Solana Price November 2026: SOL at $92 While the Network Sets a 3.3 Billion Transaction Record — 5 Myths Debunked

Solana's Strangest Month: Record Usage, Crashing Price

Solana processed about 3.3 billion successful non-vote transactions in October 2026 — its sixth straight monthly record — while SOL crashed to about $92. That is the paradox at the heart of this market: the network has never been busier, and the token has rarely looked worse. Spot Solana ETFs just suffered their largest weekly outflow since launch, about $71 million, yet on November 3 Solana still recorded far more daily active addresses and transactions than Ethereum. Something in the usual story — "usage up, price up" — is broken, or at least badly misunderstood.

This article separates the network from the token, the ETF flows from the fundamentals, and the hacker headlines from the holder reality. It is not a price prediction dressed up as analysis, and it is not investment advice. It is a myth-busting check of the five claims doing the rounds about Solana right now, with the numbers that support or sink each one, plus the levels and scenarios that will actually decide what happens next.

The Paradox in One Table

Before the myths, the raw picture. These figures come from market reports published November 2–3, 2026, and they describe two different Solanas: a network setting records and a token in a sharp downtrend.

Measure	Number	What it says
October non-vote transactions	~3.3 billion	Sixth straight monthly record, about 109 million per day
November 3 daily active addresses	2.63 million (Solana) vs 495,808 (Ethereum)	Solana had more than 5 times Ethereum's daily users
November 3 daily transactions	94.65 million (Solana) vs 1.88 million (Ethereum)	Solana processed roughly 50 times Ethereum's daily count
SOL price, November 3	About $91–$92	Down about 3.3% in 24 hours and 8.1% in 7 days
SOL market value	About $54 billion	Seventh-largest crypto asset, 590 million SOL circulating
Spot SOL ETF weekly outflow	About $71 million (week ended October 30)	Largest weekly outflow since the ETFs launched
SOL relative strength index (RSI)	27.40	Oversold — the most oversold of the major coins tracked

Keep that table in mind. Every myth below tries to explain away one row of it by ignoring another.

Myth 1: "Record Usage Must Push the Price Up"

This is the most seductive myth in crypto, and Solana is currently disproving it in public. If transactions were a price signal, SOL would be rising. It is not. October's record came alongside a fall of roughly 19% for the month, even as the scheduled Alpenglow upgrade rolled out. Network usage measures demand for block space, not demand for the token as an investment. Most Solana transactions are cheap — that is the point of the chain — so a flood of activity can generate very little fee revenue per transaction and no mechanical buying pressure on SOL itself.

There is a second gap: who is transacting. High transaction counts can reflect bots, arbitrage, memecoin trading and high-frequency applications as much as new human users. Daily active addresses are a better check, and Solana wins that too, at 2.63 million versus Ethereum's under 500,000 on November 3. But even real users do not have to be buyers. A user can bridge in, trade, and bridge out without ever holding SOL for longer than a transaction. Usage is a necessary condition for a healthy chain. It was never a sufficient condition for a rising token price, and treating it as one is how investors buy the top of a usage chart.

What usage does tell you is that the chain is not dying. Chains in real trouble lose developers, validators and users together. Solana's developer and validator picture — including Firedancer, the independent validator client built by Jump Crypto, now running on more than 20% of stake — points the other way. The honest reading is narrower and more useful: Solana the network is thriving, Solana the token is repricing, and those are two different statements.

Myth 2: "The $71 Million ETF Outflow Means Institutions Abandoned Solana"

The outflow number is real and it is a record, but the abandonment story is not. United States spot Solana ETFs lost about $71 million in the week ended October 30, the largest weekly exit since the funds launched about a year ago, and the fourth consecutive week of outflows. Cumulative net inflows fell from a peak near $1.57 billion on October 16 to $1.469 billion by October 30, and total net assets dropped from $1.625 billion on October 19 to $1.399 billion. That is a genuine cooling of fund demand, and it helps explain why SOL fell while its network set records.

But context cuts both ways. First, $71 million is about 5% of the funds' $1.399 billion in net assets — a sharp week, not an exodus. Second, the flows are concentrated: Bitwise's staking ETF, BSOL, the largest Solana fund, accounted for roughly 85% of October's outflows, with its cumulative inflows slipping from $1.175 billion to $1.123 billion. Fidelity's FSOL ($230 million cumulative) and Grayscale's GSOL ($129 million) contributed far less, and Morgan Stanley's MSOL occasionally took in money even during the sell-off. A single large fund rebalancing is not the same as every institution heading for the exit.

