Bitcoin's $1.115 Billion Capitulation Day: 51.3% of Short-Term Holders Now Underwater — 5 Signals That Say Whether the Bottom Is In

Bitcoin Holders Just Locked In $1.115 Billion in Losses in 24 Hours

Bitcoin investors realised $1.115 billion in losses in a single 24-hour reading dated October 31 — more than double the $519.15 million in realised profits over the same period. Short-term holders sent more than 36,600 BTC to exchanges at a loss, the highest such flow of October. And 51.3% of all short-term holder supply — 1.147 million coins out of 2.2353 million — now sits underwater. That is the payoff of this story in three numbers: the weakest hands in Bitcoin just surrendered at scale, two days after the largest hack in crypto history. The question that decides the next month is whether that surrender is capitulation — the final flush that historically precedes a bottom — or just the first wave of a deeper sell-off. The on-chain data gives a real answer, and it is more nuanced than either camp admits.

Bitcoin trades near $78,500 on Monday, November 2, up about 0.9% on the day, after falling to $77,553 on October 31. The Fear and Greed Index reads 34, in fear territory. But price alone tells you almost nothing about who is selling, why, and whether they are nearly done. Realised losses tell you that — and right now they are screaming.

The 48 Hours That Broke the Holders: A Timeline

Date	What happened	The number
Oct 27	Short-term holders sell at a loss for the first time in 72 days	Net STH exchange inflows −18,600 BTC; only 16% of STH inflows in profit, down from 75% a week earlier
Oct 29	Binance suffers the $6.3 billion hack; Bitcoin closes at $80,991	Realised profits $464.09M vs realised losses $300.66M — holders still betting on a rebound
Oct 30–31	Price breaks below $80,000; delayed hack shock triggers stop-loss selling	Realised losses jump to $1.115B vs $519.15M profits; 36,600+ BTC from STHs to exchanges in 24 hours
Oct 31	Bitcoin falls to $77,553; STH realised price slips to $75,913	STH supply underwater hits 51.3%; 23,284 BTC of liquidity leaves the order book
Nov 1–2	Bitcoin stabilises near $78,000–$78,500	STH-MVRV falls toward 1 from 1.18 in September; long-term holders still not selling at scale

The shape of this timeline is what matters. The hack itself did not cause the capitulation — holders absorbed the October 29 shock, with profits still outweighing losses that day. The breaking point came two days later, when Bitcoin lost $80,000 and the mood flipped from "buy the hack dip" to "get out before it gets worse." That delay is classic capitulation mechanics: first the shock, then the hope, then the surrender.

What "Realised Losses" Actually Measure — and What They Don't

Before going further, an honesty note that most coverage skips. Realised losses compare the value of Bitcoin outputs when they are spent on-chain with the value recorded when they were created. A coin moved at a loss counts as a realised loss even if it was transferred between a holder's own wallets or deposited on an exchange but never sold. The $1.115 billion figure therefore measures loss-taking behaviour, not confirmed open-market sales — and the 36,600 BTC figure measures exchange inflows, not executions. That distinction does not make the signal useless; exchange inflows at a loss are still the best available proxy for panic. But it does mean anyone telling you "$1.115 billion was sold" is overstating what the data proves. Keep that scepticism switched on for every number in this article, including ours.

With that caveat, the scale is still exceptional. The 24-hour loss reading more than tripled from $300.66 million on October 29 to $1.115 billion by October 31. The seven-day sum of short-term holder exchange inflows hit its October high. And the selling was concentrated exactly where capitulation theory says it should be: among people who bought recently, at high prices, and could not stomach the drawdown.

Signal 1: The Loss-to-Profit Ratio Flipped Violently

On October 29, realised profits of $464.09 million outweighed losses of $300.66 million — a ratio of about 1.5 to 1 in favour of profit-taking. By October 31, losses of $1.115 billion dwarfed profits of $519.15 million — a ratio of 2.15 to 1 in favour of loss-taking. That swing, from orderly profit-taking to forced loss-crystallisation, is the fingerprint of capitulation. Healthy corrections are dominated by people selling winners. Capitulations are dominated by people selling losers because they cannot bear to hold them any longer. CryptoQuant contributor GugaOnChain, who first flagged the $1.115 billion reading, put it plainly: investors who bought near the peak moved to crystallise losses and sell. The open question is whether those sellers are now exhausted — or whether another cohort is waiting behind them.

