Bitcoin's 'Red Signal' Just Flashed Again — It Called the May Crash, but Failed Twice: 5 Numbers That Decide $75,682 or $80,347

Bitcoin's Guppy chart just flashed the same red signal that preceded the crash below $60,000 in June — but this exact signal also failed twice in 2025, sending prices higher instead. Bitcoin trades at $76,770 on November 3, 2026, down almost 2% in 24 hours, and the next move now hinges on two levels: $75,682 below and $80,347 above. This article explains what the Guppy Multiple Moving Average (GMMA) signal actually means, checks its real track record, and lays out the five numbers that will decide whether Bitcoin breaks down or bounces.

What Just Happened to Bitcoin on November 3

Bitcoin slipped below $77,000 on November 3, 2026, extending a miserable run. According to KuCoin's daily market report, Bitcoin traded at $76,808.90 at 00:00 UTC, down 1.97% in 24 hours, while Ethereum fell to $2,253.08, down 0.98%. The Nasdaq fell 1.07% and the S&P 500 declined 0.51% on the same day, and the Crypto Fear & Greed Index dropped to 26 — firmly in "Fear" territory, down from 37 the previous day and 48 a week earlier.

The sell-off did not arrive out of nowhere. It is the aftershock of the largest crypto heist on record: the FBI has formally blamed TraderTraitor, a group it links to North Korea, for the theft of more than $6 billion from Binance on or about October 29, with total losses put at about $6.3 billion. When Binance restored withdrawals in phases, CNBC reported $4.65 billion in withdrawals against $1.01 billion in deposits on November 1 alone — a net outflow of $3.64 billion in a single day. On top of that, US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $643.3 million in net outflows on October 30, their largest single-day withdrawal since June 25, and another $398.6 million on November 2, taking the seven-day outflow to $738.9 million. Around $366 million in crypto positions were liquidated in 24 hours, according to CoinGlass data cited by WazirX founder Nischal Shetty.

Into this fragile tape, a technical indicator watched by traders around the world has now turned red. The question is whether to trust it — and history says the answer is complicated.

What Is the Guppy Multiple Moving Average?

The Guppy Multiple Moving Average, or GMMA, was built by trader Daryl Guppy and is widely tracked in markets for gauging near-term and long-term trends. Instead of a single moving average, it plots two bundles of averages: a short-term group that tracks what traders are doing right now, and a long-term group that tracks what investors are doing over months. When the short-term bundle sits above the long-term bundle and both are rising, the trend is healthy. When the short-term bundle slips below the long-term bundle and the long-term lines start sloping downward, Guppy calls that a warning of a developing bearish shift in momentum.

That is exactly what CoinDesk reported on November 3, 2026: on Bitcoin's daily chart, the price has dropped below both bundles, the short-term bundle has slipped below the long-term one, and the long-term lines are squeezing together and beginning to slope lower. In plain language, traders have stopped buying dips and investors have stopped defending the trend. It is a red signal — but a red signal is not a prophecy. If you are new to reading charts, our beginner's guide to reading crypto charts explains moving averages and trend signals from first principles.

The GMMA Track Record: Two Crashes It Called, Two Failures Nobody Mentions

Here is the part most coverage skips: the GMMA has produced false signals before, and its wins and losses are both instructive. A similar setup in late May was followed by a sharp crash to below $60,000 in the first week of June. The crossover in late January also paved the way for a drop from roughly $90,000 to around $62,000. Those are the wins, and they were big.

But the signals in August and September 2025 failed. The bearish confirmation came, but prices quickly turned higher. Traders who sold everything on those signals sold the bottom of a dip and watched the market recover without them. That is why the current signal deserves respect but not obedience: it has called two major declines and cried wolf twice in just over a year.

GMMA bearish signal	What happened next	Verdict
Late January 2026	Bitcoin fell from roughly $90,000 to around $62,000	Signal worked
Late May 2026	Sharp crash to below $60,000 in the first week of June	Signal worked
August 2025	Bearish confirmation came, then prices turned higher	Signal failed
September 2025	Bearish confirmation came, then prices turned higher	Signal failed
November 3, 2026	Price below both bundles, short-term below long-term	Undecided — watch $75,682 and $80,347

The pattern matters because it reframes the trade. A GMMA crossover does not predict a crash; it tells you momentum has flipped and the burden of proof has shifted to the buyers. Buyers now have to reclaim levels to invalidate the signal, and sellers have to break support to confirm it. Until one side acts, the signal is a warning light, not a verdict.

