Ethereum Staking Hits Record 43.8 Million ETH: Can a Supply Squeeze Push ETH Price Higher?

Ethereum has quietly reached a milestone that could matter more for its price than any headline of the past month: a record 43.8 million ETH — 35.9% of the entire supply — is now locked in staking, according to data reported by Bitwise. That is more ether sitting out of the market than at any point in history, and it is growing almost every day. With ETH trading near $2,450 on October 22 and the Glamsterdam upgrade hitting its next testnet milestone on October 26, the question investors are asking is simple: can this supply squeeze push ETH price higher?

This article breaks down the numbers behind the record, why locked supply is a genuine bullish force, what could offset it, and the price levels that matter next. If you are deciding whether ETH fits your portfolio right now, you may also want to read our honest guide on buying Ethereum in 2026 and our deep dive on whether Ethereum is a good investment this year.

The Record: 43.8 Million ETH Locked in Staking

Staked ether has hit an all-time high of 43.8 million coins, representing 35.9% of the circulating supply. To put that in perspective: more than one in every three ether that exists is currently deposited with validators, earning rewards and — crucially — not available to be sold on the open market.

Staked coins cannot be dumped in a panic sell. Exiting staking requires an unstaking queue, and the process takes days to weeks depending on demand. That structural illiquidity acts as a shock absorber during selloffs and as an amplifier during rallies, because price moves are driven by a smaller pool of tradable supply.

The trend is accelerating, not slowing. Corporate treasuries are now a major engine of the growth. BitMine, the largest corporate ether holder, staked another 159,728 ETH in recent days, bringing its total staked position to 5.23 million ETH. When multi-billion-dollar treasuries park coins in validators, those coins are effectively removed from circulating supply for years. Our analysis of BitMine approaching 5% of all Ethereum explains why this institutional lockup changes the supply math for everyone else.

Why a Supply Squeeze Matters for Price

Basic market mechanics say that when demand stays flat and available supply shrinks, prices tend to rise. Three forces are tightening ETH's liquid supply right now:

• Record staking participation: 43.8 million ETH locked means the effective free float is shrinking even as total issuance stays roughly flat. Coins locked in staking reduce selling pressure during drawdowns and magnify moves on the way up.
• Treasury accumulation with intent to stake: Companies like BitMine are not day-trading — they are buying to stake and hold. Their disclosed multi-million-coin treasuries represent supply that will not return to exchanges for the foreseeable future.
• ETF structure evolution: While spot ETH ETFs have struggled, the market is watching staking-enabled ETF products that could let fund investors earn yield too. VanEck recently withdrew its Lido stETH ETF, but the broader push toward staking in regulated products continues, which would pull more coins into long-term lockup.

This is the same dynamic that has historically preceded major ETH rallies: declining exchange balances combined with rising staking participation. The difference this time is the scale — 35.9% of supply is unprecedented.

The Counterweight: ETF Outflows Are Still Bleeding

No honest analysis can ignore the other side of the ledger. U.S. spot Ether ETFs just recorded one of their worst stretches ever. From October 12 through October 16, the funds saw $320.1 million in net outflows, with BlackRock's ETHA accounting for nearly $299 million of the redemptions. October is shaping up as the worst month on record for spot ETH ETFs, with nearly $1 billion in outflows at one point.

That institutional selling is the main reason ETH is trading near $2,450 instead of testing $3,000. It is also why the price reaction to positive news has been muted: every rally into resistance meets ETF-related supply. We covered this in detail in our report on Ethereum ETFs' worst month ever and the institutional rotation from ETH to BTC.

The encouraging sign: the bleeding slowed this week. After six straight outflow days, the funds posted a modest $14.96 million inflow on October 21, suggesting the worst of the redemption wave may be passing. If ETF flows turn sustainably positive, the supply squeeze from staking would have a much cleaner runway.

The Catalyst: Glamsterdam Heads to Hoodi on October 26

Fundamentals are also moving. The Ethereum Foundation has scheduled the Glamsterdam upgrade to activate on the Hoodi testnet on October 26 at 17:42:48 UTC, with the network's block gas limit rising to 200 million — more than triple the mainnet's current level.