Signal 2: The Average New Buyer Is Now Losing Money

Short-term holders — entities that have held Bitcoin for less than 155 days — carry an average cost basis, the STH realised price, of about $75,913 as of October 31, down slightly from $76,056 at the time of the hack. Bitcoin at $78,500 sits just above that line, which means the average recent buyer is barely above water — and the distribution underneath is ugly. According to on-chain analyst Murphy, STH supply of 2.2353 million coins splits into two humps: 1.145 million coins (51.2%) bought at $78,000–$86,000, now underwater or barely breakeven, and 556,000 coins (24.9%) bought at $60,000–$65,000, still comfortably in profit. That bimodal structure is a tug-of-war: the high-cost hump supplies selling pressure on every rally attempt toward $80,000, because those holders want out at breakeven; the low-cost hump supplies no pressure at all. Which hump dominates the next two weeks decides whether $80,000 acts as a ceiling or a springboard.

The finer cut is even more telling. Coins held for one to three months carry a realised price of about $76,400–$76,500, with unrealised gains of just 1–2%. That cohort is one bad day from joining the underwater majority. Spot activity around $77,500 is therefore crucial: hold it, and the 1–3 month cohort stays green and quiet; lose it, and another wave of loss-taking begins. This is why technicians keep pointing at the $75,718 weekly pivot and the $76,540 50-week moving average — they cluster with the on-chain cost bases, so a break below them triggers both chart sellers and on-chain sellers at once.

Signal 3: The Profitability Collapse Was Fast and Broad

The speed of the deterioration is itself a signal. For the week ending October 27, only 16% of short-term holder exchange inflows were in profit — down from 75% the week before. It was the first week in 72 days that short-term holders sent coins to exchanges at a net loss at all. Glassnode data shows roughly 70% of short-term holder supply was in profit as of October 26, down from near 100% in late September. In about a month, recent buyers went from almost entirely green to majority red. Analyst Axel Adler Jr. argues this pattern can mark a stabilisation phase: when the newest, weakest buyers have already sold, the remaining supply is held by people with stronger conviction, and each further decline finds fewer willing sellers. That is the capitulation thesis in one sentence. But it has a condition: the selling must actually stop. A 51.3% underwater share is not, by itself, proof of exhaustion — it is proof of pain, and pain can deepen.

Signal 4: Long-Term Holders Are Not Selling — but They Are Not Buying Either

The most under-reported part of this story is the dog that did not bark. Long-term holders — coins held more than 155 days — have kept exchange deposits at modest levels, with minimal increases in dormant coin flows. Their spent-output profit ratio (LTH-SOPR) sits near 1.01, essentially breakeven: older coins being moved are, on average, barely in profit. That means the sell-off is almost entirely a short-term holder event. Long-term holders are not panic-selling, which removes the largest potential source of supply from the market. But near-breakeven SOPR also means they are not accumulating aggressively — they are holding, not buying the dip at scale. Capitulation bottoms historically need both halves: weak hands selling out and strong hands absorbing. Right now we clearly have the first half. Evidence for the second half — sustained accumulation by long-term holders and institutions — is still thin, especially with US spot Bitcoin ETFs posting $643 million in single-day outflows on October 30. That gap is the single biggest reason to avoid calling a bottom today.