Third, Solana's ETFs are structurally different from Bitcoin's and Ethereum's: they launched with staking enabled, passing validator rewards to fund holders. That makes them a yield product as well as a price product, which is why Bitwise Onchain Solutions becoming Solana's fifth-largest validator, after staking 1.27 million SOL, matters. Fund buyers are not just betting on SOL's price; they are buying a regulated route to staking yield. When that route sees outflows, it tells you about risk appetite in a brutal month for crypto — Bitcoin ETFs lost $399 million on Monday alone, after $643 million on Friday — more than it tells you about Solana specifically. For a grounding on how staking itself works, see our Solana staking guide.

Myth 3: "The Binance Hacker's SOL Dump Broke Solana"

The Binance hack of October 29, in which about $6.3 billion was taken across ten chains, hangs over the whole market, and Solana felt a specific part of it. The hacker stole about 970,500 SOL and, over the following weekend, moved roughly half of it — about 486,970 SOL, worth around $46.4 million — into Bitcoin swaps. Headlines turned that into "the hacker is dumping Solana," and the price action cooperated, with SOL sliding below $100.

Here is the scale check that the headlines skip. About $46 million of selling, spread over a weekend, in a token trading roughly $1.4 billion of daily volume, is not enough on its own to break a $54 billion asset. It added pressure at the worst possible moment — ETF outflows, a Nasdaq correction, and a market already down about 14% from its peak — but it did not create the downtrend. SOL was already sliding through October, and it was already below its 200-day moving average before the hacker's swaps became the story. Blaming one wallet also misses the more durable lesson of the hack for ordinary holders: exchange custody is the risk, not any single chain. If your coins sit on an exchange, a hack elsewhere can still freeze your withdrawals, which is why self-custody basics matter — see what a crypto wallet actually is before moving anything in a panic.

The hacker's trades are still worth watching, because roughly half the stolen SOL has not yet been swapped at the time of writing, and further conversions could add selling on thin weekend liquidity. But that is a watch item, not an explanation. Solana did not fall because one thief sold. It fell because buyers stepped back everywhere at once.

Myth 4: "Solana Is Losing to Ethereum"

This myth survives because people compare the wrong scoreboard. On price, Ethereum has held up better in this sell-off: ETH traded around $2,250–$2,260 on November 3, down only about 1.7–1.9% on the day, while SOL fell more than 3%. On network activity, the scoreboard flips completely. Solana's 2.63 million daily active addresses and 94.65 million daily transactions dwarf Ethereum's 495,808 addresses and 1.88 million transactions on the same day. Solana also outpaces Ethereum in daily activity while lagging it in total value locked in DeFi — a reminder that cheap, fast chains attract volume, while Ethereum still attracts the largest pools of capital.

November 3 snapshot	Solana	Ethereum
Price	About $92	About $2,250
Daily active addresses	2.63 million	495,808
Daily transactions	94.65 million	1.88 million
24-hour move	About -3.3%	About -1.7%
ETF flows this week	Record $71M weekly outflow	$139.7M outflow Monday, 6th red day in a row

Neither chain is "winning" in any absolute sense. Solana wins the activity game; Ethereum wins the capital-preservation game this month. Investors who pick a side based on one column of that table will be surprised by the other column within weeks. The useful question is not which chain is better in general — our full Solana staking guide and beginner guides cover the trade-offs — but which risk you are actually buying: Solana's volatility and execution speed, or Ethereum's deeper liquidity and slower, more expensive base layer. For newcomers still deciding how to buy either one, our beginner's guide to buying crypto covers the mechanics that apply to both.

Myth 5: "Oversold Means It's Time to Buy"

SOL's daily RSI of 27.40 makes it the most oversold major coin tracked on November 3, and oversold readings tempt traders into calling bottoms. History says to slow down. SOL now trades below every major moving average: the 50-day near $103.81, the 100-day near $99.96, and the 200-day near $98.08. Analysts flag about $97.76 as the first resistance to reclaim and about $88.42 as the important downside reference. A daily close back above $98 would be the first technical sign that the downtrend is cracking. Until then, "oversold" describes how far it has fallen, not where it stops.

Two fresh risks also argue against blind dip-buying. Solana's core developers urged validators to take temporary protective measures against an unpatched Linux kernel vulnerability, and a Solflare staking incident — in which a validator operator lost keys and rewards were paused — reminded stakers that yield comes with operator risk, even though the wallet said user funds were safe and missed rewards would be compensated. Neither event broke the chain, but both belong in any honest risk list alongside the price chart. Our recent Should I Buy Solana in November 2026? analysis weighs the same levels from the buyer's side, and it reaches the same caution: the setup is interesting, not proven.

What Actually Decides SOL Next: 3 Scenarios

Forget single-price predictions. Three scenarios, with the triggers that would confirm each, are more honest than any point forecast — and one outside forecast, from Changelly, puts SOL near $94.20 by November 5, which is barely above today's price and underlines how flat near-term expectations are.

