Solana at $89: the $89.73 Trendline That Saved It on November 4 Just Gave Way — 5 Numbers That Decide $104 or $75

Solana is trading at about $89 on Friday morning — and it just slipped below the $89.73 trendline that saved it two days ago. On November 4, SOL bounced off that exact line and rallied to $96.52. On November 6, it dipped to an intraday low of $88.30 and is now fighting to reclaim the level. The line that held twice is now the line that decides everything: reclaim it and $104 is back in play; lose it and $75 comes into view. Here are the five numbers that decide which one happens.

It is not just a Solana story. Bitcoin fell below $76,000 in the same session, the Nasdaq 100 dropped 6.4% into correction territory, and nearly $1 billion in crypto positions were liquidated in 24 hours. But Solana's chart tells a sharper story than Bitcoin's — because while the price is breaking down, the network underneath it just had its strongest month ever.

What Just Happened to Solana?

Solana opened Friday at $95.55, touched $97.10, and then gave it all back. By the morning session SOL was changing hands near $89, down about 6.8% in 24 hours, with an intraday low of $88.30. Trading volume topped $4.4 billion in a day, and the market cap sits near $53–56 billion, keeping SOL ranked seventh.

The move matters because of where it happened. On November 4, Solana found buyers at $89.73 — a rising trendline that has defined the recovery from the summer lows — and bounced 7% to $96.52 within a day. On November 6, the price traded straight through it. A level that holds twice and fails on the third test signals that the buyers who defended it are running out of ammunition.

The trigger was not Solana-specific. U.S. technology stocks led a broad sell-off on Thursday: the Nasdaq 100 fell 6.4% and is now more than 10% below its October 6 record, officially in correction territory. Bitcoin fell 5.5% to about $76,000, its lowest level in seven weeks, and Ethereum dropped 7.4% to around $2,250. About $370 million in leveraged crypto positions were liquidated within a single hour, and the 24-hour total approached $1 billion, according to TradingView's market coverage. Solana, as usual, fell harder than Bitcoin — and recovered less.

If you are new to the network, our complete beginner's guide to Solana explains how SOL works and what makes it different from Ethereum. The short version: Solana is a high-throughput blockchain built for speed, and that speed is exactly what is being tested right now — not by the network, but by the market.

The 5 Numbers That Decide $104 or $75

Number 1: $89.73 — the trendline. This is the level that saved SOL on November 4. Friday's dip to $88.30 broke it intraday. What matters now is the daily close: if SOL closes back above $89.73, the break looks like a fake-out and the bounce thesis survives. If it closes below, technicians will treat the November 4 bounce as a dead-cat bounce, with the next support near $85, then $80.

Number 2: $103.81 — the recovery target. Analysts tracking the November 4 bounce put the upside target at $103.81, the level where the last leg of the October sell-off began. That is roughly 16% above Friday's price — a big move, but not an unreasonable one for SOL, which has moved 7% in a day twice this week. The catch: SOL has to reclaim $96.52 first, the high of the bounce, and then $100, a psychological level that has acted as a magnet all autumn. Until $96.52 is retaken, $103.81 is a hope, not a plan.

Number 3: $71.47 million — the record weekly ETF outflow. U.S. spot Solana ETFs recorded $71.47 million in net outflows in the week of October 26–30, the largest weekly withdrawal since the products launched and the fourth consecutive week of net outflows, according to SoSoValue data cited by CoinStats. October's total outflow reached $143.7 million, also a record. The selling concentrated in the two biggest funds: Bitwise's Solana Staking ETF (BSOL) lost $45.82 million in that week alone, though it still holds $1.12 billion in cumulative net inflows. When the regulated, institutional buyers become net sellers for a month straight, the price rarely finds a floor on its own.