Signal 5: STH-MVRV Has Fallen Back to 1 — the Line That Decides Everything

The short-term holder MVRV ratio compares Bitcoin's market value with the realised value of recently acquired coins. Above 1, recent buyers are in profit on average; below 1, they are at a loss. Analyst Darkfost reports STH-MVRV exceeded 1.18 in late September — the highest since July 2025, when short-term holders were sitting on their fattest profits in over a year — and has now fallen toward 1. Their average cost basis climbed from about $67,500 in mid-August to around $76,000. An MVRV of 1 is a fork in the road: it can trigger fresh buying from holders defending breakeven, or fresh selling from holders who refuse to go underwater. History offers no automatic answer — MVRV at 1 has marked both bottoms and the start of deeper corrections. What it does offer is a clean test: if Bitcoin holds above the $75,913 STH realised price and MVRV turns back up, the capitulation thesis gains its first confirmation. If MVRV breaks below 1 and stays there while exchange inflows remain elevated, the capitulation is still in progress, and lower prices are the base case.

The Capitulation Scorecard: 5 Signals, One Verdict

Signal	Reading	Bullish or bearish?	What confirms it
Realised loss/profit ratio	Losses 2.15× profits, up from 0.65× on Oct 29	Capitulation-like	Losses cooling while price holds $77,500
STH supply underwater	51.3% (1.147M of 2.2353M coins)	Pain confirmed, exhaustion unproven	Underwater share stops rising for a week
STH realised price	$75,913; 1–3 month cohort at $76,400–$76,500	Neutral — price sits just above	Weekly close above $76,500
Long-term holders	Deposits modest; LTH-SOPR near 1.01	Mildly bullish — no LTH panic	LTH accumulation rising, ETF flows turning positive
STH-MVRV	Falling from 1.18 toward 1	At the decision line	MVRV turning up from 1, not breaking below it

Score it honestly and you get three capitulation-like readings, one neutral and one incomplete. That is not a bottom call — it is a bottom watch. The difference matters, because the cost of mistaking a pause for a bottom is buying into the next leg down, and the cost of mistaking capitulation for the start of a crash is selling into the hands that will profit from your fear. The scorecard's job is to stop you paying either price: check these five readings again next week before changing a position, not after.

What Most People Get Wrong About Capitulation

Three myths need killing. First, that exchange inflows equal sales. They do not — coins can be deposited and withdrawn unsold, and the data cannot confirm how many of the 36,600 BTC were actually sold. Treat inflows as intent, not execution. Second, that one huge loss day equals a bottom. It does not — capitulation is a process, and the $1.115 billion reading is a single 24-hour window whose exact start and end times are not even precisely specified. What marks bottoms historically is a sequence: loss spikes, then cooling losses, then rising accumulation. We have step one. Steps two and three are still missing. Third, that long-term holder calm means the market is safe. It means supply is constrained, not that demand has returned — and with ETF flows negative and the 10-year yield at 4.93%, demand is the scarce resource right now.

There is also a subtler error: reading capitulation as a buy signal by itself. Capitulation tells you sellers are exhausted; it tells you nothing about when buyers return. Buyers return on catalysts — a clean Binance proof-of-reserves report, a soft payrolls print on Friday, a midterm result that revives the CLARITY Act, or simply price holding $77,500 long enough for confidence to rebuild. Until a catalyst arrives, capitulation is a reason to stop panic-selling, not a reason to lever up.

Bull, Base and Bear: Where This Goes From $78,500

Scenario	Trigger	Bitcoin path
Bull: capitulation completes	Losses cool, STH-MVRV turns up from 1, ETF flows flip positive	Hold $76,500, reclaim $80,000, target $82,000–$83,000
Base: slow grind	Losses fade gradually, no catalyst either way, midterms and payrolls mixed	Range $75,700–$80,000 while underwater supply slowly clears
Bear: second capitulation wave	Break below $75,913 STH realised price; 1–3 month cohort goes underwater	Weekly close below $75,718 exposes $72,956, then $74,000

These are labelled scenarios, not predictions. The base case — a slow grind inside the range — fits the data best today, because the capitulation evidence is real but the accumulation evidence is not yet there. That grind is actually the healthy outcome: it lets the 1.145 million high-cost coins change hands gradually instead of all at once, and it lets the market build a base at $76,000–$78,000 rather than on a spike.