Scenario	Trigger	Price path
Bull: ETF flows turn	SOL reclaims $98 (200-day EMA), then $103.81; weekly ETF flows turn positive	Test of $108–$115; Changelly's $128.53 7-day figure becomes plausible only on sustained inflows
Base: range-bound chop	SOL holds $88.42–$92 but fails at $97.76; ETF outflows slow without reversing	Grind between $88 and $98 while network records keep coming
Bear: support breaks	Daily close below $88.42 on heavy volume, or further hacker SOL swaps into a thin weekend	Slide toward $78–$82, the zone flagged in our November buy-side analysis

The macro calendar will likely pick the scenario before any Solana-specific news does. The United States midterm elections conclude on the night of November 3–4, the JOLTS jobs data landed on November 3, and the main jobs report arrives Friday, November 6. Bitcoin, sitting near $76,900 and just above its own 200-day average near $76,450, faces the same gauntlet. If risk appetite returns after the elections, SOL's oversold reading gives it room to bounce hard. If it does not, no transaction record will save it.

Checklist: 6 Things to Verify Before You Touch SOL This Week

• Check the ETF flow print, not the headline: one positive week does not end a four-week outflow streak; look for two consecutive weeks of inflows.
• Watch $98 first, $88 second: a close above the 200-day average changes the trend; a close below $88.42 confirms the breakdown.
• Confirm your staking validator: after the Solflare incident, check who validates your stake and whether rewards are actually landing.
• Separate exchange risk from chain risk: coins on an exchange carry hack and withdrawal-freeze risk that has nothing to do with Solana's technology.
• Size for volatility, not for the record: a chain can set usage records while its token falls another 15%; position size is the risk control.
• Ignore single-day forecasts: a $94.20 short-term projection is noise around a $92 price; the scenario table above is the decision tool.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why is Solana's price falling if its network is setting records?

Because transaction counts measure block-space demand, not investment demand. ETF outflows, the Binance hack fallout, a Nasdaq correction and broad risk aversion removed buyers faster than record usage could replace them. Cheap transactions also generate little fee pressure per trade, so usage records do not mechanically lift the token price.

How bad were Solana ETF outflows?

About $71 million in the week ended October 30, the largest weekly outflow since the funds launched and the fourth straight week of exits. Cumulative inflows fell from about $1.57 billion to $1.469 billion in two weeks. It is a sharp cooling, concentrated in Bitwise's BSOL fund, but not a full institutional exit — the funds still hold about $1.399 billion in net assets.

Is SOL oversold at RSI 27.40?

Technically yes — RSI below 30 is conventionally oversold, and SOL is the most oversold major coin tracked on November 3. But oversold can persist for weeks in a downtrend, and SOL sits below all its major moving averages. Oversold is a condition, not a buy signal; the reclaim of $98 would be the first confirmation.

Did the Binance hacker crash Solana?

No — the hacker added pressure but did not cause the downtrend. About 486,970 stolen SOL (around $46.4 million) was swapped into Bitcoin over one weekend, against roughly $1.4 billion of daily SOL trading volume. SOL was already falling through October on ETF outflows and market-wide selling. About half the stolen SOL remains unswapped, so further conversions are a watch item.

Is Solana beating Ethereum?

On activity, yes by a wide margin: 2.63 million daily active addresses and 94.65 million daily transactions versus Ethereum's 495,808 and 1.88 million on November 3. On capital and price resilience this month, no: Ethereum fell less and holds far more DeFi value locked. The two chains win different games.

What should Solana holders watch next?

Three things: the $98 reclaim versus the $88.42 breakdown level, the next weekly Solana ETF flow print, and the macro gauntlet — midterm results overnight, then Friday's jobs report. Whichever breaks first will likely set SOL's direction into mid-November.

Conclusion: Buy the Network Story, Price the Token Honestly

Solana's October tells a story the market keeps misreading. A chain processing 3.3 billion transactions in a month, with 2.63 million daily users and a second independent validator client above 20% of stake, is not a dying network. A token down to $92, below every major moving average, with record ETF outflows and a hacker still holding stolen supply, is not a safe bargain either. Both statements are true at the same time, and any article that gives you only one of them is selling you something.

The gap between usage and price will close in one of two ways: buyers return and the token catches up with the network, or the network's records prove to be low-value activity and the price was right all along. The $98 and $88.42 levels, the next ETF flow print, and Friday's jobs report will tell us which — faster than any prediction. Until then, the smart position is informed patience: respect the records, respect the downtrend, and let the levels decide.

Sources: TradingNews Solana price forecast (November 2, 2026); Capital Street FX daily crypto report (November 3, 2026); AD HOC NEWS Solana ETF report (November 2, 2026); CoinDesk Bitcoin market report (November 3, 2026); Invezz Bitcoin danger-zone analysis (November 3, 2026). This article is for information only and is not financial advice.