near record highs before this week
Nasdaq Composite	-3.4%	Positive for the year*	-10% from peak (correction)
Bitcoin	-2.9%	-14.63%	-39.72% below ATH $126,156

*US indexes hit dozens of record closes earlier in 2026 on the AI buildout before this week's sell-off, according to Reuters.

Read the table carefully, because it contains a surprise: Bitcoin fell less than the Nasdaq this week (-2.9% versus -3.4%). For the first time in months, Bitcoin was not the weakest asset in the room. That does not make it a safe haven — it fell, hard, on the same day stocks fell — but it does mean the panic-selling phase may be giving way to something else. The buyers were visible too: treasury company Strive acquired 15,124 BTC between October 1 and October 30, according to its SEC filing, even as ETF holders sold $1.28 billion in a week. Long-horizon buyers and ETF sellers are now on opposite sides of the same trade.

What Most People Get Wrong: The Correlation Myth

The most repeated claim in crypto is that Bitcoin is uncorrelated — that it marches to its own beat and protects a portfolio when stocks fall. This week proved the opposite, and the proof is in the timing.

Bitcoin's worst day of the week was the same day as the Nasdaq's worst day since Covid. Its bounce above $81,000 came on the same day stocks rallied after the midterms. Its slide back toward $75,500 came as the jobs report repriced Fed hike odds. When the macro trigger fires, Bitcoin moves with stocks, not against them. The correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq has been measured at 0.68 in 2026 — high enough that treating them as diversifiers is a mistake. Our earlier deep dive into that Bitcoin–Nasdaq correlation explains why the link keeps strengthening as institutions dominate crypto flows.

The "digital gold" claim fails the second test as well. Real gold is up 64% this year; Bitcoin is down 15%. Gold's rally is driven by central banks — they added 387 tonnes to reserves in the first half of 2026, the fastest pace in over a decade — and by investors fleeing exactly the kind of week we just had. Gold is nearing its all-time high again as Bitcoin hits a historic low against it, and the divergence has now reached levels seen only three times before. Bitcoin, meanwhile, is still waiting for its own buyers to return: ETF flows have been negative for weeks, and the funds that were supposed to be the steady bid have become the steady sellers.

Here is the number that captures the whole story: Bitcoin's relative strength index against gold has dropped below 30 for only the fourth time in history, according to trader Michaël van de Poppe, and the BTC/gold pair has tested a long-term ascending support line for the fourth time since 2019. Every previous test of that line marked a major turning point. That is not a prediction — it is a fact about how rare this divergence has become. For a full view of how far Bitcoin has fallen from its peak, see our comparison of past Bitcoin crashes and our Bitcoin vs gold head-to-head.

Three Scenarios for Bitcoin: $65,000, $76,000 or $100,000?

Nobody knows where Bitcoin goes next. What we can do is map the levels that decide it. The table below is a scenario framework, not a forecast — each path is triggered by a specific event in the next two weeks.

Scenario	Trigger	Price levels	Probability*
Bull: reclaim and run	Soft CPI on Nov 10 cools hike odds; ETF outflows reverse	Reclaim $80,000–$82,000, then $100,000 (heavy options open interest at the Dec 26 $100K strike)	25%
Base: sideways grind	CPI in line; 50-week average near $75,560 holds	Range $74,800–$77,500; Polymarket's median for Sunday is $76,129	55%
Bear: support breaks	Hot CPI confirms a December hike; ETF selling accelerates	Break below $75,000 opens $70,000, then $65,000 (about 14.6% below current levels)	20%

*Probabilities are illustrative scenario weights based on the base case published by market analysts for the coming days, not a statistical model.

The base case is sideways, and the reason is simple: US markets are shut for the weekend, spot volume has nearly halved, and the market is waiting for the CPI print on November 10. The bear case is the one to respect, not fear: analyst Crypto Lens has publicly mapped a path from $76,000 through $70,000 to $65,000 before any recovery, and the liquidation clusters overhead at $76,500–$77,500 mean every bounce into that zone meets sellers first. The bull case has one real catalyst: if CPI comes in soft and December hike odds collapse, the same ETF flows that sold $1.28 billion this week can reverse fast — and the December 26 options market is already positioned for a $100,000 strike. For the full Fed picture, read our December rate-hike scenarios and our CPI preview for November 10.

What It Means for Your Money: A 5-Point Checklist

Comparisons are only useful if they change a decision. Here is the practical checklist this week forces on every holder.

