Ethereum Just Beat Bitcoin Again While Its ETFs Dumped $431M — 5 Numbers That Explain the Split

Ethereum just outperformed Bitcoin while its own Wall Street funds dumped $431.4 million in five days — and at the same time, a record 43.8 million ETH was locked away in staking, never to touch an exchange order book. That contradiction is the whole story of ETH right now: institutions are selling the fund, long-term holders are locking the coin, and short sellers are piling in at the fastest pace since June. On Sunday, November 1, ETH traded near $2,270, up about 1.1% on the day, while Bitcoin gained roughly 0.7% to near $77,960 — and the ETH/BTC ratio rose 0.79% to 0.02921, the first clear sign in weeks that Ether is beating Bitcoin rather than just following it.

So which signal should you believe — the ETF exodus, the staking record, or the price? All three, because they describe three different groups of investors doing three different things at the same time. This article breaks down the five numbers that explain the split, what most people get wrong about ETF outflows, and the three price levels that will decide whether this is the start of an Ethereum comeback or just a bounce inside a downtrend.

The split in one table: ETH vs BTC this week

Start with the scoreboard. Over the seven days to November 1, Bitcoin and Ether both fell about 3.1% — but the paths they took to get there, and what happened underneath the price, could hardly be more different. Bitcoin's story was dominated by the $6.3 billion Binance breach and a $643 million single-day ETF outflow on Friday, October 30. Ethereum's story was dominated by a slow, grinding institutional exit that started days before the hack — and by a staking milestone that kept growing right through it.

The table makes the split visible. Ethereum is the weaker asset over 30 days — down nearly 18% against Bitcoin's 10% — yet it is the one outperforming on the day and on the ETH/BTC ratio. That is what a turning point looks like in its earliest, least reliable stage: not a roaring comeback, but a small relative-strength print that appears while the headlines still look terrible.

Number 1: $431.4 million left Ethereum ETFs in five sessions

United States spot Ethereum ETFs recorded net outflows on every trading day from Monday, October 26 through Friday, October 30, according to Farside Investors data. The daily sequence tells its own story: $88.6 million left on October 26, $60.2 million on October 27, $21.4 million on October 28, $105.5 million on October 29, and $155.7 million on October 30 — the largest single day of the run, and roughly 48% bigger than the day before. The five-session total of $431.4 million was nearly double the $220.7 million withdrawn in the previous five sessions, so the selling was not just continuing, it was accelerating into month-end.

BlackRock's iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA) led Friday's redemptions with about $76.6 million, followed by Grayscale's Ethereum Mini Trust at $34.1 million and Grayscale's ETHE at $21.5 million. Several smaller funds recorded zero net flow on the day — this was concentrated selling in the biggest funds, the pattern you see when large allocators rebalance, not when retail panics.

One correction matters here, because a wrong number went viral during the week. Some coverage claimed Ethereum ETFs had suffered 23 straight days of outflows. Farside's daily table contradicts that: October 23 actually recorded a $4.4 million net inflow, which breaks any 23-session streak. The real streak is five sessions — bad enough without exaggeration, and a useful reminder to check the daily table rather than the headline. Cumulative net inflows since launch still stood at about $12.29–12.32 billion after October 30, down from $13.89 billion at the end of September, so the funds are giving back a slice of their gains, not emptying out.

Number 2: $1.61 billion left in October — the worst month ever for ETH funds

Zoom out and the five-day run looks like the climax of a much worse month. Spot Ether ETFs recorded roughly $1.61 billion in net outflows across October, according to SoSoValue data — the largest monthly withdrawal on record, beating the previous record of about $1.42 billion. The funds managed only three days of net buying all month: $24.84 million on October 13, $14.96 million on October 21, and $4.35 million on October 23. Everything else was red.

That context reframes Sunday's bounce. ETH ended October down about 16%, closing near $2,250 after touching a two-month low of $2,150 on October 30. A 1% Sunday bounce after a 16% monthly fall is not a reversal by itself — it is the market catching its breath on a weekend with no US cash session and no economic data.

Number 3: 43.8 million ETH staked — 35.9% of all supply is locked up

Here is the contradiction at the heart of this article. While ETF investors withdrew $431.4 million in a week, Ethereum's staking layer hit a record: about 43.8 million ETH locked in the consensus layer, roughly 35.9% of circulating supply, supported by approximately 814,000 active validators, according to CryptoQuant data cited by crypto.news. Bitwise's third-quarter staking report put the same milestone at the end of September, after six consecutive quarters of net inflows — 1.99 million ETH of net inflows in the third quarter alone, and 7.96 million ETH added across the first nine months of 2026.

Staked ETH is not available for trading until its owner withdraws it through Ethereum's staking process, which takes time. Every million ETH that moves into staking therefore tightens the freely tradable supply, even as ETF flows suggest demand is falling.

