Bitcoin vs Treasury Bonds: Why Bloomberg's McGlone Says $80,000 Decides What Happens Next

Bitcoin has spent two years with everything going for it — Wall Street ETFs, a pro-crypto White House, and a price that ran from $15,000 to $126,000 — and it is still losing to the most boring asset on earth: US Treasury bonds. Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone's IBIT/TLT ratio stood at 81 on October 30, 2026, a full 19% below its end-of-2024 baseline of 100. Bitcoin now trades near $78,000, below the $80,000 line McGlone says decides what happens next.

That single number reframes the whole market. The question for November is no longer whether Bitcoin is "up" — it is up 1% in 24 hours — but whether it can reclaim $80,000 before a week of overhead resistance, a fearful market, and a reopening futures market decide otherwise. This article explains what the bond comparison really measures, the five price levels that matter now, and three scenarios for what comes next.

What McGlone Actually Measured

McGlone's warning, reported by U.Today on November 1, 2026, is built on a ratio between two exchange-traded funds: BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) and the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT). The ratio is set to 100 at the end of 2024, so a reading of 81 means the Bitcoin fund has underperformed the long-bond fund by 19% on that normalized measure since then. It does not mean Bitcoin's own price fell 19% over the same period, and it is not a direct comparison of Bitcoin against bond yields — a distinction that matters before anyone panics or celebrates.

Why does the comparison sting? Because the starting point was supposed to be Bitcoin's coronation. The end of 2024 marked the first full year of US spot Bitcoin ETFs and Donald Trump's shift from crypto critic to vocal supporter. On McGlone's reading, even with those tailwinds, Bitcoin's ETF has not outperformed a long-duration Treasury fund since then. The ratio, he said, has struggled to hold above its 100 baseline since the fourth quarter of 2025. He also flagged a second fact: IBIT is roughly four times as volatile as TLT. Bitcoin holders took about four times the turbulence for a worse result on this measure.

McGlone's conclusion is a warning, not a prophecy. He said continued weakness below $80,000 could signal further trouble for crypto markets, and raised the possibility that Bitcoin's strongest period may already have passed. That is his interpretation of past relative performance, not a settled forecast — but it is the kind of warning that matters precisely because it comes from a strategist watching bonds, not a crypto influencer selling a moon target.

Bitcoin at $78,000: The Full Picture on November 1

Bitcoin traded near $78,100 at 09:13 UTC on November 1, 2026, according to CoinGecko data cited in the report — up about 1% over 24 hours, down 3.1% over seven days, and down 9.25% over 30 days. Other snapshots from the same day put the price between $77,861 and $77,980, with a 24-hour range roughly from $77,262 to $78,285. The October monthly candle closed at $77,582 against an open of $83,624, down 7.2% after a 6.4% gain in September. The month's high was $87,220 on October 2; its low was $76,326 on October 30, the day after the Binance hack.

The backdrop is a market still digesting the largest crypto hack ever in dollar terms. The FBI attributed the $6.3 billion Binance breach to North Korea's TraderTraitor group, and Binance reopened BTC, ETH and BNB withdrawals on Sunday morning after saying it had replenished 90% of what was stolen. More than $1.6 billion in leveraged bets were wiped out in the sell-off, and Bitcoin fell to a six-week low near $77,300 on Thursday before steadying. Twenty-four-hour liquidations have since shrunk to around $49 million, funding rates sit at the baseline 0.01%, and the Crypto Fear & Greed Index registered 34, classified as Fear.

The wider market tells the same story of a pause, not a rout. Total crypto market capitalization stood near $2.64 trillion, Bitcoin dominance held around 59–60%, and Ethereum traded near $2,265–$2,270, up about 1%. XRP hovered near $1.25, BNB near $705–$712, and Solana slipped to about $95. Thirteen of the top 50 coins finished the week higher, but the median move was negative. Bitcoin sits 38.2% below its all-time high of $126,080 from October 6, 2025.

