Ethereum Price: ETH Jumped 6.4% to $2,421 and Outran Bitcoin After the Midterms — 3 Levels That Decide $2,548 or $2,226 Before Friday's Jobs Report

Ethereum just outran Bitcoin almost two-to-one. ETH jumped 6.4% on Wednesday, November 4, 2026, reclaiming $2,421 for the first time since October 23, while Bitcoin managed a 3.6% gain to just over $80,300 over the same stretch. The move liquidated $241 million in ETH positions, pushed the ETH/BTC ratio up 2.2% in a single day, and set up a Friday jobs report that will decide whether this is the start of a real rotation — or just a one-day short squeeze.

If you hold ETH, the next 48 hours matter more than the last 48 did. Ethereum now sits between two lines that have capped every recovery attempt for a month: the 50-day average near $2,411 underneath it, and resistance at $2,548 above it. Hold the first and the path to $2,548 — and then $2,800 — opens up. Lose it, and the overnight low of $2,226 comes straight back into play. This article breaks down exactly what happened on November 4, why Ether beat Bitcoin, the three price levels that decide the next move, and what Friday's US jobs report changes for both coins.

What Actually Happened on November 4

The day started ugly and ended euphoric — a pattern that has defined crypto trading all week. Overnight, as the first results of the US midterm elections came in, Ether slipped to around $2,245 at 3 a.m. UTC, with CoinGecko recording a 24-hour low of $2,226. Bitcoin fell harder in percentage terms on the night, briefly touching about $75,600 as a Democratic sweep of Congress became likely, according to CoinDesk.

The real jump came with the Wall Street open. Between 1 p.m. and 4 p.m. UTC, Ether climbed from just over $2,310 to above $2,420 — an almost 8% recovery from the overnight low inside twelve hours. By the early evening, the Motley Fool's market snapshot put Ethereum at $2,421.50, up 6.58% on the day, against Bitcoin at $80,156, up 3.64%, and Solana at $94.94, up 2.19%. FXStreet's forecast desk recorded a similar print: ETH at $2,430, up 6% on Wednesday, its first close above $2,400 since October 23.

The derivatives market tells the same story with bigger numbers. Per Coinglass data cited by FXStreet, more than $241 million in ETH futures positions were liquidated over 24 hours, including $133.75 million in short liquidations — forced buying from traders who had bet against the rally. TradingView's coverage put the two-hour liquidation burst alone at roughly $236 million, with shorts accounting for 55.9% of it. When shorts are forced to buy back, rallies accelerate: that squeeze is a large part of why ETH moved nearly twice as fast as BTC.

Context matters, though. CoinStats' seven-day figure for ETH was a gain of just 3.9% even after the jump, and over 30 days Ether was still down about 10.5%. One strong day does not erase a month-long downtrend — it only puts ETH back at the top of the range it has been trapped in since early October.

Why Ethereum Beat Bitcoin This Time

There is no single documented catalyst that explains Ether's lead, and honest coverage should say so. CoinDesk reported no specific ETH-only news driving the move beyond the general market recovery. But four measurable forces stacked in ETH's favor at once:

• Shorts were heavier in ETH than in BTC: ETH open interest rose 4.2% against a 2.7% price gain, while BTC open interest rose only 1.6% against a 2.1% gain, per CoinDesk's derivatives data. New money came into ETH positions faster — and with funding positive on both coins, longs were paying shorts, a setup that punishes crowded short bets when price turns.
• The ETH/BTC ratio finally moved: the ratio rose 2.2% on the day to 0.0302, according to CoinGecko. That means one Ether bought 2.2% more Bitcoin than it did the day before. Ratio moves of this size are how traders measure rotation: capital shifting from BTC into ETH, rather than new money entering crypto as a whole.
• DeFi led the whole market: the CoinDesk DeFi Select Index advanced about 5% on the day, beating the broader CoinDesk 80 Index's 2.3% gain. DeFi tokens live on Ethereum's rails, so strength there feeds directly back into ETH demand — a dynamic our recent coverage of the DeFi-led rebound tracked in detail.
• The midterm fog lifted for risk assets generally: S&P 500 futures first fell to 7,490 — their lowest since July 31 — then recovered to 7,690 as results firmed up, per Cointelegraph. CoinShares' James Butterfill argued that real yields, dollar liquidity and ETF inflows mattered more for crypto than the election itself. Either way, once the political uncertainty premium came out of stocks, it came out of crypto too, and the most beaten-down large asset bounced hardest.

There is also a longer-term engineering story bubbling under the price action. On November 3, Ethereum Foundation researcher Justin Drake announced that leanVM — a key piece of Ethereum's quantum-resistance roadmap — had reached end-to-end formal verification. It is a years-ahead story, not a days-ahead one, but it landed the same week as our piece on Ethereum's December 2028 quantum deadline, and it gives long-term holders a fundamental reason to pay attention to ETH specifically rather than crypto generally.