Number 4: 150 milliseconds — the Alpenglow upgrade. On October 21, Solana activated Alpenglow, its biggest consensus upgrade since launch. Transaction finality fell from roughly 12.8 seconds under the old TowerBFT system to about 150 milliseconds — nearly 85 times faster. In the same month, Solana processed 3.3 billion successful non-vote transactions — a monthly record and the sixth in a row — and decentralized exchange volume topped $65 billion. Solana has now led all chains in DEX volume for 15 straight months.

Number 5: 26% — the 30-day drawdown. SOL is down roughly 26% over the past 30 days and about 70% below its all-time high of $293–$296, set on January 19, 2025. At $89, SOL trades at levels last seen in the summer, while the network is processing more transactions than ever. Either the market is right that the ETF selling and the macro storm matter more than the fundamentals — or the fundamentals will eventually matter more than the market.

Bull, Base, Bear: Three Scenarios for SOL

Scenario	Trigger	Price path	Probability
Bull: $104	Daily close back above $89.73; ETF flows turn positive; Nasdaq stabilizes after the jobs report	$96.52 → $100 → $103.81	Lower — needs a macro turn
Base: $90–$97 chop	SOL reclaims $89.73 but stalls under $96.52; ETF flows flat; Bitcoin holds $75,000	Sideways between $89 and $97 for days	Most likely near-term
Bear: $75	Daily close below $89.73; ETF outflows resume; Bitcoin loses $75,000 support	$85 → $80 → $75	Rising if $89.73 fails to hold

The base case is the honest one. Solana has bounced hard from this zone before, but every bounce this autumn has been sold into, and the ETF flow data says institutional demand has not returned yet. The bull case needs two things that have not happened together in weeks: a positive ETF flow day and a calm Nasdaq. The bear case needs only one thing that is already happening — a daily close under $89.73.

SOL vs BTC vs ETH: Who Is Actually Bleeding Most?

Asset	Price (Nov 6)	24h change	30-day change	vs all-time high
Solana (SOL)	~$89	−6.8%	−26%	−70%
Bitcoin (BTC)	~$76,000	−5.5%	−6.6%	−40% (from ~$126K)
Ethereum (ETH)	~$2,250	−7.4%	−18%	−54% (from ~$4,900)

Solana is the worst performer of the three over the past month, and it is not close. Bitcoin is down about 6.6% in a month; Ethereum is down roughly 18%; Solana is down 26%. That ranking tells you something important about how this market works: in a risk-off move, the fastest horse falls the furthest. SOL's high beta — it rises faster than Bitcoin in rallies and falls faster in sell-offs — is a feature in bull markets and a punishment in corrections. Our XRP vs Solana breakdown from earlier this week ranked both tokens on seven numbers while SOL was still at $96.

Bitcoin's relative resilience has a specific cause. As we covered in Bitcoin is not digital gold — it is a leveraged Nasdaq trade, BTC now trades with the tech complex, and the $120 billion crash that hit the market this week was driven by chip stocks and rates, not by anything crypto-specific. Solana simply has more leverage, more speculative positioning, and less institutional ballast than Bitcoin, so the same shock hits it harder. TradingNews' Solana forecast puts the bounce target at $103.81 — but only if the trendline holds.

The ETF Problem: Record Outflows, Then Silence

The most important Solana chart right now is not the price chart. It is the flow chart. U.S. spot Solana ETFs have now posted four consecutive weeks of net outflows, culminating in the record $71.47 million weekly withdrawal at the end of October. October's $143.7 million total was the largest monthly outflow since the funds launched. Through early November, five-session outflows reached $63.4 million.

Then something interesting happened: on November 2 and 3, all seven spot Solana ETFs recorded zero net flows. Not inflows — zero. The selling paused, but the buying did not start. That is the difference between a bottom and a pause. A bottom needs new buyers; a pause just needs sellers to take a breath. As one market report put it, the price is caught between improving network infrastructure and weaker investment demand — and for now, demand is winning.