• Check your real allocation, not your intended one: if Bitcoin is down 15% this year while gold is up 64%, your portfolio has drifted. Rebalance on numbers, not on loyalty to an asset. Our honest guide to whether Bitcoin is a good investment in 2026 walks through allocation sizing.
• Stop calling Bitcoin a hedge until it acts like one: a hedge is an asset that rises when your other assets fall. This week Bitcoin fell with stocks. Gold rose. If you want a hedge, own the asset that hedged — or accept that Bitcoin is a high-beta risk asset and size it that way.
• Watch the 50-week average, not the headlines: Bitcoin is sitting on its 50-week moving average near $75,560. A weekly close below it has historically opened much deeper declines; holding above it keeps the sideways base case alive. One level, one rule.
• Follow the flows, not the price: ETF flows led this sell-off — $411.9 million out on Friday alone — while treasury buyers like Strive added 15,124 BTC in October. When flows flip, price follows. Check the weekly flow data before every buy or sell decision.
• Secure what you hold before you buy more: volatile weeks are when exchange failures and scams spike. Move long-term holdings to a wallet you control and review our beginner's guide to crypto wallets and our comparison of the best crypto exchanges before moving funds.

What Happens Next: The Dates That Decide It

Three dates will settle this debate before the end of November. October CPI lands on November 10 — a soft number kills the December hike story and hands Bitcoin its bull trigger; a hot number does the opposite. PPI follows on November 13. Then the Federal Reserve's December meeting decides whether the 80% hike odds become reality.

There is also a longer-term tailwind the bears should not ignore: the S&P 500 has risen in the 12 months following every midterm election since 1954. Kitco's post-midterm analysis notes the market did what it has done after almost every midterm — it pumped — while FXStreet's Bitcoin and gold outlook puts the key levels at $80,000 for BTC and $4,000 for gold. If that pattern holds, the same political shock that triggered this week's sell-off could become the setup for a recovery — and Bitcoin, as the highest-beta asset in the room, would likely amplify it in either direction. Gold's own history warns against chasing it at the top, too: it has already gained 64% this year, its best since 1979, and parabolic moves in gold have a habit of correcting just when everyone piles in.

The honest summary of the week is this: gold won 2026, stocks won the decade until this week, and Bitcoin is the asset with the most to prove. It fell less than the Nasdaq this week, its buyers are quietly accumulating while ETFs sell, and its ratio to gold has only ever been this stretched three times before. Whether that is a bottom or a trap will be decided by the CPI print on November 10 and the 50-week average at $75,560. Until then, the smartest position is the one this week's numbers actually support: know what each asset is, size it honestly, and let the next two weeks — not a slogan — decide.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is Bitcoin correlated with the stock market?

Yes, in 2026 it has been strongly correlated. Bitcoin's correlation with the Nasdaq has been measured at 0.68, and this week Bitcoin's worst day coincided with the Nasdaq's biggest one-day rout since Covid. Bitcoin behaves like a high-beta risk asset: it moves with stocks, and usually moves further.

Why is gold up 64% while Bitcoin is down 15% in 2026?

Gold's rally is driven by central bank buying — 387 tonnes added in the first half of 2026, the fastest pace in over a decade — plus safe-haven demand during stock sell-offs and a weak dollar. Bitcoin, by contrast, has faced sustained ETF outflows, including $1.28 billion in the week ending November 6, and a hot jobs report that revived Fed rate-hike bets.

What is Bitcoin's 50-week moving average and why does it matter?

Bitcoin's 50-week moving average sits near $75,560, and the price is resting on it as of November 7, 2026. It is the level traders watch as the dividing line between a sideways market and a deeper correction: a weekly close below it has historically opened the way to much lower prices, while holding above it keeps the base case alive.

Could Bitcoin still reach $100,000 in 2026?

It is possible but not the base case. Bitcoin options data shows heavy open interest at the $100,000 strike for the December 26 expiry, so a soft CPI print on November 10 and a reversal of ETF outflows could trigger a fast move. But Bitcoin must first reclaim $80,000–$82,000, and it is currently 39.72% below its $126,156 all-time high.

Is gold a better investment than Bitcoin right now?

On 2026 performance alone, yes: gold is up 64% and Bitcoin is down 15%. But gold has already had its best year since 1979, and parabolic moves can correct sharply. The assets serve different roles — gold as a hedge, Bitcoin as high-beta growth exposure — and the right mix depends on your risk tolerance, not on one year's returns. This article is educational, not financial advice.

When will we know if the sell-off is over?

Three dates matter: October CPI on November 10, PPI on November 13, and the Federal Reserve's December meeting, where markets currently price an 80% chance of a rate hike. A soft CPI reading and a weekly Bitcoin close above the 50-week average near $75,560 would be the first confirmation that the worst is over.

Bitcoin, stocks and gold all answered the same question this week — and gave three different answers. Gold proved it is still the hedge. Stocks proved the AI trade can break. Bitcoin proved it is neither a hedge nor a stock, but something in between: an asset that falls with the market, falls less than the Nasdaq when panic peaks, and sits on a support line that has only been tested three times before. The next two weeks will tell us which story was right. Watch the CPI print, watch $75,560, and watch the ETF flows — they will decide it before any analyst does.