The Five Levels That Decide November

Technical data from November 1 shows Bitcoin boxed in by its own moving averages. Every short-term and intermediate average has flipped to overhead resistance, forming a ceiling that stretches from roughly $79,050 to $82,000. Here are the levels traders are watching, in order from floor to ceiling:

• Support near $77,239: the lower Bollinger Band, just under the current price. A daily close below it opens the way back toward the October 30 low of $76,326.
• First resistance near $79,050: the 7-day simple moving average. Reclaiming it would be the first sign that buyers, not sellers, control the short term.
• The decision line at $80,000: McGlone's level and a round-number psychological barrier. A sustained move above it weakens the bond-underperformance warning; failure here keeps it intact.
• Middle resistance near $80,919: the 20-day moving average, which doubles as the middle Bollinger Band. This is where the recent compression either breaks upward or fails.
• Heavy resistance near $81,975: the 50-day moving average, just below the $85,000 rejection of October 21 that started the deeper correction. Clearing all five levels is what a real recovery looks like.

The compression itself is a signal. Bitcoin's intraday range on November 1 was roughly $805, well under half the 14-period average true range of about $1,896 — a session defined by compression rather than commitment. The RSI at 37.70 sits in the lower half of neutral, approaching oversold without crossing it, while the Stochastic oscillator sits below 20, territory conventionally associated with exhausted selling. Binance futures open interest of about $7.45 billion, down 0.91% in 24 hours, shows traders are not rushing to rebuild leveraged bets after the $1.57 billion liquidation flush.

Three Scenarios for What Happens Next

Nobody can know which path Bitcoin takes, but the levels above turn guesswork into a checklist. Here are three scenarios, with the trigger for each and what it would mean for the bond comparison.

Scenario	Trigger	What it means
Bull: Reclaim and hold $80,000	Daily closes above $80,919 (SMA 20), then $81,975 (SMA 50)	McGlone's warning weakens; the IBIT/TLT ratio gets room to climb back toward 100; fear fades as ETF flows stabilize.
Base: Sideways between $76,500 and $79,000	Price holds the lower Bollinger Band but fails at $79,050–$80,000	The most likely near-term path on current data; compression continues until the CME futures reopen and the Asian open force a decision.
Bear: Break below $76,326	Daily close under the October 30 low on rising volume	The bond-underperformance story deepens; the IBIT/TLT ratio slides further below 81; a retest of lower supports comes into play and altcoin weakness spreads.

The near-term risks to the base case are dated and concrete. CME futures reopen at 6:00 PM ET on Sunday, followed by the Asian open, both coming after a 2.9% Friday drop in the Nasdaq and $643 million in outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs. Monday's 9:30 AM ET stock-market open is the next real liquidity test. If buyers cannot defend $77,239 into that window, the bear scenario gains credibility fast.

What Most People Get Wrong About the Bond Comparison

The IBIT/TLT ratio is already being misread in both directions, so here is what it does and does not say. First, it does not say Bitcoin is "dead" or that bonds are a better investment for everyone — it compares two funds over a specific window, and TLT itself has had brutal stretches as rates moved. Second, it does not say Bitcoin fell 19% — the 19% is the ratio's distance below its own baseline, not Bitcoin's price change. Third, it does not prove cause: the ratio cannot tell us whether ETF flows, the hack, macro rates, or simple profit-taking after a run to $126,000 did the damage. Fourth, volatility cuts both ways — four times the volatility of TLT is what let Bitcoin run from $15,000 to $126,000 in the first place, and it is also what makes 30-day drops of 9% routine rather than catastrophic.

The honest contrarian read is this: Bitcoin losing to bonds since the end of 2024 is embarrassing for the "institutional adoption changes everything" thesis, but it is also exactly the kind of relative-performance washout that has preceded past recoveries. Analyst Benjamin Cowen drew a parallel the same weekend, noting silver crashed roughly 60% from about $120 to around $49 while Bitcoin held near $78,000, and suggesting Bitcoin could bottom after metals and recover in 2027. That is a prediction, not a fact — but it shows why the bond comparison should be treated as a warning light on the dashboard, not a verdict.