For perspective, Bitcoin's ETFs tell a similar story at a larger scale. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $1.16 billion in net outflows between October 30 and November 2, with BlackRock's IBIT alone losing $405.3 million on November 2. As we reported in Bitcoin ETFs just flipped, the funds briefly saw $74.6 million of inflows after that exodus, but BlackRock kept selling. Bitfinex's analysis warns that one positive ETF session would not be enough to confirm institutional demand has returned.

One counterweight: Switzerland approved its first Bitcoin ETF for retail investors this week, expanding regulated access in Europe even while U.S. flows contract.

The Other Side of the Trade: Alpenglow and the Network That Will Not Slow Down

Here is the contradiction at the heart of Solana right now. The price is down 26% in a month. The ETFs are bleeding. And the network just posted its best month ever.

Alpenglow, which went live on October 21, cut transaction finality from about 12.8 seconds to roughly 150 milliseconds. For anyone who has waited for a transaction to confirm, that difference is the difference between a network that feels instant and one that feels slow. It is also the kind of upgrade that matters most to the developers and traders who actually use the chain — the same people who generate the DEX volume that has now led all blockchains for 15 consecutive months.

There is also a darker footnote: funds stolen in the $6.3 billion Binance theft have been moving across the Solana network, according to reports this week — a reminder that the same speed and low fees that attract legitimate users also attract illicit flows. Binance has said user funds are safe, set aside $6.34 billion to cover losses, reopened withdrawals on November 1, and published proof of reserves on November 2.

For holders thinking long-term, staking is part of the same calculation. Our Solana staking guide explains how to stake SOL and what yields look like, and our crypto staking explainer compares staking across ETH, SOL, and ADA. Staking does not protect a portfolio from a 26% drawdown — but it changes the math of holding through one.

What Most People Get Wrong About Solana Right Now

"The ETF outflows mean institutions have given up on SOL." Wrong, or at least premature. The outflows are real, but BSOL still holds $1.12 billion in cumulative net inflows, and the selling paused entirely on November 2–3. Institutions de-risk in waves; a pause is not an exit. Watch the flow data, not the headlines.

"Alpenglow should have pushed the price up." Upgrades do not set prices; flows do. Alpenglow makes the network faster, which matters for adoption over quarters, not for the price over days. SOL fell for most of the two weeks after the upgrade went live, because the macro storm and the ETF selling mattered more.

"SOL is down 70% from its high, so it must be cheap." A token can be down 70% and still fall another 30%. Solana's all-time high of roughly $293–$296 was set in January 2025, in a different rate environment. Price relative to an old high is not a valuation — price relative to network usage is. On that measure SOL looks far more interesting at $89 than at $200. But "interesting" is not the same as "bottomed."

"If Bitcoin recovers, Solana recovers faster." Usually true — but only if the recovery is driven by risk appetite returning. If Bitcoin recovers as a flight to the relative safety of the largest asset, Solana can lag badly. In the November 4 bounce SOL rallied 7% off its trendline; in the November 6 sell-off it gave the whole bounce back and more. High beta cuts both ways.

What to Watch Next: A Checklist for SOL Holders

If you hold SOL or are thinking about buying the dip, these are the five things that matter in the next few days — in order:

• The daily close vs $89.73. A close above the trendline keeps the bounce thesis alive; a close below it opens $85, then $80.
• The U.S. jobs report, Friday 8:30 a.m. ET. The October employment report lands hours after the $2.65 billion Bitcoin options expiry at 08:00 UTC (24,912 calls vs 8,223 puts, max pain $79,000). A soft jobs number could revive rate-cut hopes and lift everything; a hot number does the opposite. Initial jobless claims already fell to 189,000, against 196,000 expected — a 57-year low.
• ETF flows next week. One positive flow day would not confirm that institutional demand has returned, but a fifth straight week of heavy outflows would confirm the opposite. Watch BSOL and GSOL specifically.
• Bitcoin at $75,000. Bitfinex puts the short-term holder cost basis near $75,839, and a daily settlement below it would weaken the whole market's structure. If Bitcoin loses $75,000, Solana's $75 bear-case target stops looking like a stretch. Our Bitcoin price breakdown from Thursday has the full level map.
• DEX volume and transaction counts. If November activity holds near October's records while the price falls, that divergence is the story. If activity rolls over too, the bear case strengthens.