The 3 Levels That Decide $2,548 or $2,226

Forget round numbers for a moment. The levels that matter are the ones traders actually defended or attacked this week, because those are where real buy and sell orders cluster:

Level	What it is	Why it matters
$2,226	Overnight low, November 4	The election-night panic low. Losing it means the whole rebound failed.
$2,351	20-day average	Short-term trend line. ETH closed above it on November 4 for the first time in weeks.
$2,411	50-day EMA + horizontal support	The line FXStreet flags as the must-hold level. A daily close below it flips the setup bearish again.
$2,473 – $2,506	Resistance cluster / 50-day average zone	Where sellers capped the October recovery attempts. Different data providers place the 50-day average between $2,411 and $2,506 — treat the whole band as one wall.
$2,548	Next upside target	FXStreet's breakout target if $2,411 holds. Clearing it opens the path toward $2,800.

The honest read: ETH broke above a descending trendline stretching back to October 2, and it now trades above all its key short-term exponential moving averages. But the 30-day picture is still negative, and the $2,473–$2,506 band has rejected price before. That is why the next two sessions — not the last one — decide the trade.

Bull, Base and Bear: 3 Scenarios Before the Weekend

Scenario	Trigger	Price path	Probability read
Bull: rotation extends	Friday jobs report comes in soft; ETH holds $2,411 on a daily close	$2,548, then $2,800 as the next major resistance	The momentum case — needs both the level and the macro data to cooperate
Base: range holds	Jobs data lands near expectations; ETH chops between $2,351 and $2,506	Sideways week, ETH/BTC ratio drifts rather than trends	The most common outcome after a squeeze day: the market digests
Bear: squeeze unwinds	Jobs report runs hot; ETH closes back below $2,411, then $2,351	$2,226 overnight low retested, then the 200-day average near $2,158	The risk case — a hot jobs print would revive the "higher for longer" trade that hurt crypto in October

These are scenarios, not predictions. The base case deserves the most weight precisely because squeeze days like November 4 usually need a digestion period — and because ETH is still down 10.5% over 30 days, the burden of proof sits with the bulls, not the bears.

Why Friday's Jobs Report Is the Real Test

CoinDesk's market desk put it plainly: traders now look to Friday's US jobs report. The reason is mechanical. A soft report supports the case for easier monetary policy, which has historically lifted risk assets including crypto. A hot report does the opposite — it strengthens the dollar, pushes yields up, and punishes leveraged long positions, exactly the positions that piled into ETH on Wednesday.

There is already a trap set. As our Friday jobs report preview noted, ADP reported just 86,000 private hires — a weak number that has traders positioned for a soft official print. If the official data surprises to the upside, the unwind could be fast, and the first longs to get flushed are usually the ones who chased a squeeze. That is the single biggest risk to the ETH rebound story, and it arrives within 48 hours of the rally itself.

Watch the sequence, not just the headline: the jobs number lands, then bond yields move, then crypto follows within minutes. If ETH is still above $2,411 an hour after the release, the bull case survives its first real test. If it breaks $2,351 on heavy volume, the squeeze is unwinding and the $2,226 low is back in play.

What Most People Get Wrong About This Rally

Myth: "Ethereum is leading a new altcoin season." Reality: the altcoin season index sat at just 37 earlier this week, with Bitcoin dominance near 60%. One day of ETH outperformance is rotation within a Bitcoin-dominated market, not a regime change. Alt season needs weeks of sustained ETH/BTC gains, not one 2.2% ratio pop.

Myth: "The midterms caused the rally." Reality: Bitcoin first fell on the results, then recovered once uncertainty cleared. Elections removed a headwind; they did not create a tailwind. CoinShares' Butterfill is right that yields, liquidity and ETF flows carry more weight — and those forces can reverse just as fast.

Myth: "Liquidations mean the move is over." Reality: $241 million in ETH liquidations is fuel, not an ending. Short squeezes end when there are no more shorts left to squeeze — and with funding still positive, new shorts are already rebuilding. The question is whether spot buyers replace the forced buyers, and Friday's data will help answer it.

Myth: "ETH at $2,421 means the October crash is over." Reality: ETH is still down about 10.5% over 30 days and sits below the $2,506 average that capped October's recovery. Reclaiming $2,400 is a step, not a verdict — as our earlier piece on Ethereum reclaiming $2,300 while ETF buyers stayed billions underwater showed, each reclaimed level has so far just set up the next test.

Checklist: What ETH Holders Should Do Before Friday

• Check your liquidation distance if you use leverage: a retest of $2,351 is only about 3% below current prices, and $2,226 is roughly 8% below. Leveraged longs opened during the squeeze sit dangerously close to both levels.
• Decide your level in advance, not during the jobs print: write down whether $2,411 or $2,351 is your line in the sand, and what you will do if it breaks. Decisions made in a volatile hour are usually the worst ones.
• Separate a trade from an investment: if you are holding ETH for the long term, the staking and network fundamentals matter more than one jobs report — see our guides on what Ethereum actually is and how to stake Ethereum in 2026. If you are trading the bounce, treat it as a trade, with an exit.
• Watch the ETH/BTC ratio, not just the dollar price: if ETH rises but the ratio falls, Bitcoin is leading again and the rotation story is dead. The ratio at 0.0302 is your baseline.
• Do not chase green candles with borrowed money: the $241 million in liquidations on Wednesday included plenty of traders who bought the top of previous bounces. Spot buying survives volatility; leveraged chasing often does not.