Glamsterdam combines the Amsterdam execution-layer upgrade with the Gloas consensus-layer upgrade. Its headline features are enshrined proposer-builder separation (EIP-7732) and block-level access lists (EIP-7928), which allow transactions to be validated in parallel. The package is designed to deliver a large increase in throughput, with some estimates targeting a 78% reduction in gas fees. You can read the full technical breakdown in our Glamsterdam upgrade explainer.

A few important caveats. First, this is a testnet activation, not mainnet — no mainnet date has been set. Second, the market has a habit of selling upgrade news: Sepolia's October 6 activation saw a muted-to-negative price reaction, a pattern familiar from past Ethereum upgrades where anticipation gets traded more than the event. Third, cheaper gas reduces ETH burned per transaction, which modestly increases net issuance — circulating supply has edged up to about 122.1 million coins.

Still, a clean Hoodi run on October 26 would clear the path for developers to set a mainnet date, and mainnet dates are what historically move ETH. For a price-focused take, see our Ethereum November price prediction, which maps the upgrade timeline against key levels.

ETH Price Today: The Levels That Matter

As of October 22, ETH trades near $2,448, up about 2.7% on the day, while Bitcoin holds above $82,500 after a failed run at $85,000 and the broader crypto market sits near $2.91 trillion. The Fear and Greed Index reads 68 (Greed), up from 53 a week ago.

From a technical standpoint, the battle lines are clear:

• Resistance at $2,500: ETH has struggled to hold above this level. A decisive daily close above $2,500 would open the door to $2,800, the next major supply zone.
• Support near $2,400–$2,420: This zone has absorbed recent selling. Holding it keeps the short-term structure constructive.
• Downside target near $2,200: If support breaks and ETF outflows resume, analysts see $2,200 as the next meaningful level.

The supply squeeze argument favors patience: with 35.9% of ETH staked, each incremental buyer has outsized impact on a shrinking free float. But price needs a demand catalyst — renewed ETF inflows, a clean Hoodi activation, or a Bitcoin breakout — to turn the structural tailwind into an actual move. If you are considering participating in the staking trend yourself, our complete guide to staking Ethereum in 2026 walks through methods, rewards and risks, and this analysis asks whether ETH staking is still worth it at current yields.

What Could Go Wrong: The Risks

ETF outflows resume. One green day does not end the trend. If institutions keep redeeming, the resulting selling can overwhelm the staking supply squeeze.

Macro headwinds. Bitcoin's failed $85,000 attempt was driven by renewed AI-trade worries hitting Nasdaq futures — crypto still trades with risk assets. A proper equity selloff would drag ETH down regardless of staking data.

The upgrade disappoints. If Hoodi activation on October 26 hits technical issues, the mainnet timeline slips and the catalyst narrative weakens.

Staking yield compression. As more ETH stakes, per-validator rewards decline. If yields fall far enough, marginal stakers could unstake, reversing part of the supply lockup.

FAQs

How much ETH is currently staked?

A record 43.8 million ETH is staked as of October 2026, representing 35.9% of the circulating supply, according to data reported by Bitwise. It is the highest staking participation in Ethereum's history.

Does staking ETH reduce the price?

Staking itself does not directly set the price, but it reduces the liquid supply available for trading. With more than a third of all ETH locked, rallies can be amplified because fewer coins are available to meet buying demand — and selloffs can be cushioned for the same reason.

Why is ETH price not rising if staking is at a record?

Record staking is being offset by heavy spot ETH ETF outflows — nearly $1 billion left the funds in October. Institutional redemptions create selling pressure that has so far neutralized the bullish supply-squeeze effect. Price likely needs ETF flows to turn positive before the staking tailwind shows up in the chart.

What is the Glamsterdam upgrade and when does it happen?

Glamsterdam is Ethereum's next major network upgrade, combining execution-layer (Amsterdam) and consensus-layer (Gloas) changes including proposer-builder separation and block-level access lists. It activated on the Sepolia testnet on October 6 and is scheduled for the Hoodi testnet on October 26, 2026, at 17:42:48 UTC. No mainnet date has been announced.