For anyone considering a first purchase, our beginner's guide to buying Solana walks through the options step by step, and our best crypto wallets guide covers where to hold SOL safely. Our ranking of the best altcoins to buy in November puts SOL in context against the rest of the market.

FAQs

Why is Solana down today?

Solana is down about 6.8% in 24 hours, trading near $89, because a broad sell-off in U.S. technology stocks dragged the whole crypto market lower. The Nasdaq 100 fell 6.4% into correction territory, Bitcoin dropped below $76,000, and nearly $1 billion in leveraged positions were liquidated. SOL fell harder than Bitcoin because it carries more leverage and speculative positioning — and because it was already under pressure from four straight weeks of record ETF outflows.

What is the $89.73 level for Solana?

$89.73 is a rising trendline that acted as support on November 4, when SOL bounced 7% to $96.52 after touching it. On November 6 the price dipped to $88.30, breaking the line intraday. Whether SOL closes the day above or below $89.73 is now the key technical test: holding it keeps the recovery alive, losing it opens the way toward $85 and $80.

Will Solana reach $104?

The $103.81 level is the upside target implied by the November 4 bounce. Reaching it requires SOL to first reclaim $96.52 and then $100, plus a calmer Nasdaq and a turn in ETF flows. It is achievable — SOL has moved 7% in a day twice this week — but it is not the base case while outflows continue and the daily close sits under $89.73.

Why are Solana ETFs seeing outflows?

U.S. spot Solana ETFs recorded a record $71.47 million in net outflows in the week of October 26–30 and $143.7 million for October as a whole. The selling reflects the same risk-off mood hitting all crypto: the Binance theft, leveraged liquidations, a falling Nasdaq, and uncertainty over U.S. crypto legislation after the midterms. Flows paused at zero on November 2–3, but no new buying has appeared yet.

What is the Alpenglow upgrade?

Alpenglow is Solana's biggest consensus upgrade since launch, activated on October 21, 2026. It replaced the TowerBFT consensus system and cut transaction finality from roughly 12.8 seconds to about 150 milliseconds. In October, the network processed a record 3.3 billion successful non-vote transactions and more than $65 billion in DEX volume — its 15th straight month leading all chains.

Is Solana a good buy at $89?

At $89, SOL is down about 26% in a month and 70% below its January 2025 all-time high near $293–$296, while the network is posting record transaction counts and DEX volume. That combination is either a buying opportunity or a value trap, and the difference will be decided by whether $89.73 holds as support and whether ETF flows turn. This article is not investment advice — but if you buy, do it with a plan for both scenarios: a reclaim of $96.52 that confirms the bounce, and a loss of $85 that says the downtrend is still in charge.

Conclusion

Solana at $89 is caught between two truths. The first is that the price is breaking down: the $89.73 trendline that saved it on November 4 gave way on November 6, ETF outflows just set records, and the token is down 26% in a month. The second is that the network has never been stronger: finality is down to 150 milliseconds, October set transaction records, and DEX volume has led every chain for 15 months.

One of those truths will win. If the daily close reclaims $89.73 and ETF flows stabilize, the bull case toward $104 opens up. If the close fails and Bitcoin loses $75,000, the bear case toward $75 takes over, and the network's strength will have to wait for a better macro moment. The five numbers in this article — $89.73, $103.81, $71.47 million, 150 milliseconds, and 26% — are the scoreboard. Watch them, not the noise.

Sources: TradingNews; CoinStats; OKX; TradingView; Crypto-Economy/Bitfinex; Finnhub. Prices as of the morning of November 6, 2026. This article is for information only and is not investment advice.