5 Numbers That Decide $75,682 or $80,347

The levels come from market data, not guesswork. OwlChart's November 3 morning brief puts the nearer liquidity level below the price at $75,682, and notes that $75,682 was touched before $80,347 in 84% of similar setups over the last 12 months. KuCoin's report frames the same battleground slightly wider: support at $76,000–$76,600 and resistance at $79,500–$80,500. Here are the five numbers that will decide which level breaks first.

Number 1: $75,682 — the liquidity magnet below

Bitcoin's intraday low on November 2 already reached $76,281, uncomfortably close to the $76,000–$76,600 support zone. Below that sits $75,682, where resting buy orders and liquidation clusters concentrate. If that level goes, the next air pocket opens toward the $72,000–$75,000 zone that traders have flagged since the midterm-week sell-off began, and the June crash precedent — a GMMA signal followed by a fall below $60,000 — will feel a lot less historical. A clean daily close below $75,682 confirms the bearish GMMA shift; a bounce from it keeps the signal unconfirmed.

Number 2: $80,347 — the reclaim that kills the signal

The upside number is just as precise. A move back above $80,347, and then through the $79,500–$80,500 resistance zone, would put Bitcoin back above the moving-average bundles and invalidate the bearish crossover — exactly what happened after the failed August and September 2025 signals. Note the asymmetry: the market has to travel further up than down to settle the argument, which is why the odds, on liquidity alone, lean toward $75,682 being touched first. That 84% statistic is not a prediction, but it explains why dip-buyers are being patient rather than aggressive.

Number 3: $738.9 million — the ETF bleed in 7 days

Technical signals do not move markets alone; money flows do. US spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $643.3 million on October 30 and $398.6 million on November 2, for $738.9 million over seven trading days. Weakening US demand shows up elsewhere too: the Coinbase premium stayed negative between -0.18% and -0.27%, a sign Americans are not paying up for Bitcoin, and options traders are paying up for downside protection instead. Implied volatility for Bitcoin options expiring November 4 rose to approximately 43.5%, versus around 36% for later expiries — traders are hedging the midterm vote, not betting on a rally. For context on how these funds work, see our guide to how spot Bitcoin ETFs work. The counterweight: Strategy resumed accumulation, buying 811 BTC worth $65.5 million, a reminder that some large buyers see the same prices as opportunity.

Number 4: 71.9% long — the crowded trade that can cascade

Binance long accounts held 71.9% of positions against 28.1% for shorts, a long-to-short ratio of 2.56, even as the price fell. At the same time, Bitcoin's open interest rose 2.22% over 24 hours while the price declined — a combination that indicates short-sellers are initiating new positions into weakness. A market where most traders are long, while new shorts pile in and ETF money leaves, is primed for liquidation cascades: a break of $75,682 would force leveraged longs to sell, pushing the price lower and triggering more sales. That is the mechanical reason the GMMA signal matters right now — it is flashing while positioning is lopsided, not while the market is balanced.

Number 5: 26 — fear, but not extreme fear yet

The Fear & Greed Index at 26 means fear, but not the single-digit capitulation readings that have historically marked major bottoms. Sentiment data from Santiment found Bitcoin recording just 0.69 bullish comments for every bearish comment after the Binance hack — negativity is real, but it has not reached the "everyone has given up" extreme that contrarians love. That leaves two readings open: either fear deepens toward extreme fear and marks a bottom, or fear stays middling while the price grinds lower, which is what happened through much of the four-week slide. Watch whether the index falls below 20 on the next leg down; that, historically, is where brave buying has paid best — and where it has also hurt most when the decline continued.

Bull, Base and Bear: 3 Scenarios for the Midterm Week

No single indicator decides a market, so here is how the week can play out, with the level that confirms each path.

Scenario	Trigger level	What follows
Bear: GMMA confirms	Daily close below $75,682	Liquidation cascade toward $72,000–$75,000; Fear & Greed toward extreme fear; ETF outflows extend
Base: range holds	Bitcoin stays between $76,000 and $80,500	Choppy midterm-week trading; options volatility fades after November 4; market waits for the November 6 jobs report
Bull: signal invalidated	Close above $80,347	Short squeeze as 71.9% long positioning flips; reclaim of the moving-average bundles; midterm seasonality tailwind

The calendar gives the bull case its best argument. Seasonality is positive: past data shows Bitcoin tends to rally after midterm elections, and analyst Michaël van de Poppe has argued the correction is already "heavily" priced in — even if Democrats win, "nothing big" is likely to happen, most likely more "calm," and "actually bullish for the markets, just like every year after the midterms has been great." The bear case has the tape: four straight red weeks, a Nasdaq in technical correction, semiconductors under pressure, and a $6.3 billion hack still working through exchange balance sheets. CoinDesk also reported Binance has spent about half its SAFU bitcoin — roughly $580 million — which keeps trust, not just price, in question.