But the staking story has a catch, and it explains part of the ETF selling. The average gross annualized staking yield fell to 2.63% in the third quarter, down from 2.81% in the second, according to Bitwise — and 96.3% of that yield now comes from newly issued ETH rather than transaction fees, because average transaction costs fell to $0.45 from $1.35 a year earlier. With the Federal Reserve holding rates at 3.75%–4.00% and 13-week Treasury bills paying about 4.2%, a 2.63% staking yield no longer beats cash for a dollar-based institution. That 157-basis-point gap is arguably the single cleanest explanation for the ETF outflows. For a long-term ETH holder, staking is a bonus on top of price exposure; for an allocator comparing yields on a spreadsheet, it is currently a reason to wait. If you are weighing the trade-off yourself, our guide to whether Ethereum staking is still worth it in 2026 walks through the rewards, lock-up mechanics, and risks in detail.

Number 4: Funding rates just hit their lowest since June's bottom

Crypto analyst Ted Pillows reported that Ethereum's funding rate — the periodic payment between longs and shorts in perpetual futures — had fallen to its lowest level since June's market bottom. Negative or unusually low funding means traders are paying to hold short positions, or at least that leveraged longs have been flushed out. Our recent open-interest analysis found Ether was the only major market with negative funding, at about -0.0008% per eight-hour period, even as open interest rose across the board.

Funding extremes cut both ways, and that is exactly why they matter here. Heavy short positioning after a 16% monthly fall is the classic setup for a short squeeze: if ETH reclaims $2,300, shorts who piled in near the lows start buying back, and the move can accelerate beyond what spot demand alone would produce. But the shorts could also be right — if the ETF selling resumes on Monday and $2,250 support fails, the squeeze never comes. The funding data tells you positioning is stretched, not which direction it resolves. Analysts put it plainly: reclaiming $2,300 would be bullish, while failure opens a decline toward $1,850.

Number 5: The ETH/BTC ratio rose 0.79% to 0.02921

The quietest number may be the most important. The ETH/BTC exchange rate rose 0.79% over 24 hours to 0.02921, with Ether gaining about 1.28% to $2,273 while Bitcoin rose 0.51% to $77,816 in the same window, according to TradingView News data. Total crypto market capitalization was about $2.70 trillion, and Bitcoin dominance sat near 59.9% with Ether at 10.6%.

Why does a ratio move of less than 1% matter? Because for most of October, the ratio moved the other way — Ether fell almost twice as far as Bitcoin over 30 days. A ratio that stops falling is the first condition for any Ethereum-led recovery, and for any broader altcoin season: capital has to stop flowing from ETH into BTC before it can flow from BTC into smaller coins. One day does not turn a trend, but it is the print traders will point to if the turn is real. If you are new to reading these signals, our explainer on how to read the Crypto Fear and Greed Index covers the sentiment side — the index sat at 34, in Fear territory, on November 1.

What most people get wrong about this split

Three myths are already circulating about this week's Ethereum data, and each one leads to a bad decision.

• Myth one says ETF outflows mean everyone is selling Ethereum. The reality is narrower: US spot ETF holders sold, while stakers added to a record position and spot buyers defended $2,150–$2,250. ETF flows measure one channel, not the whole market, and they do not identify which investors traded or why.
• Myth two says record staking guarantees a price rise. The reality is slower: staking tightens tradable supply over weeks and months, but it does not stop a determined seller from pushing price down in the meantime. October proved that — staking hit a record while ETH fell 16%.
• Myth three says a negative funding rate is a buy signal by itself. The reality is that funding extremes mark crowded positioning, not direction. Crowded shorts can squeeze, but they can also be right, and the difference is decided by whether $2,250 holds and $2,300 reclaims — not by the funding print alone.
• Myth four says Ethereum is dying because it lagged Bitcoin. The reality is that ETH is 54.2% below its all-time high while Bitcoin is 38.3% below its own — a gap that reflects a brutal month, not a verdict. Assets that lag this hard either keep lagging or snap back violently; the ratio, not the narrative, tells you which.

Three scenarios: what decides Ethereum's November

Strip out the noise and Ethereum's near-term future comes down to three levels.

The base case is the least exciting and therefore the most likely in the near term: a market that has just been through a $6.3 billion exchange breach, a record monthly ETF outflow, and a 16% monthly fall rarely V-bottoms on a quiet Sunday.

What to watch this week: your Ethereum checklist

If you hold ETH, trade it, or are thinking about buying, here is the short checklist that matters this week — just the signals that change the story.