Holder Checklist: 6 Moves While Capitulation Plays Out

• Check your own cost basis honestly: if you bought between $78,000 and $86,000, you are the cohort under pressure — decide your plan before the market decides it for you.
• Separate trading coins from long-term holdings: capitulation weeks punish leveraged and short-horizon positions hardest.
• Watch $75,913 and $76,500 as your tripwires: a weekly close below them changes the thesis, not a single hourly candle.
• Recheck the scorecard weekly: falling realised losses plus rising accumulation is confirmation; rising losses plus rising inflows is continuation.
• Verify exchange safety before moving coins: confirm withdrawals work for your assets, especially after the Binance hack.
• Ignore single-day loss headlines after this one: the signal is the trend in losses over 7–14 days, not any one reading.

If you are new to Bitcoin and this on-chain language feels dense, the foundations still matter more than any indicator: our guides explain what Bitcoin is and how it works, how to buy Bitcoin safely as a beginner, and which crypto wallet actually fits a beginner. And for context on the shock that triggered this selling, see our coverage of the 5 tests Binance's proof-of-reserves report must pass and why Bitcoin's 78% volume crash is not the sell signal it looks like. No indicator replaces secure storage and a position size you can hold through a 20% swing.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are realised losses in Bitcoin?

Realised losses measure coins moved on-chain at a price below their recorded acquisition value. When a holder spends or deposits coins worth less than when they were created, the difference counts as a realised loss. The metric tracks loss-taking behaviour; it does not by itself prove the coins were sold on the open market.

Who are short-term holders, and why do they matter?

Short-term holders are entities that have held Bitcoin for less than 155 days. Because they bought recently, their cost basis sits close to the current price, so they react fastest to drawdowns. Their selling — capitulation — often marks late-stage sell-offs, because once they have sold, the remaining supply sits with more committed holders.

Is $1.115 billion in realised losses a record?

It is an exceptional reading — more than triple the $300.66 million recorded on October 29 — and the associated short-term holder exchange inflows were the highest of October. Whether it ranks among all-time records depends on the window and methodology; what is certain is that it is the largest loss-taking event of this drawdown and a clear capitulation-scale print.

Does capitulation mean Bitcoin has bottomed?

Not by itself. Capitulation shows sellers are exhausted, but bottoms are confirmed by what follows: cooling realised losses, falling exchange inflows, and rising accumulation by long-term holders and institutions. Until those confirmations appear, capitulation is a reason to stop panic-selling, not proof the low is in.

What price levels matter now?

The short-term holder realised price near $75,913 and the 1–3 month cohort cost basis at $76,400–$76,500 are the key supports. Below them, the weekly pivot at $75,718 gives way toward $72,956. Above, $78,500 is first resistance, then $80,000, then $82,000–$83,000.

Should I sell if I am underwater on Bitcoin?

That depends on your time horizon, position size and whether you need the money — not on a single on-chain print. Capitulation data describes what other holders are doing; it is not personal financial advice. Holders with a multi-year horizon and secure storage have historically fared better by avoiding forced sales during panic weeks than by joining them.

Conclusion: The Surrender Is Real. The Bottom Is Not Yet Proven.

Bitcoin's $1.115 billion loss day is the most important on-chain event of this drawdown: it proves the weakest hands have started to surrender, that 51.3% of short-term supply is underwater, and that the average recent buyer sits barely above breakeven at $75,913. What it does not prove is that the surrender is over. Long-term holders are calm but not yet accumulating, ETF flows are still negative, and the STH-MVRV sits exactly on its decision line at 1. Watch the scorecard, respect the $75,913 and $76,500 levels, and let the next week of data — cooling losses or a second wave — tell you which story this capitulation belongs to. The market has shown you its pain. It has not yet shown you its bottom.

Sources: CryptoQuant data via TradingView News and AMBCrypto; on-chain analyst Murphy via KuCoin; analyst Darkfost via CryptoFrontNews; TokenPost on-chain data; analyst Axel Adler Jr. via TradingView News; Glassnode research via BitRss. This article is not financial advice.