What Most People Get Wrong About Red Signals

The most common mistake is treating a bearish indicator as a sell command. The GMMA is a momentum gauge, not a fortune teller: it tells you the trend has weakened, not how far the fall will go or when it ends. The second mistake is the opposite — dismissing the signal because it failed twice in 2025. A fire alarm that went off falsely twice is still worth checking the third time, especially when the building is already smoking: ETF outflows, negative Coinbase premium, and a record hack are real smoke. The third mistake is trading the signal without a level. "Bearish" without "$75,682 confirms it, $80,347 invalidates it" is just a mood, and moods lose money in both directions.

For long-term holders, the signal changes almost nothing about the big picture: Bitcoin remains 39.09% below its all-time high of $126,080, with a $1.54 trillion market capitalisation and 59.27% dominance of a $2.316 trillion crypto market in euro terms. For anyone deciding whether to buy, sell or hold this week, the signal changes the tactics: position size, entry levels, and patience. If you are building a position rather than trading a signal, our dollar-cost averaging guide explains why spreading entries beats trying to catch a single bottom — especially in a week where a single headline can move the price 2% overnight.

Checklist: What to Watch Before You Act

• Daily close test: does Bitcoin close below $75,682 or reclaim $80,347 first — that single close settles the GMMA debate for now.
• ETF flow reversal: watch for a day of net inflows after $738.9 million left in seven days; flows turned the October rally and can turn this decline.
• Midterm outcome and volatility: options volatility for the November 4 expiry sits near 43.5%; a calm result should crush that premium fast.
• Jobs report on November 6: payrolls have moved Bitcoin more than Fed decisions in recent cycles, and this report lands two days after the vote.
• Binance trust signals: withdrawal queues, SAFU disclosures and any further hack attribution will matter more than chart patterns while confidence is fragile.
• Your own plan: decide your buy, sell and hold levels before the market moves, not during a liquidation cascade when the Fear & Greed Index is flashing red.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Guppy Multiple Moving Average?

The GMMA plots two bundles of moving averages — a short-term group tracking traders and a long-term group tracking investors. When the short-term bundle falls below the long-term bundle and the long-term lines slope downward, it signals a bearish shift in momentum. It is a trend gauge, not a price target.

Is Bitcoin's GMMA red signal reliable?

Mixed. It preceded the crash below $60,000 in June 2026 and the fall from roughly $90,000 to around $62,000 in January, but the same setup failed in August and September 2025, when prices turned higher after the bearish confirmation. Treat it as a warning that buyers must reclaim levels, not as proof of a crash.

What price level confirms the bearish signal?

A daily close below $75,682, the nearer liquidity level identified on November 3, would confirm the breakdown, with the $76,000–$76,600 support zone breaking first. A close above $80,347 would invalidate the signal and point to a short squeeze.

Why is Bitcoin falling in November 2026?

The immediate drivers are the $6.3 billion Binance hack attributed by the FBI to North Korea-linked TraderTraitor, $738.9 million in Bitcoin ETF outflows over seven days, heavy leveraged liquidations, a Nasdaq correction, and uncertainty ahead of the US midterm elections — all while the Fear & Greed Index sits at 26.

Does the midterm election usually help Bitcoin?

Historically, Bitcoin has tended to rally after midterm elections, and analysts argue the current correction is already heavily priced in. Seasonality is a tailwind for the bull case, but it has never overridden a live breakdown in progress — which is why the $75,682 and $80,347 levels matter more than the calendar alone.

Should I buy Bitcoin at $76,770?

That depends on your time horizon and risk tolerance, not on one indicator. Traders are watching $75,682 for confirmation and $80,347 for invalidation; long-term buyers often spread entries over time rather than betting everything on a single level. Never invest more than you can afford to lose, and consider moving coins to self-custody after buying — see our guide to storing crypto safely.

Conclusion

Bitcoin's red GMMA signal is real, and its track record is genuinely split: two crashes called, two false alarms in 2025. What makes this instance different is the backdrop — a record $6.3 billion hack, $738.9 million in ETF outflows in a week, 71.9% of traders long into falling prices, and a midterm vote that has options volatility at 43.5%. The market will settle the argument at $75,682 or $80,347, probably before the November 6 jobs report. Until then, the smart move is not to worship or ignore the signal, but to trade the levels it gives you: below $75,682, the bears have confirmation; above $80,347, the signal joins its 2025 failures. Either way, the next few days will tell us which kind of red signal this one was. Sources: CoinDesk, KuCoin, Outlook Money. This article is for information only and is not financial advice.