Can Ethereum reach $3,000 in 2026?

It is possible but requires several things to align: a decisive break above $2,500, sustained positive ETF flows, a clean Glamsterdam testnet run followed by a mainnet date, and a cooperative macro environment. The record staking supply squeeze improves the odds, but it is not sufficient on its own.

Is staking ETH better than holding ETH in an ETF?

They serve different purposes. Direct staking earns protocol rewards (currently a few percent annually) but requires locking coins and managing validator or liquid-staking risk. Spot ETH ETFs offer simple price exposure with no lockup but no yield either. Some investors split exposure between both. Our staking rewards analysis compares the math in detail.

Historical Parallels: The Last Time Staking Surged Like This

We have seen this movie before, though never at this scale. The fastest prior growth phase in ETH staking came in early 2025, when staked supply climbed from roughly 28% to over 33% in a matter of months while exchange balances fell to multi-year lows. What followed was one of ETH's strongest quarterly performances of the cycle: with sellers exhausted and spot ETF demand returning, ETH ripped from the low-$2,000s toward $4,800 in a matter of weeks, outperforming Bitcoin by a wide margin during that window.

The mechanics were identical to today. Staking absorbed the marginal seller. Liquid staking tokens like stETH turned staked ETH into DeFi collateral rather than dead weight, which meant the locked supply still worked inside the ecosystem without hitting spot markets. And when demand finally arrived — via ETF inflows and a Bitcoin-led breakout — the price had to travel much further to find sellers, because there simply were not many left.

The current setup is arguably stronger. Staking participation is higher in absolute terms (43.8 million versus roughly 40 million at the 2025 peak), corporate treasuries are staking programmatically rather than speculatively, and restaking protocols have added another layer of stickiness by putting withdrawal queues behind additional lock periods. The one missing ingredient versus 2025 is the demand side: last time, ETF flows were already positive when staking peaked. This time, they are not — yet. That makes the October 21 inflow print worth watching as closely as the staking number itself.

How to Position Around the Supply Squeeze

None of this is financial advice, but there is a rational way to think about positioning when supply is tightening and catalysts are pending. First, define your time horizon. The supply squeeze is a slow-burn structural force, not a 48-hour trade — it rewards holders and punishes those trying to time every $100 swing between $2,400 and $2,500.

Second, watch the two dashboards that will decide the next move: daily spot ETH ETF flows (Farside Investors publishes them every trading day) and the Glamsterdam testnet status on October 26. Positive flow prints plus a clean Hoodi activation is the combination that would validate the bullish thesis. Either one failing — renewed outflows or a delayed upgrade — keeps ETH in its range.

Third, if you want exposure to the squeeze itself rather than just the price, staking remains the direct route: you earn yield while your coins join the locked 35.9%, compounding the very dynamic this article describes. Our complete ETH staking guide covers the methods and the real risks, from slashing to liquidity lockup, so you can decide whether the yield is worth the commitment. And if you are weighing ETH against the broader market, our buy-Ethereum decision guide puts the staking thesis in full portfolio context.

Sources and Further Reading

This article's data comes from primary and reputable market sources: the Ethereum Foundation blog for the official Glamsterdam activation schedule, Farside Investors for daily U.S. spot ETH ETF flow data, CoinGecko for live ETH price and market-cap data, and CoinCentral's October 22 market report for the record staking figures and BitMine data. Wu Blockchain's upgrade coverage confirmed the Hoodi epoch and gas-limit details.

Conclusion

Ethereum's record 43.8 million staked coins are the strongest structural bullish signal ETH has produced all year. More than a third of supply is now locked away from the market, corporate treasuries are staking millions more, and the Glamsterdam upgrade is one successful testnet run away from a mainnet date. That is a genuine supply squeeze in the making.

But structure is not price. Until spot ETF outflows stop and demand returns, ETH is likely to keep grinding between $2,400 support and $2,500 resistance. The trade to watch is the inflection: the moment ETF flows turn positive against a backdrop of record staking, the thin free float could make any rally violent to the upside. Keep an eye on October 26 — a clean Hoodi activation might be exactly the catalyst that starts it.