What This Means for Holders, Traders, and New Buyers

For long-term holders, the bond comparison is a portfolio question, not a sell signal on its own: if the asset you hold for asymmetric upside is trailing a bond fund over nearly two years while carrying four times the volatility, the burden of proof is on the upside case — and that case now rests on reclaiming $80,000, not on narratives about adoption. For traders, the playbook is mechanical: watch $77,239 below and $79,050–$80,919 above, size positions for a compression breakout in either direction, and treat a close below $76,326 as the invalidation of the sideways thesis. For new buyers, the fear reading of 34 and the washed-out liquidation data argue against chasing a single green day — the market just demonstrated, with a $6.3 billion hack and $1.57 billion in liquidations, how fast leverage unwinds.

Two older guides on this site are worth reading alongside this analysis. If you are thinking about using Bitcoin rather than just holding it, our guide to borrowing against Bitcoin without selling explains the collateral risks that matter most when volatility is four times that of bonds. And if the bond comparison has you thinking about how traditional assets are moving on-chain, our explainer on tokenized stocks and 24/7 on-chain trading shows why the line between crypto and traditional finance is blurring from both sides. For the security side of this week's story, see our coverage of the FBI naming North Korea in the $6.3 billion Binance hack and what the $80,000 squeeze setup looked like in our earlier Bitcoin $80,500 squeeze analysis.

FAQs

What is the IBIT/TLT ratio?

It is Bloomberg strategist Mike McGlone's comparison of BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) against the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), normalized to 100 at the end of 2024. A reading of 81 on October 30, 2026, means the Bitcoin fund trailed the bond fund by 19% on that measure since the baseline date.

Does a ratio of 81 mean Bitcoin fell 19%?

No. The 19% is the ratio's distance below its own baseline, not Bitcoin's price change. Bitcoin traded near $78,100 on November 1, down 9.25% over 30 days and 38.2% below its $126,080 all-time high — those are separate figures.

Why is $80,000 the level to watch?

McGlone pointed to $80,000 as the line below which continued Bitcoin weakness could signal broader trouble for crypto markets. It also sits between the 7-day average ($79,050) and the 20-day average ($80,919), making it the gateway to reclaiming the moving-average stack.

Is Bitcoin really more volatile than Treasury bonds?

On McGlone's comparison, IBIT is about four times as volatile as TLT. That matches Bitcoin's behavior: a 30-day drop of 9% and an intraday range that can exceed $1,800 are normal for BTC and unthinkable for a long-bond fund.

Could Bitcoin still recover in 2027?

Possibly — analysts including Benjamin Cowen have suggested Bitcoin could bottom after metals and recover in 2027 — but that is a prediction, not a guarantee. A recovery case needs price confirmation first: daily closes above $80,919 and then $81,975.

What should I watch this week?

Three dated events: the CME futures reopen at 6:00 PM ET Sunday, the Asian open that follows, and Monday's 9:30 AM ET stock-market open after Friday's Nasdaq drop and $643 million in Bitcoin ETF outflows. Watch whether $77,239 holds and whether $80,000 is reclaimed.

Conclusion

Bitcoin losing to Treasury bonds since the end of 2024 is the most uncomfortable number in crypto right now — not because bonds are exciting, but because Bitcoin had every advantage and still trails by 19% on McGlone's measure. The market's answer will not come from another narrative; it will come from price. Hold $77,239 and reclaim $80,000, and the warning fades. Fail at $80,000 again, or break $76,326, and the bond comparison stops being a talking point and starts being the story of this cycle. Watch the levels, ignore the noise, and remember that in a market that just liquidated $1.57 billion in a day, the most valuable position is often the one sized to survive being wrong. Sources for the data in this article include The Bit Journal's report on McGlone's warning, Blockchain.News technical analysis, Stocktwits' weekend market report, CoinPulseHQ's weekly wrap, and CryptoPotato's weekend watch. This article is for information only and is not financial advice.