• Check the daily ETF flow print first thing each morning. One inflow day ends the five-session streak; a sixth outflow above $150 million confirms the bear case is in control.
• Watch the $2,250 support and $2,300 resistance pair together. Either level breaking on a daily close matters more than any intraday wick, and a $2,300 reclaim is the squeeze trigger.
• Track the ETH/BTC ratio, not just the dollar price. ETH can rise in dollars while still losing ground to Bitcoin; only the ratio tells you whether Ethereum is actually leading again.
• Note the funding rate direction after any $2,300 reclaim. If funding normalizes as price rises, the squeeze is healthy; if it stays deeply negative, shorts are reloading, not covering.
• Mark November 6 on the calendar for the US employment report. It is the next major macro event, and it lands in a market where rate-cut hopes already took a hit from hot inflation data in October.
• Remember the Binance withdrawal restart before moving funds. Binance reopened Bitcoin withdrawals on November 1 and is restoring networks in phases after the hack — verify the network status before sending anything, and read our beginner's guide to buying Bitcoin safely if you are moving funds for the first time.

Why this split matters beyond Ethereum

Ethereum is not just another coin in this story — it is the market's second-largest asset, the base layer for most of DeFi, and the asset whose ratio against Bitcoin has historically led altcoin seasons. When ETH/BTC turns, money hiding in Bitcoin starts looking for higher-beta homes. When it keeps falling, that money stays put. That is why a 0.79% ratio move earned an article: it is a leading indicator for the whole market's risk appetite.

There is also a structural point worth stating plainly. The October data shows two Ethereums now existing side by side: the ETF Ethereum, where institutions compare a 2.63% staking yield against 4.2% T-bills and sell; and the on-chain Ethereum, where validators keep locking coins and builders keep shipping — including the Fusaka upgrade, which expanded blob capacity eightfold. Those two Ethereums will converge eventually, either because the price falls far enough to make the yield attractive again, or because ETF flows stabilize and the staking supply squeeze does its slow work. For the broader comparison, see our head-to-head on Bitcoin vs Ethereum as investments in 2026.

Frequently asked questions

Why is Ethereum outperforming Bitcoin if its ETFs are losing money?

Because ETF flows are only one channel. Spot buyers defended $2,150–$2,250 after October's 16% fall, stakers kept locking coins at a record pace, and crowded short positioning meant even modest buying lifted price. ETF holders sold; other participants bought. The price reflects the net of all of them, not any single flow.

How much money left Ethereum ETFs last week?

US spot Ethereum ETFs recorded $431.4 million in net outflows across five consecutive sessions from October 26 to October 30, according to Farside Investors data. Friday, October 30 alone accounted for $155.7 million, led by BlackRock's ETHA at about $76.6 million. For October as a whole, outflows totaled roughly $1.61 billion, a record month.

What is the Ethereum staking record, and why does it matter?

About 43.8 million ETH — roughly 35.9% of circulating supply — is staked with approximately 814,000 active validators, a record. Staked ETH is not available for trading until withdrawn, so record staking tightens tradable supply over time. It did not prevent October's 16% fall, but it is a structural support that grows every quarter.

What does a negative Ethereum funding rate mean?

It means traders are paying to hold short positions in ETH perpetual futures, or that leveraged longs have been flushed out. Analyst Ted Pillows noted funding fell to its lowest since June's market bottom. Crowded shorts can fuel a squeeze if price reclaims $2,300, but funding alone does not predict direction — it measures positioning, not destiny.

What price levels matter most for ETH right now?

Support at $2,250, resistance at $2,300, and downside toward $1,850 if support fails. Analysts cited by crypto.news framed it as a binary: reclaiming $2,300 would be bullish, while failure opens a decline below $1,850. The October low near $2,150 is the next support below $2,250.

Is Ethereum a good buy at $2,270?

That depends on your time horizon and risk tolerance, and this article is not financial advice. Short-term traders should watch the $2,250/$2,300 levels and the daily ETF prints. Longer-term holders should weigh the record staking position against the yield gap versus T-bills and the ongoing ETF selling.

Conclusion: believe the split, not either side of it

Ethereum's week makes sense only if you hold two facts at once: institutions sold $431.4 million of ETH funds in five days, and the network locked a record 43.8 million ETH into staking anyway. The first fact explains why ETH fell 16% in October. The second explains why it bounced 1.1% on Sunday and beat Bitcoin on the ratio. Neither fact cancels the other, and the traders who profit from the next move will be the ones watching $2,250, $2,300, and the daily ETF print.

The split will resolve, as splits always do, in one direction: a $2,300 reclaim with ETF inflows, or a $2,250 failure with a sixth outflow day. Until then, the most honest summary of Ethereum is the one the numbers already gave us — an asset being sold by Wall Street and locked up by its own network at the same time, with a crowded short trade sitting in between.

Sources: Farside Investors ETF flows via crypto.news, TokenPost, and EconoTimes; CryptoQuant; Bitwise Q3 2026 staking report; SoSoValue via BigGo Finance. Not financial advice.