The Bigger Picture: Washington Rewrites the Rules While Markets Bounce

It is easy to miss the policy story while watching charts, but it may matter more by January. CoinDesk reported on November 4 that tokenization and stablecoin efforts may weather the Democrats' midterm sweep better than the rest of crypto, because both can proceed under existing law. The GENIUS Act — the federal stablecoin framework passed with bipartisan support — takes effect on January 18, 2027, just fifteen days after the new Congress is seated, giving issuers a statute to work from regardless of who controls the committees.

That matters for ETH holders directly. Tokenized securities and stablecoin payments run overwhelmingly on Ethereum and its layer-2 networks, so a policy environment where those two use cases keep advancing — even as the broader CLARITY Act market-structure bill faces a tougher path — is structurally supportive for ETH demand over months, even if it does nothing for Friday's price. The SEC and CFTC can keep writing crypto rules, lawyers told CoinDesk, but their durability is now the open question: guidance can be reversed by a future administration, and Democratic oversight plus new commissioners could slow efforts to finalize rules before the current presidential term ends.

In other words: the short-term story is the jobs report and the $2,411 level. The medium-term story is whether tokenization and stablecoins — the two crypto use cases with actual laws behind them — keep growing on Ethereum's rails while Congress argues about everything else. Both stories point the same way for now, but only the first one moves prices this week.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why did Ethereum rise faster than Bitcoin on November 4?

Ether gained about 6.4% to $2,421 while Bitcoin gained about 3.6% to $80,300. The gap came mostly from positioning: ETH had heavier crowded shorts, so $241 million in liquidations — $133.75 million of them shorts — forced buying that accelerated the move. DeFi tokens, which run on Ethereum, also led the market with a roughly 5% index gain, and the ETH/BTC ratio rose 2.2% to 0.0302.

Is $2,411 really the key level for ETH?

Yes, as the near-term line in the sand. FXStreet's technical outlook flags the 50-day EMA at $2,411 as the level ETH must hold on a daily close to keep the breakout intact, with $2,548 as the next resistance target. A close back below $2,411 — and then $2,351, the 20-day average — would signal the squeeze is unwinding.

Could ETH reach $2,800 next?

It is the next major resistance zone cited by TradingView's coverage, but only if ETH first clears $2,548 and holds $2,411 through Friday's jobs report. That is a conditional path, not a forecast: two resistance bands stand in the way, and a hot jobs print could reverse the move before either is tested.

What does Friday's jobs report have to do with Ethereum?

Jobs data moves expectations for interest rates, which move the dollar and bond yields, which move risk assets including crypto. A soft report supports the rally; a hot report revives the "higher for longer" trade that pressured crypto through October. ADP's weak 86,000-hire print has traders positioned for softness, which raises the risk of a sharp unwind if the official number surprises higher.

Is this the start of altcoin season?

Not by the numbers. The altcoin season index was at 37 earlier this week with Bitcoin dominance near 60% — firmly Bitcoin-season territory. One day of ETH outperformance is a rotation signal to watch, not a season change. Sustained ETH/BTC ratio gains over weeks would be needed to make that call.

Should beginners buy ETH after a 6.4% jump?

Chasing a squeeze day is one of the riskiest entries: $241 million in liquidations shows how many traders were already caught on the wrong side that day. Beginners are better served understanding the asset first — our beginner's guide to buying Ethereum covers exchanges, fees and custody — and deciding an entry level in advance rather than buying a green candle.

Conclusion

November 4 gave Ethereum holders something they have not had in a month: a clean break above $2,400, a 2.2% jump in the ETH/BTC ratio, and a $241 million short squeeze that proved sellers were overextended. But it also gave them a deadline. Friday's jobs report arrives with ETH parked between $2,411 support and $2,548 resistance, with ADP's weak 86,000 print setting a trap for anyone positioned only one way.

The smart way to play it is boring: watch $2,411 on a daily close, watch the ETH/BTC ratio at 0.0302, and let the jobs data — not the excitement of a 6.4% day — decide whether this rotation has legs. If both hold into the weekend, $2,548 and then $2,800 come into view, and the conversation shifts from "dead-cat bounce" to "trend change." If they fail, $2,226 is waiting, and the October range reasserts itself. Either way, the next 48 hours will tell us more than the last 48 did — and that, for ETH traders, is exactly why this week matters.

Sources: Motley Fool market coverage, November 4, 2026; FXStreet Ethereum price forecast, November 4, 2026; CoinDesk market and policy coverage, November 4, 2026; CoinStats, November 4, 2026; TradingView News, November 4, 2026; Coinglass liquidation data via FXStreet and TradingView. Prices are snapshots from November 4 and move fast — check live quotes before trading. This article is for information only, not financial advice.